IPOs in Limbo as Shutdown Threatens Billions of Dollars of Deals


Stock traders are making a clear prediction about prediction markets: They’re fast becoming the next big thing for online gambling.
That speculation raced across Wall Street this week after Robinhood Markets Inc. — which played a pivotal role in unleashing the pandemic’s day-trading frenzy — and the exchange Kalshi reported that prediction markets wagers are surging at a rapid pace. Robinhood, which has a partnership with Kalshi to offer wagers on everything from football games to political races and other everyday events, saw more than 2 billion prediction contracts trade in the third quarter alone.
Traders rushed to dump shares of online betting operators, with DraftKings Inc. tumbling over 16%, its biggest weekly drop since late 2022, and rival Flutter Entertainment PLC, which operates FanDuel, sliding more than 8%. Wall Street analysts were equally swift, slashing price targets and in one case double-downgrading DraftKings’ shares to a sell-equivalent rating.
“These companies need to come out with a strategy for investors — whether it’s launching prediction markets or stepping up marketing,” said Jordan Bender, an equity research analyst at Citizens, who said he has been deluged by inquiries from clients. “Until that happens, the prediction markets present a risk.”
(Reuters) -Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, hit a record high on Sunday and was up nearly 2.7% at $125,245.57 at 0512 GMT.
Bitcoin’s previous record was $124,480 in mid-August, buoyed by friendlier regulations from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and strong demand from institutional investors.
The cryptocurrency had risen on Friday for an eighth straight session, bolstered by recent gains in U.S. equities and inflows into bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
In contrast, the U.S. dollar retreated on Friday, posting multi-week losses against major currencies, as uncertainty surrounding a U.S. government shutdown clouded the outlook and delayed key data releases, such as payrolls, critical for gauging the economy’s direction.
It’s not just gold (GC=F) notching a strong quarter as a potential government shutdown looms.
Silver futures (SI=F) are up 27% over the past three months, versus gold’s more than 15% rise, and roughly 58% year to date compared with the yellow metal’s 45%.
On Tuesday, gold futures held near record highs above $3,875 an ounce while silver futures traded around $46. The metal was within striking distance of its closing high of $48.70 — just north of $150 in today’s dollars — set in January 1980. That was during a famed silver squeeze, when the infamous Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.
“Silver is in a fundamental deficit with demand outstripping supply,” Sprott Asset Management senior portfolio manager Shree Kargutkar told Yahoo Finance. “This development is being picked up by investors who are adding to their holdings through ETFs (exchange-traded funds) as well as physical silver.”
Sprott remains bullish on the metal, highlighting its industrial demand across sectors, from electronics to medical applications.
Silver’s hockey stick rally comes as gold has dominated the spotlight this year, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and robust foreign central bank demand, with holdings recently surpassing US Treasurys for the first time since 1996.
On Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts pointed to their bullishness on gold amid a “goldilocks regime” — not too hot, not too cold, in other words — for the broader market.
The analysts expect gold to reach $4,000 by mid-2026, though increased trades into the space “might create near-term more bumpiness.
Earlier this month, analysts at the firm said gold was their “highest-conviction long recommendation,” outlining an upside scenario of $5,000 by the end of next year amid rising concerns over Federal Reserve independence, as President Trump aims to place dovish governors at the central bank.
Along with gold and silver, precious metals palladium (PA=F) and platinum (PL=F) have rallied 44% and 79%, respectively, in 2025 amid a weaker greenback trend.
The US dollar index is down about 10% year to date, making commodities priced in dollars cheaper for buyers using other currencies
Barclays head of global asset allocation Nikola Vasiljevic recently noted that precious metals have historically been standout winners during periods of dollar weakness
“Data shows that this asset class has delivered real annualized returns of around 15% on average, and this is because they act as a direct hedge, being a traditional store of value,” Vasiljevic said.
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. government shutdown tops investors’ agenda next week as markets head into the seasonally strong fourth quarter, with equities near record highs bracing for an earnings-season test later this month.
