Social Security is generally the largest source of income in retirement, but many seniors think benefits have fallen behind inflation. The Motley Fool last year surveyed 2,000 retired workers, and the majority said the cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) in 2024 and 2025 failed to keep up with rising prices.

Unfortunately, beneficiaries will likely receive an even smaller raise next year. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group, recently revised its 2026 COLA forecast down to 2.2%. Retired workers have not received a smaller pay increase since 2021. But there may be worse news in store for beneficiaries.

Here are the important details.

How Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustments are calculated

Retired workers on Social Security get annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) designed to ensure benefit payments increase in lockstep with inflation. Those COLAs are based on a subset of the Consumer Price Index known as the CPI-W, which measures price changes based on the spending patterns of hourly workers.

The math is simple: The third-quarter CPI-W from the current year (July through September) is divided by the third-quarter CPI-W from the prior year, and the percent increase becomes the COLA in the following year. For example, the CPI-W increased 2.5% in the third quarter of 2024, so Social Security benefits received a 2.5% COLA in 2025.

Why the latest COLA forecast is bad news for retirees on Social Security

CPI-W inflation measured 2.7% in February, down from 3% in January. That led The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) to lower its 2026 COLA forecast from 2.3% to 2.2%. But that alone is not a problem because COLAs simply compensate beneficiaries for rising prices. Put differently, the size of the COLA is irrelevant so long as it matches inflation.

The issue lies in the fact that Social Security’s COLAs are based on CPI-W inflation. As mentioned, the CPI-W measures price changes based on the spending habits of hourly employees. But working adults are typically younger than retirees on Social Security, and young people spend money differently than seniors.

How Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustments are calculated

Retired workers on Social Security get annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) designed to ensure benefit payments increase in lockstep with inflation. Those COLAs are based on a subset of the Consumer Price Index known as the CPI-W, which measures price changes based on the spending patterns of hourly workers.

The math is simple: The third-quarter CPI-W from the current year (July through September) is divided by the third-quarter CPI-W from the prior year, and the percent increase becomes the COLA in the following year. For example, the CPI-W increased 2.5% in the third quarter of 2024, so Social Security benefits received a 2.5% COLA in 2025.

Why the latest COLA forecast is bad news for retirees on Social Security

CPI-W inflation measured 2.7% in February, down from 3% in January. That led The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) to lower its 2026 COLA forecast from 2.3% to 2.2%. But that alone is not a problem because COLAs simply compensate beneficiaries for rising prices. Put differently, the size of the COLA is irrelevant so long as it matches inflation.

The issue lies in the fact that Social Security’s COLAs are based on CPI-W inflation. As mentioned, the CPI-W measures price changes based on the spending habits of hourly employees. But working adults are typically younger than retirees on Social Security, and young people spend money differently than seniors.

Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab will buy fast-growing startup Wiz for about $32 billion in its biggest deal ever, the Google parent said Tuesday, as it doubles down on cybersecurity to sharpen its edge in the cloud-computing race against Amazon.com and Microsoft.

The blockbuster deal will make Wiz part of Google’s cloud unit and strengthen the company’s efforts in cybersecurity solutions that companies use to remove critical risks.

REGULATORY CONCERNS

Beneficiaries of the US Social Security system are in luck. It has already been confirmed that the Administration will issue a payment of up to $2,000 to certain individuals, scheduled for March 19th, including retirees and individuals who are part of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI).

In this sense, the American Social Security has confirmed that payments are issued according to the beneficiaries’ dates of birth. Therefore, it follows that those who were born between the 1st and the 10th of any month receive the money on the second Wednesday of the month; those who were born between the 11th and the 20th get it on the third; and those from the 21st to the 31st get it on the last day of the month. On the other hand, workers who retired before May 1997 and beneficiaries of the SSI do not follow this payment schedule, as the Administration sends them the money in the first days of the month.

People who will receive $2,000 from Social Security

According to information provided by the United States Public Administration, on March 19th thousands of Social Security beneficiaries will receive a significant amount of money in their bank accounts. Thus, people who are registered with this institution and who have met the established requirements may be recipients of this amount.

Thus, as reported by Social Security and according to the distribution calendar and the SSA estimates table, this Wednesday, March 19, retirees born between the 11th and the 20th of the month will receive an average payment of $2,000. This leaves only one payment left for the third month of the year, which will be made to people born between the 21st and the 31st and will be issued on March 26th.

Therefore, according to Social Security, the month of March will end with good news for Social Security beneficiaries, especially for retirees who are registered as pensioners in the United States Public Administration.

