Slowdown a ‘red herring’

Americans continue to sour on the US economic outlook as uncertainty around President Trump’s policies and higher prices weigh on consumer sentiment.

The latest consumer confidence index reading from the Conference Board was 92.9 in March, below the 100.1 seen in February and the lowest level in more than four years. The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked down to 65.2 from 72.9 and remained below the threshold of 80 — which typically signals recession ahead — for the second straight month.

This marked a 12-year low for the expectations index, which was driven in part by consumers’ expectations of their financial situation hitting its lowest level in more than two years.

“One of the most significant developments that we have seen was a decline in financial situation expectations from consumers,” Yelena Shulyatyeva, Conference Board senior US economist, told Yahoo Finance. “So that seems to suggest that all this uncertainty around economic outlook is really starting to weigh on consumers’ assessment of how they will fare going forward.”

The Conference Board noted in the release that of the five components that contribute to consumer confidence, only the respondents’ assessment of current labor market conditions moved higher in March. Future expectations were particularly dour, with consumers’ inflation expectations rising to 6.2% in March, up from 5.8% in February. For the first time since 2023, consumers turned negative on the stock market outlook, with just 37.4% of respondents expecting stocks to rise over the next year.

Meanwhile, those expecting a lower income in the next 12 months rose to 15.5% from 12.8% in February, marking the highest level of respondents expecting a lower income in the next year since November 2022.

“This data suggests that consumers lack confidence in their job security such that they can ask for higher wages,” Jefferies US economist Tom Simons wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. “The direction of travel in this indicator is concerning, but the levels aren’t quite at thresholds that we expect would trigger big shifts in spending behavior.”

Tuesday’s reading is one of several that have shown weakening expectations for the economy among consumers. The growing market fear is that consumers feeling worse about the economic outlook could prompt more cautious spending.

But Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and economists question whether readings in the “soft” survey data like the consumer confidence index will translate to a deterioration in the “hard” economic data like real consumer spending.

“The relationship between survey data and actual economic activity hasn’t been very tight,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference on March 19. “There have been plenty of times where people are saying very downbeat things about the economy and then going out and buying a new car. But we don’t know that that will be the case here. We will be watching very carefully for signs of weakness in the real data.”

For now, economists have largely argued that while the overall growth outlook for the US economy may now be weaker than initially thought coming into the year, there isn’t a clear sign of a significant slowdown.

In a research note to clients on Sunday, Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist wrote that “all the crises about recession” are “probably” overdone. He pointed to January’s decline in retail sales spooking investors, only to then be reversed by a gain in February.

Google has the pedal to the metal on its AI development. Just a few months after the debut of Gemini 2.0, the tech giant has unveiled another upgrade in Gemini 2.5. As with any new AI launch, Google is touting a strong performance on LMArena for Gemini 2.5, particularly its capabilities in coding, mathematics and science. The first model in this series is Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental. Google said this is a thinking model that’s intended to provide responses grounded in more reasoning, analysis and context than the answers offered by classification- and prediction-driven models. It’s a different approach than Google took with the Gemini 2.0 series, which started off with the more efficient and less expensive Flash version. “With Gemini 2.5, we’ve achieved a new level of performance by combining a significantly enhanced base model with improved post-training,” the company said in a blog post attributed to Koray Kavukcuoglu, CTO of Google DeepMind. “Going forward, we’re building these thinking capabilities directly into all of our models, so they can handle more complex problems and support even more capable, context-aware agents.” Google had only just started rolling out Gemini 2.0 to its services, using it to power the newly added AI Mode in search and Deep Research for handling more complex queries. With today’s launch, expect to hear more updates from the company about getting this latest version. Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental is available now in Google AI Studio, and Gemini Advanced members can use it directly in the Gemini app.

Apple officially set the date for WWDC 2025 today, which is where it will announce iOS 19 and its other new software platforms. According to rumors, iOS 19 is set to be one of the biggest software revamps in Apple’s history. Now, a new video from Jon Prosser has more tidbits on what to expect from the all-new iOS 19 design. Mark Gurman, meanwhile, says Apple has even more planned for iOS 19 and Prosser’s renders are missing key details … Prosser previously shared mockups of the revamped Camera and Messages apps coming with iOS 19. According to Prosser, these mockups (and the ones in today’s video) were created based on actual footage he saw of iOS 19 in action. Prosser worked with 3D artist Asher Dipprey to make these mockups. Today’s video from Prosser outlines a few details on what to expect from iOS 19’s new design:

• A “glassy, visionOS-themed” design that spans apps, buttons, the keyboard, and more.
• The new look will feature a “more rounded aesthetic and glossy, almost glassy styling,” where edges of interface elements “sort of pop up from the screen.”
• The keyboard in particular “almost looks like it’s floating” thanks to this new design.
• Many similarities to the design details we’ve seen in the Apple Sports and Apple Invites apps.

