SALT LAKE CITY — He has seen it before. Which is why, this time, Shane Stewart isn’t too worried about if the stock market will rebound. “It always does. It always has,” he said. “And I am 99.9% sure it always will.” Stewart is a longtime financial planner with Deseret Mutual Benefits Administrators and knows a lot of people are a little nervous after stocks dropped roughly 1,300 points in the past two days. However, he has advice for those wondering if they should take their money out of the market. “Really, it is a boring answer, I know, but it is always stay the course,” he said. “If you are properly diversified for a longer-term investment, then you are good.” Stewart said what is happening with the stock market now is uncertainty. Investors don’t like uncertainty, especially when the current administration is talking about tariffs with our closest trading partners. “This particular administration is really looking at a hard course correction from the prior administration. Sometimes, administrations will come in and do things gradually. This administration really hit the ground running on their changes, and so, it gives uncertainty. It gives everyone uncertainty,” said Stewart. “We are not sure where they are headed, and so the markets will react to that uncertainty. That’s what’s really happening right now is an administration with a very aggressive agenda, and whether you agree with that agenda or not, it doesn’t matter, it’s just that it’s aggressive.” Even though a country can impose a tariff on another country, the increased costs for goods get passed on to the consumer. Right now, no one knows exactly what tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China will do to American consumers. “That is probably one of the most uncertain things you can do to an economy because you’re not sure how the economy will react to the tariffs,” said Stewart. “The market doesn’t get into politics too much other than to see where the economy is heading, and that is what they are looking to find. I believe like every time that this happens, that once the market gets a little bit of certainty on where we are headed, that will help course correct.” However, Stewart feels while the market is down, it is a great time to invest more. In a way, he said, stocks right now are on sale. “Eventually those times will go back up and your money that you put in will go with it,” said Stewart. His best advice for the time being is to keep your money in the market and to look at the big picture when looking at your 401k savings. “I like to tell people, when in doubt, zoom out,” said Stewart. “It might look bad the past couple of days, but if you zoom out and look at the past year or two, most likely you will see that things look better.”

Stocks rose on Wednesday, staging a recovery rally after back-to-back losses as investors hoped that an exemption for automakers to President Donald Trump’s controversial tariffs opened the floodgates for more concessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 485.60 points, or 1.14%, to finish at 43,006.59, regaining ground after plunging more than 1,300 points over the last two sessions. The S&P 500 added 1.12% to 5,842.63, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.46% to 18,552.73. Stocks took a leg up after the White House said it granted a one-month delay for tariffs on automakers whose cars comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Stellantis surged more than 9%, while Ford and General Motors added more than 5% and 7%, respectively. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said Trump was open to providing additional exemptions on the taxes. Traders see that “the administration is going to respond to market pressure,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, adding that the White House will “scramble” to adjust policy as needed. “This is further confirmation for investors who feel that way.” A sharp rally ensued in afternoon trading following the announcement. About three out of four S&P 500 members finished higher, while the small cap-focused Russell 2000 advanced about 1%. Tech stocks such as Microsoft and Tesla also popped in the session, marking a turn after the sector led the market’s recent drawdown. Still, uncertainty lingered as Trump said Canada’s fentanyl efforts were “not good enough” in a call with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The three indexes swung between positive and negative territory Wednesday before the announcement of delays for automakers, underscoring the heightened market volatility as investors tracked the status of tariff policy. Trump’s levies — and subsequent announcements of retaliatory plans from China, Mexico and Canada — have rocked markets this week, with stocks down in the prior two sessions. Even with Wednesday’s respite, the three major indexes are still all down more than 1% week to date. Stocks rose on Wednesday, staging a recovery rally after back-to-back losses as investors hoped that an exemption for automakers to President Donald Trump’s controversial tariffs opened the floodgates for more concessions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 485.60 points, or 1.14%, to finish at 43,006.59, regaining ground after plunging more than 1,300 points over the last two sessions. The S&P 500 added 1.12% to 5,842.63, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.46% to 18,552.73. Stocks took a leg up after the White House said it granted a one-month delay for tariffs on automakers whose cars comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Stellantis surged more than 9%, while Ford and General Motors added more than 5% and 7%, respectively. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt also said Trump was open to providing additional exemptions on the taxes. Traders see that “the administration is going to respond to market pressure,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird, adding that the White House will “scramble” to adjust policy as needed. “This is further confirmation for investors who feel that way.” A sharp rally ensued in afternoon trading following the announcement. About three out of four S&P 500 members finished higher, while the small cap-focused Russell 2000 advanced about 1%. Tech stocks such as Microsoft and Tesla also popped in the session, marking a turn after the sector led the market’s recent drawdown. Still, uncertainty lingered as Trump said Canada’s fentanyl efforts were “not good enough” in a call with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The three indexes swung between positive and negative territory Wednesday before the announcement of delays for automakers, underscoring the heightened market volatility as investors tracked the status of tariff policy. Trump’s levies — and subsequent announcements of retaliatory plans from China, Mexico and Canada — have rocked markets this week, with stocks down in the prior two sessions. Even with Wednesday’s respite, the three major indexes are still all down more than 1% week to date.