Average payment for Social Security retirees

The amount of the payments varies according to the history and case of each beneficiary. However, the SSA has estimates and simulators that allow people, whether single or families, to better plan for their retirement. In this way, based on the years worked and the age of retirement, it is possible to make an initial estimate of the amount that each worker will receive.

However, according to official information, the average payment for a worker who retires in 2025 is $1,976 per month and up to $3,089 for couples. However, the exact amount depends on several factors, such as the number of years of contributions to the system and the retirement age, among others. Otherwise, beneficiaries of the US Social Security have average payments of $967 if they are individuals and $1,450 if they are couples who declare jointly, as reported by the Administration.

Google-parent Alphabet is in advanced negotiations to buy Israeli cybersecurity company Wiz with an offer of more than $30 billion, according to a source familiar with the matter, marking its largest potential acquisition to date.

Alphabet’s latest offer is higher by roughly a third of the $23 billion deal it offered last year, which Wiz called off in July 2024 over concerns it would not clear antitrust hurdles.

Wiz had said in an internal memo at the time that it would focus on an initial public offering. Neither company has publicly acknowledged a deal. They did not immediately reply on Monday to Reuters requests for comment.

The deal hasn’t been signed and could still change, the person familiar with the development said. The Wall Street Journal on Monday first reported the news of the talks between the companies, citing sources.

If the Wiz acquisition goes ahead, it would help Alphabet tap the cybersecurity market and expand its booming cloud infrastructure business, which generated more than $43 billion in revenue last year.

While U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is widely expected to drop some antitrust policies pursued under the administration of President Joe Biden, a deal that creates a cybersecurity behemoth is still likely to draw scrutiny.

Wall Street had expected a bump in dealmaking after Trump’s election, but the tariffs he has imposed or threatened have roiled global markets and left businesses and investors uncertain about big decisions.

Wiz provides cloud-based cybersecurity solutions powered by artificial intelligence that help companies identify and remove critical risks on cloud platforms.

It works with multiple cloud providers such as Microsoft and Amazon and counts companies from Morgan Stanley to DocuSign among its customers. With 900 employees across the United States, Europe, Asia and Israel, Wiz previously said it planned to add 400 workers globally in 2024.

Interest in the cybersecurity industry has surged since the global CrowdStrike outage last year, making enterprises more concerned about protecting their digital infrastructures.

Wiz was last valued at $12 billion in a private funding round in May 2024.

The erratic strategies adopted by US President Donald Trump are astonishing and irritating Washington’s allies, causing fear among American consumers, denting investor confidence, fomenting uncertainty and hurting the established world financial architecture.

The US administration under Trump has ratcheted up tariffs and brought about turmoil in stock markets, leading to corporate bankruptcies.

US consumers may soon grumble about prices of household goods as the domestic economy may fall prey to the looming inflation and recession fears. Separately, astute business leaders are clamouring against the unpredictable policies of Trump while officials and staff at public and private organisations face increased uncertainty and the risk of losing jobs.

According to The Economist, the S&P 500 index fell by another 4% in the week to March 12, leaving the world’s most watched stock market down by 9% since its recent peak. The Nasdaq index, dominated by tech firms, has fallen by 12%. It is not quite the bold new era of American growth promised by Trump in his election campaign. The president’s unpredictable trade policies have got things going.

On March 12, in the latest twist in Trump’s trade saga, he levied 25% tariffs on imports of aluminium and steel. After years of growth, the health of the US economy is a source of concern, too, with worries triggered by a steady drip of discouraging data.

Statistics showed that consumer prices rose more slowly in February than analysts had expected. But the relief for shoppers also hints that America’s economy is shifting into a lower gear. Such news is beginning to undermine the idea of American exceptionalism; after all, investors have seen much better returns in China and Europe this year.

CNN reported that US corporate bankruptcies totaled 129 through the first two months of 2025, the highest total for this period in a year since 2010 in the aftermath of the Great Recession, according to the S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Just 20 days ago, the US stock market was sitting at all-time highs. The American economy appeared to be growing at a solid pace. And a recession was nowhere in sight. Now, the R-word is seemingly everywhere. Recession fears are rocking the stock market. GDP forecasts are getting slashed. Trump and his economic team are facing questions about a possible recession – and failing to address mounting jitters about the economy.

When it comes to Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Canadian premier Mark Carney warned that a predatory America wants “our water, our land, our country”.

Eminent regional expert and Centre for South Asia and International Studies Islamabad Executive Director Dr Mehmoodul Hassan Khan said it seems that “Trumpcession” is gaining momentum further, consolidating speculations of an imminent recession in the US that are rattling its stock markets and the economy alike.