One thing Prosser specifically calls out at the end of the video is that the version of iOS 19 that he saw doesn’t use circular app icons on the Home Screen. He notes that “there’s always a chance” that could change and rounded Home Screen icons could happen. In a post on social media, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman says that these images “aren’t representative of what we’ll see at WWDC” and are “based on either very old builds or vague descriptions, missing key features.” Gurman says we should “expect more from Apple in June” than what these leaks show. As of right now, I don’t think what we’ve seen lives up to the hype that iOS 19 will be Apple’s biggest visual revamp since iOS 7. It’s good to know that Gurman says there’s more to the story.

President Donald Trump on Monday said he will soon announce tariffs targeting automobiles, pharmaceuticals and other industries, signaling his plans to pile more sweeping duties on top of his forthcoming “reciprocal tariffs.”

“We’ll be announcing cars very shortly,” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting. “We already announced steel, as you know, and aluminum.”

“We’ll be announcing pharmaceuticals at some point,” he said, “because we have to have pharmaceuticals.”

“So we’ll be announcing some of these things in the very near future, not the long future, the very near future,” Trump said.

Trump at another White House event later Monday added the lumber and semiconductor industries to his list, saying tariffs on those two sectors would come “down the road.”

Yet even as he piled on new sectors for potential tariffs, Trump said at the same event that he “may give a lot of countries breaks” on the reciprocal tariffs, which are set to take effect April 2.

When pressed for clarification on whether sectoral tariffs will also start that day, Trump initially said, “Yeah, it’s going to be everything.”

Then he said, “but not all tariffs are included that day.”

He also hinted that tariffs on autos may be announced before the reciprocal tariffs kick off.

“We’ll be announcing that fairly soon over the next few days, probably, and then April 2 comes, that’ll be reciprocal tariffs,” he said.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that the White House was likely to exclude industry-specific tariffs from the April 2 batch, despite Trump’s suggestion a week earlier that both types of tariffs would start the same day.

The president’s latest comments came hours after he vowed to slap 25% tariffs on all countries that buy oil and gas from Venezuela.

“We’ve been ripped off by every country in the world,” Trump said in the Cabinet meeting.

“We did something with Venezuela, which is long in the making,” he said. “And we’ll be announcing cars very shortly.”

A White House official told CNBC earlier Monday that the tariffs targeting specific sectors “may happen or may not.”

“No final decision’s been made as far as sectoral being tacked onto reciprocal,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Major stock indexes shot up Monday following the reports that Trump may be softening his tariff plans.

The official did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for additional comment following Trump’s remarks in the Cabinet meeting.

It is possible to obtain a new Social Security retirement check if you reside in the United States, but it is also true that in order to start receiving one of these benefits, you must meet certain requirements.

If you do not meet the minimum requirements, you will not be able to receive this monthly check, so you must take these obligations into account.

There’s no doubt that receiving a retirement payment is a financial relief for US citizens, as it provides them with a fixed monthly income to help pay their bills.

However, the Social Security Administration (SSA) has certain requirements for the monthly payment, as well as for any additional checks, according to tododisca.com.

When determining whether we are entitled to receive a retirement payment, we must take several elements into account. First of all, we must bear in mind that applying for an old-age retirement payment is not the same as applying for a disability payment.

In this case, we are referring to retirement benefits, as SSDI payments follow different rules.

What are the minimum requirements to obtain a pension in April 2025?

To apply for the Social Security retirement monthly payment in April 2025, we must bear in mind that two requirements must be met:

• Have worked for a minimum of 10 years.
• Being 62 years old.

If you do not yet meet this minimum age, you cannot apply for this retirement benefit, but you can apply for other benefits, such as the disability check, the spouse’s check or any other type of retirement benefit.

Even so, the performance for these characteristics is usually very low, so it is not advisable to meet the minimum requirements and demand a little more.

To obtain a salary higher than the minimum retirement salary, we must take into account several aspects.

The first is the retirement age; the second is the salary during the years worked, and the third aspect is the years worked.