The Stoxx 600 index was 1.64% higher at 9:58 a.m. U.K. time, following the broad downturn in global equities on Tuesday on tariff concerns. The Stoxx autos index, which tumbled nearly 6% in the previous session, rebounded by 3.4%. Utilities and food and beverage were among the sectors in the red. German stocks were the top performers regionally, with Frankfurt’s DAX index up nearly 3%. Top gainers included construction firm Hochtief, up 17%, manufacturer Kion Group, up 15.4%, the country’s biggest lender Deutsche Bank, up 9.7%, and Siemens Energy, up 9.6%. Regional defense names also continued their recent rally, with the Stoxx Aerospace and Defense index rising 3%. On Tuesday, Germany’s conservative alliance and the Social Democratic Party — the two groups expected to form the next coalition government following last month’s election — agreed to try to reform the constitutional debt brake system in order to enable defense spending in excess of 1% of GDP. Friedrich Merz, widely billed as likely to become the next chancellor of Europe’s largest economy, said they would also seek to create a 500 billion euro ($529 billion) credit-financed special infrastructure fund over ten years. Alterations or exemptions to the debt brake system have been seen as crucial as a way to allow fiscal loosening to boost Germany’s struggling economy and increase military spending in-step with other European countries. The step remains politically contentious. The yield on German 10-year bonds, seen as the euro zone benchmark, was more than 20 basis points higher at 2.681% following the news. The 2-year yield jumped more than 15%. The euro extended its late Tuesday gains by another 0.84% against the U.S. dollar, reaching its highest level for four months. “At this stage, it looks as if Germany will run budget deficits comfortably over 3% of GDP over the next couple of years rather than keeping the deficit at around 2.5% as we had previously assumed,” Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a Tuesday note. He said the German announcement showed Merz was “prepared to act decisively” on the economy, but that the additional borrowing that will be needed to finance the extra spending would put upward pressure on Bund yields. Elsewhere, the introduction of fresh U.S. tariffs has been rattling global market sentiment amid concerns they will reignite inflation and escalate a global trade war. Wall Street has seen two days of declines as 25% duties on Canada and Mexico went into effect on Tuesday, as well as an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. All three countries have announced retaliatory measures. U.S. stock futures rose overnight, however, after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump “probably” will announce tariff compromise deals with Canada and Mexico on Wednesday.