On top of that, Trump’s brinkmanship and stop-start approach while imposing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China have continued to hit common consumers and markets (crude oil and gold), pushing them into turmoil.

Surprisingly, right from the beginning, Trump was putting his political whims and wishes ahead of the strength of the economy and the stock market, raising the spectre of a US recession, which had increased from 15% to 20%.

Moreover, political inclusiveness, policy confusion and mixed messaging are creating a huge budget deficit. It should be a wake-up call to the US government because the first five months of fiscal year 2025 hit a record deficit of $1.147 trillion, including $307 billion in February 2025, highlighting the threat of a government shutdown.

Trump’s promise of ushering in a new era of prosperity for the Americans is still a far cry. Economic follies have increased economic pains. If the US government remains committed to its inconsistent economic and trade policies, even in the face of much worse data, recession risk would rise further.

Businessmen and investors are worried about big cuts to the government workforce and spending. A drastic decrease in retail sales vividly reflects high inflation and low consumer confidence. Thus, a drop in the stock market could trigger a further clampdown on spending, especially among higher-income households.

Trump’s warning of a little disturbance before bringing back wealth to America is clearly demonstrating doomsday ahead of prosperity and stability, increasing chances of recession-cum-adjustments, corrections and preferences, although the risk of recession is real like wolves knocking at the door.

Statistical data of many international organisations clearly indicates the US policy tilting away from growth and snaking of its 500 biggest companies, flashing a serious risk of recession.

When it comes to discomfort being faced by Americans, Khan said, “Ironically, by attracting his voters Trump never said that there might be a recession on the road to his so-called new golden age. The Black Monday should not be dubbed as a momentary blip, but an economic blast moving away from the promised prosperity to deepening chaos and uncertainty.

“Setting off trade wars with US neighbours, indiscriminately firing thousands of government workers, pursuing a global exit policy [USAID, WHO, WTO, climate change agreement] and punishing the weaker nations are fracturing an 80-year bond of trust with allies directly hurting its economy, industries, segments of society and supply chains.”

Now, the US consumer confidence is softening, hiring is slowing and fears of a recession are growing – the last thing the economy needs is a president whipping up uncertainty.

The US economic contraction may be averted by constructive competition and cooperation with all trading partners including China instead of blindly following so-called instinct spirits achieving nothing, but massive volatility.

Some of the 50 million-plus retirees relying on Social Security benefits are about to see their next check hit their bank accounts on Wednesday, March 19. The Social Security Administration (SSA) will also be sending out payments to those receiving disability benefits and survivor benefits—so plenty of folks are watching their mailboxes and bank balances closely.

When are Social Security checks going out in March 2025?

Each month, Social Security follows a three-Wednesday payment schedule, meaning that most of the 73 million recipients get their money based on their birth date rather than all at once.

For March, this staggered system rolled out like this:

• March 12: Payments went to beneficiaries born between the 1st and 10th of the month.
• March 19: Up next are those born between the 11th and 20th—their deposits will arrive on this day.
• March 26: The final group—those with birthdays from the 21st to the 31st—will receive their payments.

If your birthday falls in the middle of the month, you’re next in line for a March 19 deposit—because Social Security likes to celebrate birthdays with direct deposits, not balloons.

Who doesn’t follow the Three-Wednesday payment schedule?

Not everyone gets their Social Security check based on their birthday. In fact, there are a few exceptions to the three-Wednesday rule:

If you started receiving retirement, disability, or survivor benefits before May 1997, this schedule doesn’t apply to you. Instead, your payments land on the third of each month, no matter when your birthday is. The only exception? If the third falls on a weekend or holiday, in which case the payment is sent earlier. For March 2025, this group received their checks on Monday, March 3.

Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients follow an entirely different schedule. SSI is a separate program from Social Security; it provides benefits to those with limited income and resources, regardless of their work history. These payments always arrive on the first of the month, unless that date happens to be a weekend or holiday. Since March 1 fell on a Saturday this year, SSI beneficiaries got their money a day early on Friday, February 28.

Some Americans qualify for both Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and regular Social Security benefits, which means they get two separate payments each month. If you’re in this group, your SSI check should have landed on February 28, while your regular Social Security payment arrived on March 3.

So, while most people have to wait for their assigned Wednesday, a lucky few still get their money on a fixed date, no birthday required!

Want to plan ahead? The Social Security Administration (SSA) has a full 2025 payment schedule available online. You can check it out on their official website to make sure you know exactly when to expect your next deposit.

How much do retired workers get from Social Security?