A deep partisan rift in Washington led to a federal government shutdown that risks delaying crucial economic data and could potentially muddy the Federal Reserve’s policy-easing outlook.
Few on Wall Street expect the Washington impasse to derail a rally that has lifted the S&P 500 by 14% to repeated record highs, but with little in the way of major data or earnings, the Capitol Hill drama is set to dominate investor focus.
“The shutdown and the potential reopening … that’s going to get almost all investor attention,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide.
Investors’ main worry is that the shutdown will suspend the flow of timely economic data.
Should the data drought last several weeks, it could cause confusion about the Fed’s monetary policy path, as the central bank will be without government data that helps guide its decisions. It also poses a possible drag on economic growth the longer it extends.
But for now, there is little reason to panic, investors said.
Despite some softness in labor data, the U.S. economy has borne the onslaught of trade and tariff headlines well and corporate earnings have supported stocks’ march higher.
Analysts as of Thursday expected earnings from S&P 500 companies to increase 8.8% in the third quarter from a year ago, up from forecasts of 8.0% growth at the start of July, according to LSEG data.
“In my opinion, lack of data actually puts more burden of proof on bears than it does on bulls,” Hackett said.
Investors will get a taste of the upcoming earnings season, with Levi Strauss and Delta Air Lines set to report results on Thursday.
“The most likely scenario is the market’s just kind of calm … moving sideways during the shutdown,” Hackett said.
KEY Advisors Wealth Management CEO Eddie Ghabour, who sees the shutdown possibly stretching for two to four weeks, echoed the sentiment.
“If we’re right on the shutdown stretching out, if you get extra stimulus in the economy in the form of two more rate cuts, and then the government is back in business, you’re going to see a huge re-acceleration of growth in the economy and the equity markets,” Ghabour said.
Investors will get a read on what Fed policymakers were thinking when they cut rates in September when the minutes of that meeting are released on Wednesday.
For stock bulls, it helps that the just-started fourth quarter is historically the S&P 500’s strongest, with an average gain of about 2.9% and a high share of positive returns, according to LSEG data going back to 1928.
“Despite headline risks and the potential for short-term volatility, the weight of the evidence continues to support a constructive stance,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said in a note on Thursday.
“As always, we will continue to follow the weight of the evidence.”
Meanwhile, the market’s strong momentum has stock bears in hibernation. The S&P 500 logged its 30th record closing high of the year on Thursday.
“The shutdown is going to be the news, but I think the underlying backdrop is really three things, seasonality, which is positive, the tailwind of rate cuts to protect the labor market … and we have momentum in the markets,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group.
“We’ve been overweight equities and we are continuing to be that,” he said.
Global Infrastructure Partners is in advanced talks to acquire Macquarie-backed Aligned Data Centers, targeting a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom in what would be one of the year’s biggest deals, according to people familiar with the matter.
Aligned could be valued at about $40 billion in a transaction, said one of the people. An agreement could be announced within days, the people added, asking not to be identified because the information is private.
MGX, an AI investment company established by sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co., is also involved in the talks and would invest independently as part of a transaction, one of the people said. Mubadala has separately already invested in Aligned.
GIP, now part of BlackRock Inc., hasn’t reached a final agreement and some details might change or the talks could still end without a transaction, the people said.
A spokesperson for BlackRock declined to comment. Representatives for Aligned, Macquarie and Mubadala didn’t respond to requests for comment outside of regular business hours.
The envisioned acquisition marks the latest in a parade of eye-popping deals since ChatGPT emerged, as investors vie for exposure to the leaders of a technology with the potential to transform industries and economies. They’ve piled into infrastructure providers such as chip linchpins Nvidia Corp. and SK Hynix Inc., pushed up valuations of startups like OpenAI and Anthropic, and poured capital into all manner of gear suppliers to the AI boom.
The surge in valuations has worried some market observers who argue that, while data center spending and construction is accelerating, AI services have yet to go mainstream and earn the revenues needed to justify the near-unprecedented rally.