A growth scare in the economy has accompanied worries over a resurgence in inflation, in turn potentially rekindling an ugly condition that the U.S. has not seen in 50 years. Fears over “stagflation” have come as President Donald Trump seems determined to slap tariffs on virtually anything that comes into the country at the same time that multiple indicators are pointing to a pullback in activity. That dual threat of higher prices and slower growth is causing angst among consumers, business leaders and policymakers, not to mention investors who have been dumping stocks and scooping up bonds lately. “Directionally, it is stagflation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s higher inflation and weaker economic growth that is the result of policy — tariff policy and immigration policy.” The phenomenon, not seen since the dark days of hyperinflation and sagging growth in the 1970s and early ’80s, has primarily manifested itself lately in “soft” data such as sentiment surveys and supply manager indexes. At least among consumers, long-run inflation expectations are at their highest level in almost 30 years while general sentiment is seeing multi-year lows. Consumer spending fell in January by its most in nearly four years, even though income rose sharply, according to a Commerce Department report Friday. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Manufacturing’s survey of purchase managers showed that factory activity barely expanded in February while new orders fell by the most in nearly five years and prices jumped by the highest monthly margin in more than a year. Following the ISM report, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow gauge of rolling economic data downgraded its projection for first quarter economic growth to an annualized decrease of 2.8%. If that holds up, it would be the first negative growth number since the first quarter of 2022 and the worst plunge since the Covid shutdown in early 2020. “Inflation expectations are up. People are nervous and uncertain about growth,” Zandi said. “Directionally, we’re moving toward stagflation, but we’re not going to get anywhere close to the stagflation we had in the ’70s and the ’80s because the Fed won’t allow it.” Indeed, markets are pricing in a greater chance the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June and could lop three-quarters of a percentage point off its key borrowing rate this year as a way to head off any economic slowdown. But Zandi thinks the Fed reaction might do just the opposite — raise rates to shut down inflation, in the vein of former Chair Paul Volcker, who aggressively hiked in the early ’80s and dragged the economy into recession. “If it looks like true stagflation with slow growth, they will sacrifice the economy,” he said.

Sell-off in stocks

The converging factors are causing waves on Wall Street, where stocks have been been in sell-off mode this month, erasing the gains that were made after Trump won election in November. Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell again Tuesday and is off about 4.5% through the early days of March, the selling hasn’t felt especially rushed and the CBOE Volatility Index, a gauge of market fear, was only around 23 Tuesday afternoon, not much above its long-term average. Markets were well off their session lows in afternoon trading. “This certainly isn’t the time to hit the panic button,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. “At this point, I’m still in the camp that this is a healthy resetting of expectations.” However, it’s not just stocks that are showing signs of fear. Treasury yields have been tumbling in recent days after surging since September. The benchmark 10-year note yield has fallen to about 4.2%, off about half a percentage point from its January peak and below the 3-month note, a reliable recession indicator going back to World War II called an inverted yield curve. Yields move opposite to price, so falling yields indicate greater investor appetite for fixed income securities. Hackett said he fears a “vicious circle” of activity created by the swooning sentiment indicators that could turn into a full-blown crisis. Economists and business executives see the tariffs hitting prices for food, vehicles, electricity and an assortment of other items. Stagflation “certainly is something to pay attention to now, more than it’s been in a while,” he said. “We have to watch. This is such a collapse in sentiment and such a change in the way people are viewing things and the level of emotion is so elevated right now that it will start impacting behavior.”

White House sees ‘the greatest America’

For their part, White House officials are maintaining that short-term pain will be dwarfed by the long-term benefits tariffs will bring. Trump has touted the duties as way to create a stronger manufacturing base in the U.S., which is primarily a service-based economy. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledged in a CNBC interview Tuesday that there “may well be short-term price movements. But in the long term, it’s going to be completely different.” Market-based inflation expectations are in line with that sentiment. One metric, which measures the spread between nominal 5-year Treasury yields against inflation, is at its lowest level in nearly two years. “This is going to be the greatest America. We’ll have a balanced budget. Interest rates will come smashing down, and I mean 100 basis points, 150 basis points lower,” Lutnick added. “This president is going to deliver all of those things and drive manufacturing here.” Likewise, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that “there’s going to be a transition period” and said the administration’s focus is on Main Street more than Wall Street. “Wall Street’s done great. Wall Street can continue to do fine, but we have a focus on small business and the consumer,” he said. ” We are going to rebalance the economy, we are going to bring manufacturing jobs home.” Important clues on where the economy is headed should come from Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. If the jobs count is good, it could reinforce the notion that the hard data has remained solid even as sentiment has shifted. But if the report shows that the labor market is softening while wages are holding higher, that could add to the stagflation chatter. “We have to be observant. There’s the potential that the stagflation term just by itself, by talking about it, can manifest some of it,” said Hackett, the Nationwide strategist. “I’m not in the we-are-in-a-period-of-stagnation camp, but that is the disaster scenario.”