For the 52 million retirees in the U.S. relying on Social Security, the average monthly check comes in at just under $2,000. To be precise, the current average retirement payment is $1,978, according to the latest figures from the Social Security Administration (SSA).

Of course, not everyone gets the same amount. In 2025, the maximum possible monthly benefit for a retired worker is $5,108—but hitting that number means years of high earnings and waiting until full retirement age to cash in. For most folks, their Social Security check won’t make them rich, but it’s a crucial piece of their retirement puzzle.

Not everyone receiving Social Security benefits is a retiree. In fact, millions of Americans rely on disability, survivor benefits, or Supplemental Security Income (SSI) to make ends meet. Here’s how those payments stack up, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA):

• Disabled workers bring in an average of $1,580 per month.
• Survivor benefits provide around $1,546 monthly to those who qualify.
• SSI recipients, who typically have limited income and resources, receive an average of $714 each month.

While these numbers aren’t exactly enough to live large, they serve as a vital financial safety net for millions across the country.

President Donald Trump’s efforts to slash federal government spending have ignited a new debate about the future of Social Security.

One idea that has been brought up before — privatizing the now public program — is getting new attention.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Wednesday he supports more individual ownership in Social Security, though he said he would not necessarily use the term privatizing because it has toxic connotations.

“The problem we have now, we have a plan called Social Security that doesn’t grow with the economy,” said Fink, speaking at the BlackRock retirement summit in Washington, D.C.

‘Real battle’ brewing over Social Security’s future

An Australian lawyer has sounded the alarm over the $3.5 trillion wealth transfer that Baby Boomers are about to pass on to younger generations. Will disputes are already rising due to growing wealth and Aussies are being warned they could “squander away tens of thousands” trying to get their inheritance if their loved ones don’t have their affairs in order.

Baby Boomers, who are Australia’s richest generation, are expected to transfer $3.5 trillion to younger generations over the coming decades. The huge scale of wealth means the stakes are higher for many Aussies when it comes to their inheritance.

Justice Family Lawyers principal Hayder Shkara told Yahoo Finance he expected disputes over wills would continue to rise as Baby Boomers begin the “great wealth transfer”.

“This is the biggest intergenerational wealth shift in history, and with that comes heightened tensions, particularly in families where expectations don’t align with reality,” Shkara said.

“One of the key drivers of these disputes is the rising value of real estate. A house that was purchased decades ago for a modest sum could now be worth millions, and that changes how family members perceive their entitlements.”

In Sydney, for example, the average property value has skyrocketed to $1.18 million.

“We also see a rise in blended families, estranged relationships, and informal caregiving arrangements, all of which can complicate inheritance matters,” Shkara said.

Inheritances have already more than doubled, with the Productivity Commission finding they had increased from $24 billion in 2022 to $52 billion in 2018.

Aussies over 60 are expected to transfer an average of $175 billion per year in wealth over the next two decades.

More adults challenging wills

There has already been a significant increase in family provision claims, which is when someone feels they’ve been unfairly left out of a will or didn’t get enough.

Shkara said he commonly saw children who cared for their elderly parents challenge wills when they found their parents had distributed assets equally among all siblings.

OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) — An Oklahoma City retiree says his Social Security benefits were suspended without warning — and with no explanation given when he reached out. He worries it may have to do with the place he was born, and ongoing Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cutbacks.

The man, James McCaffrey, who was born to an active-duty U.S. soldier at an overseas Army base, says because of recent comments from DOGE leader Elon Musk, he’s worried his benefits were cut because of his foreign birthplace.

Earlier this month, Musk, the billionaire head of DOGE, pushed for major cuts to Social Security, calling it a “Ponzi scheme,” claiming the system is rife with people fraudulently receiving benefits.

Particularly, Musk claimed during an interview with Fox Business, with no evidence, that many illegal immigrants are receiving benefits, calling for them to be removed from Social Security’s rolls.

The Hill reported economists say the levels of fraud Musk has talked about “just don’t exist.”

Earlier this month, NBC News reported former Social Security administrator Martin O’Malley warned that DOGE’s cuts to Social Security could disrupt benefits for millions of Americans for the first time since Social Security’s founding.

Now, McCaffrey worries he may have been one of the first of them.

An unexpected bill and unanswered questions

McCaffrey said he started to think something was often when he received an unexpected Medicare bill.

“It said that I needed to pay $740 before the 25th of this month or I was going to lose my Medicare,” McCaffrey said.

That seemed odd, since his Medicare payment is normally deducted from his Social Security check.