In order to maximize all monthly retirement payments, what we should do is follow this structure:

• Wait until age 70 before applying for retirement.
• Work a minimum of 35 years.
• Earn the highest possible salary during working life.

While it is true that not all citizens can earn a higher salary before applying for Social Security, it is also true that we can always do something, such as changing sectors, asking for a raise or something similar.

It is not easy to achieve, but it is possible in many cases.

Markets have not yet factored in the impact of mass cuts in government spending, ‘The Big Short’ investor Danny Moses said. He told Fortune the Department of Government Efficiency’s cuts have jeopardized private contractors, small businesses, and the labor market. “It’s not as simple as just, ‘We think there’s fraud, let’s cut waste, let’s cut expenses,’” he said. Investor Danny Moses, best known for his oracular bet against mortgage-backed debt before the 2008 stock market crash, is warning of another economic red flag. The founder of Moses Ventures made famous by the book-turned-movie “The Big Short” cautioned the market has not yet accounted for the negative economic impact of the mass cuts to government jobs carried out by the Elon Musk-championed Department of Government Efficiency. “I think we are underestimating the impact to the economy of the cuts we’re making at the federal government, and what that might mean [for] the knock-on effects into the economy,” Moses said in a CNBC “Power Lunch” interview on Thursday. “We’re hurting the revenue side of the equation.” “I think we are being overly optimistic [as to] how this is going to play out,” he added. President Donald Trump’s administration has fired more than 24,000 federal workers, according to court documents, many of whom expect difficulty finding private sector jobs due to the specificity of their expertise. An additional 75,000 employees took a deferred resignation opportunity, which allowed them to receive pay and benefits through September. DOGE’s Wall of Receipts claims to have eliminated $115 billion in government spending—though the veracity of its alleged savings are under fire from experts. The administration’s whipsaw on tariffs has sown further uncertainty in the markets, leading companies to reassess their plans. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has left interest rates untouched while the policy plays out.

An ‘unvirtuous cycle’

Moses argued investors are already beginning to see disruptions in consumer confidence—which last month saw its steepest drop in four years—and will continue to hear similar trends in upcoming earnings calls. These slowdowns have yet to be priced into the market, he said. “It’s not as simple as just, ‘We think there’s fraud, let’s cut waste, let’s cut expenses,’” Moses told Fortune. “And it’s not just about the federal workers, and it’s not just about the expenses out of those programs. It’s about the contracts with the private sector.” The tell-tale signs of the weakening economy will be seen in small businesses and “private contractors that are doing legitimate work services that are now being forced to make decisions on their business,” Moses said. The government spent about $759 billion on contracts in fiscal 2023, an increase of about $33 billion from the year before, with about $171.5 billion going to small businesses, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office. Musk’s own companies receive at least $20 billion in government contracts. DOGE’s mass cuts have already begun to jeopardize major contracts. Accenture chief executive Julie Spellman Sweet told investors Thursday its Federal Services business, representing 8% of global revenue, lost U.S. government contracts as part of DOGE’s review. The consultancy’s share price tumbled 7.3% following the announcement. The elimination of both federal jobs and contracts creates what Moses called an “unvirtuous cycle.” As more fired federal workers look for private sector jobs, they may find fewer opportunities because of shrinking revenue streams in government contracts.

Federal workers’ luck in the job market

Indeed, beyond the purgatory of government contracts, the economy will also have to contend with tens of thousands of federal workers reentering the labor market. Many of those former government employees will encounter an environment that is stable, but has wildly different prospects based on the skillsets of those newly unemployed, Cory Stahle, an economist for Indeed’s Hiring Lab, told Fortune. “Can the labor market absorb these workers?” Stahle said. “We’re not quite sure if it can.” Healthcare jobs are currently abundant—good news for about 16% of the federal workforce in health-related fields, according to the Pew Research Center—but many other white-collar jobs, particularly in tech and data science, are scarce. Because many fired federal employees are educated, they may be looking for traditional knowledge worker jobs that don’t exist at the moment, Stahle said. One of the reasons the markets may not have yet factored in the impact of the firings is the lag in government data. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported about 10,000 fewer federal government jobs in February, the survey period for the report likely ended before many of the firings were carried out. “Employers seem to be really frozen, by the uncertainty around what’s going to happen around tariffs, what’s going to happen with labor supply, immigration, then obviously, what’s going to happen with these federal workers,” Stahle said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty that’s playing in right now that we’re not fully able to quantify.” Should a substantive number of federal workers fail to find new jobs, spending will likely slow, a not-insignificant hit to a U.S. economy made up nearly 70% of consumer spending, Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, wrote in a February blog post. “The economy is indisputably made up of people and their wallets,” she said. “Disrupt our spending, and growth will sputter, no matter how worthy you think the cause of the disruption is.”