March 3 (Reuters) – Defence stocks powered European shares to a record high on Monday, after expectations mounted of higher military spending in the region, and the prospect of a Ukraine peace proposal boosted sentiment. Germany’s blue-chip index (.GDAXI), opens new tab logged its biggest one-day jump since November 2022, and closed at a record high, alongside Britain’s benchmark index (.FTSE), opens new tab. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), opens new tab closed up 1.1%, at a record high, building on 10 straight weeks of gains. Leaders from major European economies agreed, over the weekend, to boost defence spending to show U.S. President Donald Trump that the continent could protect itself. Britain said there were several possible proposals for a Ukraine ceasefire after last week’s Oval Office rupture between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE), opens new tab surged 13.7% to a record high, while Italy’s Leonardo (LDOF.MI), opens new tab advanced 16%. Britain’s BAE Systems (BAES.L), opens new tab was up 14.5%. France’s Thales (TCFP.PA), opens new tab and Dassault Aviation (AM.PA), opens new tab were up 16% and 14%, respectively. The European aerospace and defence index (.SXPARO), opens new tab climbed 7.7% to a record high, while the industrial goods and services sector (.SXNP), opens new tab gained 2.5%. A Reuters report that said parties in talks to form Germany’s new government were considering setting up a defence fund also boosted sentiment towards the defence companies. “While hopes of a Ukraine peace plan continue to play some part in today’s positive market action, it is the expectation of rearmament across Europe that is the most important driver,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at trading platform IG. “However, the problem is, as with all these euphoric surges, that it may take some time for it to fully develop… With European defence, it’s a question of seeing how this translates into actual funding.” Germany’s 10-year Bund yield , the euro zone benchmark, rose to 2.49%, pressuring rate-sensitive real estate (.SX86P), opens new tab and utilities (.SX6P), opens new tab, which were the top sectors in the red. Meanwhile, data showed Euro zone inflation dipped less than expected last month, but its most closely watched element dropped, sealing the case for another ECB interest rate cut on Thursday and for further policy easing in the coming months. The focus, however, will be on the central bank’s stance on U.S. plans for “reciprocal” tariffs on the European Union, as Trump’s deadline for tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and a further 10% duty on China looms Bunzl (BNZL.L), opens new tab fell 8.8% after the business supplies distributor reported a fall in annual profit.

NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) – Kraken, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, said on Monday the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission agreed in principle to dismiss a civil lawsuit accusing it of operating illegally as an unregistered securities exchange. In a statement on its blog, Kraken called the dismissal a turning point for cryptocurrency that ended a “wasteful, politically motivated campaign” begun during the Biden administration, and which stifled innovation and investment. Kraken said the dismissal includes no admission of wrongdoing, no penalties, and no changes to its business. It also said the dismissal is with prejudice, meaning the SEC cannot bring the case again. “This case was never about protecting investors,” Kraken said. “It undermined a nascent industry that repeatedly urged clear rules of the road. “We appreciate the new leadership both at the White House and the Commission that led to this change,” Kraken added. The SEC declined to comment. Kraken had been sued in November 2023, as part of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s push to bring cryptocurrency under the regulator’s purview. But the SEC has pulled back on crypto oversight since U.S. President Donald Trump began his second White House term in January. Last week, the SEC ended a similar lawsuit against Coinbase (COIN.O), opens new tab, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, and said it may resolve its civil fraud case against Justin Sun, the Chinese entrepreneur and adviser to a Trump-backed crypto project. Trump, meanwhile, nominated Paul Atkins, a Washington lawyer seen as supportive of digital assets, to succeed Gensler as SEC chair. The SEC had accused Payward and Payward Ventures, which operate as Kraken, of having since 2018 made hundreds of millions of dollars arranging purchases and sales of 11 crypto assets while turning a “blind eye” to securities laws. Kraken was also accused of having deficient internal controls and record keeping. Like the vast majority of the cryptocurrency industry, Kraken argued that crypto assets, unlike stocks and bonds, did not qualify as investment contracts subject to SEC oversight. A federal judge in San Francisco denied Kraken’s bid to dismiss the case last August. Kraken is the world’s 10th-ranked cryptocurrency spot exchange based on traffic, liquidity, trading volumes, and confidence in the legitimacy of reported trading volumes, according to CoinMarketCap.

SYDNEY, March 3 (Reuters) – Asian share markets made guarded gains on Monday as investors waited anxiously to see if imminent tariffs would go ahead, while bitcoin surged on news it would be included in a new U.S. strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies. U.S. President Donald Trump on social media announced five digital assets he expected to include in a new reserve, including bitcoin , ether , XRP , solana and cardano . Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, shot up 10% on Sunday before paring some gains on Monday to $93,230, while ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, pulled back to $2,448 after climbing 13% a day earlier. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab was flat, while Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab rose 1.7%. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab added 0.1%, with a rise in the Caixin/S&P manufacturing PMI to 50.8 in February from 50.1 lending support. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.2%. They staged a late rally on Friday after a week of heavy losses. EUROSTOXX 50 futures firmed 0.7%, while DAX futures rose 0.8%. FTSE futures , meanwhile, gained 0.6%. Investors seemed encouraged that European leaders agreed to draw up a Ukraine peace plan to take to the United States, following President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s clash with Trump in the Oval Office. Worries about the health of the U.S. economy resurfaced after a string of soft data that had seen the closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker swing to an annualised -1.5%, from +2.3%, sparking talk of a possible recession. Those fears were fanned on Sunday when U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect on Tuesday, but that Trump would determine whether to stick with the planned 25% level. An extra 10% levy on Chinese imports is also due to come into effect this week, just as the country’s National People’s Congress opens its third annual session on Wednesday where stimulus measures and possible reprisals against the U.S. could be announced. “As with other Trump tariff announcements so far, it’s hard to know if this is a bluff or a genuine turn in policy,” said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli. “However, if it were to be realised it would create a significant new headwind to economic activity, as well as an upside support to consumer prices.”

PAYROLLS LOOM

All of this raises the stakes for the January U.S. payrolls report due on Friday, where a weak outcome would fuel market bets the Federal Reserve might have to cut interest rates three times this year. Fed fund futures now imply 69 basis points of easing by December, compared with 46 basis points a week ago. Yields on 10-year Treasuries extended their rally with a drop to 4.2290%, leaving them down 35 basis points in February, the largest monthly decline since late 2023. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook on Friday, just a few hours after the jobs report, and at least seven other officials will appear this week. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut its rates by 25 basis points to 2.50% on Thursday following a run of weak data, and a move under 2% is expected by year-end. In currency markets, the euro edged up 0.4% to $1.0414 on hopes for progress in a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal, after having dropped as low as $1.0360 on Friday. The dollar eased back to 1.4443 Canadian dollars , after rising 1.7% last week, and dipped to 20.4586 Mexican pesos . It eased a touch on the Japanese yen to 150.38 yen , while the dollar index was down slightly at 107.24. Gold prices firmed 0.2% to $2,864 an ounce , having dropped around 3% last week. Oil bounced a little, having slid last week amid speculation the U.S. could ease sanctions on Russian output, while the risk of a global trade war could hit demand for energy. Brent futures rose 0.4% to $73.07 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures also added 0.4% to $70.04 per barrel.