“If the technology doesn’t catch up and doesn’t deliver as per the high expectations that the market’s pricing in, then we’re in for a bubble,” GIC Pte group CIO Bryan Yeo told the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore on Friday.
In recent years, digital infrastructure in particular has become a popular target for global investors looking for stable returns and growth. It’s also one of the busiest assets for dealmaking, despite concerns that the new capacity may eventually outstrip demand.
At $40 billion, GIP’s deal for Aligned would rank among the world’s five biggest transactions this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
GIP already owns Dallas-based data center company CyrusOne with KKR & Co. The two firms took CyrusOne private in a 2021 deal valuing the company at about $15 billion.
Aligned, operating throughout the US and South America and based in Plano, Texas, has 50 campuses and 78 data centers under management and future development, according to its website. In January, it landed more than $12 billion in equity and debt commitments from investors including funds managed by Macquarie Asset Management.
Last month, Aligned was one of the companies represented at a meeting with Trump administration officials on speeding the development of AI and the infrastructure it relies on.
The data center construction boom is galvanizing governments around the world. In the US, the White House has proposed streamlining environmental reviews for the construction of new facilities as investment pours into the industry.
Recent deals include Meta Platforms Inc. raising $29 billion in a financing package for a data center in Louisiana. Oracle Corp. raised $18 billion in bonds as it builds infrastructure for OpenAI.
MGX has been looking at raising up to $25 billion for its AI infrastructure effort, Bloomberg News has reported. Mubadala also maintains a strategic partnership with BlackRock, according to the fund’s website.
TOKYO, Oct 2 (Reuters) – Tech shares rallied on Thursday, driving Asia stock indexes higher, while gold hovered near a record high and the dollar languished as a weak U.S. labour market report bolstered bets for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
The U.S. government shutdown made it a near certainty that crucial monthly payrolls data won’t be released on Friday, but overnight the private ADP employment report showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September, with the prior month also revised to a decline.
Even without the benefit of official labour data, the dismal ADP report had traders pricing in quarter-point Fed rate cuts at each of the two remaining policy meetings of the year as almost a done deal.
The promise of an easier policy environment helped lift Wall Street to fresh record highs on Wednesday, and the Philadelphia SE semiconductor index (.SOX), opens new tab climbed more than 2%.
Chip sector shares were prominent in leading Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab to gains of about 0.5%.
Taiwan’s tech-heavy bourse (.TWII), opens new tab jumped 1.5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI (.KS11), opens new tab shot up 2.8% after chip heavyweights Samsung and Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centres.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (.HSI), opens new tab added 0.5%.
The ADP report “suggests the U.S. economy is in almost dire need for further policy support,” and as a result, “the markets are discounting a much higher probability of rate cuts in October and December,” said Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com.
Meanwhile, “after some initial jitters, the markets shrugged off the U.S. government shutdown, at least for now,” he added.
“Historically, the impact of shutdowns has been trivial,” although “the delay of critical economic data could increase uncertainty about the path forward for U.S. monetary policy – and therefore lift volatility,” Rodda said.
The government shut down much of its operations on Wednesday as deep partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal, setting off what could be a long, gruelling standoff.
The combination of Fed easing bets and some shutdown angst pushed gold to a fresh all-time high of $3,895.09 overnight, while also supporting U.S. Treasuries, sending yields sharply lower.
The two-year Treasury yield sank to a two-week low of 3.531% on Thursday in Tokyo trading hours.
Gold paused for breath, last changing hands at around $3,865.
The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, languished near the one-week low of 97.459 reached overnight. It last stood at 97.672, slightly down from Wednesday’s closing level.
The dollar was little changed at 147.01 yen , following a 1.8% three-day tumble.
The euro rose slightly to $1.1738, and sterling also ticked up to $1.34835.
Oil prices edged higher on prospects of tighter sanctions on Russian crude, looking to snap a three-day losing streak to 16-week lows.
Brent crude futures gained 0.2% to $65.50 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $61.92 a barrel.