1. Know the ins and outs of your finances

2. Have systems in place for making money decisions

3. Have a plan before you need one

4. Live by the 80/20 principle

5. Focus on value over cost

Apple has been hit with a lawsuit for delaying, and thereby falsely advertising, Apple Intelligence features, Axios reports. According to the lawsuit filed in the US District Court in San Jose on Wednesday, Apple advertised Apple Intelligence features for the iPhone 16 lineup despite knowing “it could not actually provide the capabilities that it was advertising.” Through its pre-release marketing campaigns, Apple “drove unprecedented excitement” and set a reasonable consumer expectation that these AI-powered features would be available upon the iPhone 16’s release in September, the lawsuit adds. The case comes just weeks after the company admitted it would need more time to roll out parts of Apple Intelligence. “It’s going to take us longer than we thought to deliver on these features and we anticipate rolling them out in the coming year,” Apple told Daring Fireball earlier this month. The delayed features include a more personalized Siri capable of taking actions across apps and responding to queries based on a user’s on-device information. For example, you could say, ‘Play that podcast that Jamie recommended,’ and Siri will locate and play the episode, without you having to remember whether it was mentioned in a text or an email, Apple explained in June. These Siri features were rumored to have been pushed to 2026 first and then to 2027. After admitting to the delay earlier this month, Apple added a disclaimer on its website last week and appointed a new team lead for Apple Intelligence this week. According to the plaintiffs, Apple has, through its actions, “deceived millions of consumers into purchasing new phones they did not need based on features that do not exist, in violation of multiple false advertising and consumer protection laws.” They also accuse Apple of gaining an “unfair advantage over competitors in the market who do not tout non-existent AI features, or who actually deliver them as promised.” The plaintiffs have requested that the case be considered a class action. Among other reliefs, they have also sought monetary compensation for all those who purchased Apple Intelligence-equipped phones.

DoorDash, the popular gig economy food delivery service, has announced that it will be partnering with Klarna, the financing service, to offer consumers the option to buy delivery and then pay for it later. That’s right, you can now finance a pizza.

Buying now and paying later has long been a feature of American consumer life when it comes to pricey goods like cars or homes, and few Americans could ever afford to pay for those goods entirely in cash. But while it makes for funny memes to imagine being hit up by a debt collector for a Chipotle payment, the truth is that the American economy is increasingly resembling a dystopian film directed by Bong Joon Ho, the famed Korean filmmaker behind the Oscar-winning Parasite and the new Mickey 17.

Those movies showed us the lengths people would go to escape from debt, whether it was turning your family into conmen or signing up for a mission in outer space that guarantees you will live and die repeatedly until the end of your days.

For Americans, debt is now everywhere, even on the holidays. One survey released in November 2024 found that nearly half of Americans were still paying off debt from the previous year’s holiday spending. “Six in 10 people with credit card debt have had it for at least a year. That’s up 10 percentage points from three years ago,” Bankrate analyst Tedd Rossman explained at the time.

It would be easy to blame this all on people’s lack of individual responsibility. Indeed, financial literacy isn’t a strong suit for a lot of Americans. But as debt invades every aspect of our lives, is it really that Americans have just suddenly become much more irresponsible and unable to live within their means?

There’s an old Chinese proverb that says that our ancestors plant the trees so that we can sit in the shade. The seeds of the debt economy have been laid everywhere, from colleges and universities portraying their outrageous tuition and fees as an “investment” Americans should be willing to go deeply into debt for to the ubiquitous credit card commercials they’re greeted with any time you sit down to watch television.

Our society is telling us that living outside your means is no problem, and we’re listening. But over time we may also see a counterculture start to take root. Financial gurus like Dave Ramsey are building a fanbase based on preaching a philosophy of keeping people out of debt. One issue some Democrats and Republicans have found common ground on is capping credit card interest rates (although any such bill faces long odds in Congress). The absurdity of the DoorDash-Klarna venture is self-evident to many Americans.

Americans are increasingly living in a society that not only expects them to go deep into debt but encourages them to be trapped in their own personal debtor’s jail. A prison break still might be possible, but the recent DoorDash-Klarna agreement is a truly dystopian move.