“So I called Medicare,” he said. “They returned my call after a wait and told me that they were unable to process it through my Social Security payment, that there was some problem with it. We talked for a bit. He kind of let it out that he thinks it’s a possibility that my Social Security was suspended.”

And that — definitely didn’t make sense to McCaffrey.

“I thanked him for his time and called Social Security,” he said.

After more than two and a half hours on hold with Social Security, he finally got a callback.

“They confirmed that my account was suspended,” McCaffrey said.

He says Social Security never sent him any sort of notice this was happening, so he can’t be certain the exact day his benefits were canceled.

But he knows it must have been sometime between the day he received his February Social Security check early in the month, and Feb. 27, the date written on the bill he received from Medicare.

He asked the Social Security agent if there was anything she could do to fix it.

“She said she was going to input some stuff and that she hoped that would take care of it,” he said.

And by the next morning, sure enough, the issue had been fixed.

“I just got a simple email on my phone,” McCaffrey said. “It said that my normal payment was going to resume in April.”

The email didn’t mention anything about the March payment he never received.

He took it upon himself to check his bank account, where he saw his March check had since been deposited.

“Well, that’s fine and dandy,” McAffrey said. “I enjoyed that, but they gave me no explanation.”

For him to get an explanation, he had to become his own detective of sorts.

He thought back to an experience he had two years ago when he first went to a Social Security office to apply for benefits.

“The first person I talked to at the Social Security Administration told me that I was not an American citizen,” McCaffrey said.

McCaffrey was born on a U.S. Army base in Germany, where his father was stationed for active duty.

He has an American birth certificate — officially stamped and sealed by the federal government.

“I was on American soil,” he said. “I’m American. She told me I was going to need to hire a lawyer, get a naturalization before I could even apply for Social Security.”

But when he returned another day with his birth certificate and passport, a different employee told him there was no issue.

“Got a different person, presented my things to him, and he says, ‘I don’t need these. You’re fine. I don’t know what. She’s just misinformed.’ And I’ve never had a problem with anything until [Tuesday],” McCaffrey said.

Then he remembered something he had recently seen on TV.

Elon Musk, the billionaire in charge of DOGE, spoke about Social Security during an interview on Fox Business Network.

In the interview, Musk suggested, without citing evidence, that non-citizens in large numbers are receiving Social Security benefits, and called for them to be purged from the system.

“[Federal entitlements] is also a mechanism by which Democrats attract and retain illegal immigrants, by essentially paying them,” Musk said during the March 10 interview on Fox Business. “If we turn off this gigantic money magnet for illegal immigrants, then they will leave.”

That made McAffrey wonder about his own situation.

“I think they went into Social Security and suspended all foreign addresses, whether you reside at home, born on them,” he said.

KFOR reached out to the Social Security Administration for an explanation, but officials declined to comment, citing confidentiality rules, but the news station put them in touch with McCaffrey.

He says a representative with the Social Security Administration called him on Wednesday, but still offered no explanation for why his benefits were terminated.

“It makes me wonder how many other people are going to get — or have gotten — that same Medicare letter,” McCaffrey said.

He worries about people who may not have the time and resources he had to get to the bottom of what happened and get his benefits back.

“I’ve been a diligent Boy Scout type, I prepared,” he said. “But, no, I shouldn’t have to.”

McAffrey, 66, says there was one thing he most looked forward about retirement.

“More time with the grandkids,” McAffrey told Nexstar’s KFOR.

He said he made sure to save up enough retirement money to—quite frankly—spoil his three grandkids.

“I went out and bought [my granddaughter] a new jacket,” McCaffrey said. “She’s thrilled. And then her sister says, ‘well, you know, she got a new jacket. Where’s mine?’ I said, ‘I’ll get you one.’”

He also looked forward to being able to travel more with his wife, who is nearing retirement herself.

But he thought all those dreams would have to come to a halt, after he opened his mail on Tuesday.

“I’d hate to have to turn around and say, ‘Well, I have to worry about my next check,’” he said.

He also worries about people who may not share the same savings or the same financial cushion that he had to fall back on. “And you interrupt that for seven days, two weeks or even longer, and they’re in bad trouble,” he said. “They could be out of the house. They could be out of food. I don’t know.”

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned of a growing retirement crisis, emphasizing that only employees at top companies benefit from adequate retirement planning while many Americans feel unprepared. He urges corporate leaders and politicians to rethink the system, acknowledging younger generations’ economic anxiety and suggesting older generations should work longer to restore trust and financial security.

While short-term economic uncertainty is fairly high on the list of priorities for CEOs at the moment, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink also wants to keep the topic of retirement front and centre.