Since they began just over a month ago, the twists and turns of the federal employee firings have been hard to keep straight. Guided by billionaire Elon Musk and his Department Of Government Efficiency aides, President Donald Trump has spent his first five weeks focused on dismantling the federal government, including shutting down the United States Agency for International Development and taking steps to do the same to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Trump has also discussed trying to eliminate the Department of Education. After a buyout offer was accepted by fewer federal employees than expected, tens of thousands of federal workers on probation have already been laid off. These probationary workers include employees in their first year or two on the job, people who have recently moved between federal agencies and people who were recently promoted. The firings have affected all 50 states and include employees at agencies that Americans frequently interact with including the National Park Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Internal Revenue Service, National Institutes of Health and many others. And they have continued as the weeks pass. The White House has not responded to repeated requests from USA TODAY for a precise number of fired employees. The firings are expected to shift next month to include workers not in a probationary period.

Jan. 20: Trump signs executive order changing job classifications

Among his first actions as president, Trump signed an executive order that revives a policy from the final days of his first administration known as Schedule F. The directive creates a new employment classification for tens of thousands of nonpartisan career civil servants, effectively stripping them of job protections by reclassifying them as at-will positions, meaning they can be dismissed for nearly any reason. A separate executive order froze hiring of federal civilian employees in the executive branch. It states that any federal civilian position vacant when Trump took office may not be filled, and no new position may be created with rare exceptions.

Jan. 28: Buyout offer made to federal employees

Trump’s administration offered buyouts to nearly all 2.3 million federal employees. The offer came in a surprise email that hit inboxes at 6:04 p.m. on Jan. 28 with the subject line: “The Fork in the Road.” In the email the U.S. Office of Personnel Management offered all federal employees eight months of pay and benefits through September if they resigned by Feb. 6. Unions warned workers considering Trump’s offer that there is no guarantee the president can or will stick to it because Congress hasn’t approved funding for federal agencies past March 14.

Jan. 29: Union sues over reclassifying federal employees

Unions representing federal employees sued the Trump administration to block the schedule F executive order, alleging that it aimed to politicize the federal government by stripping federal workers of job protections.

Feb. 4: USAID employees placed on administrative leave

About 10,000 employees of the United States Agency for International Development ‒ two-thirds of whom work overseas across 60 countries ‒ were notified that they will be placed on administrative leave at the end of the week as part of Trump’s move to dismantle the foreign aid agency.

Feb. 5: Government warns of furloughs

The Trump administration warned federal employees that they could be furloughed if they did not accept the buyout offer, according to an email obtained by USA TODAY. The email warned employees that many will be stripped of civil-service protections and suggested there may be loyalty tests for those who remain.

Feb. 6: Boston judge temporarily halts deadline to accept buyout offer

U.S. District Judge George O’Toole issued a temporary restraining order pausing the Trump administration’s deadline to accept the buyout in order to allow time for labor unions to challenge the plan’s legality. The American Federation of Government Employees and two other unions filed the lawsuit arguing that the administration lacks any statutory basis for the “unprecedented offer.” The Trump administration’s lawyers had argued that extending the deadline on the very last day would “markedly disrupt the expectations of the federal workforce, inject tremendous uncertainty into a program that scores of federal employees have already availed themselves of, and hinder the administration’s efforts to reform the federal workforce.” Also on Feb. 6, the administration ordered all federal department and agency heads to produce lists of their lowest-performing employees. The order from OPM Acting Director Charles Ezell also asked departments and agencies to identify potential barriers to ensuring “the ability to swiftly terminate poor performing employees who cannot or will not improve.”

Feb. 7: Trump fires head of the federal agency dedicated to guarding the federal workforce from illegal personnel actions

An aide to Trump fired Hampton Dellinger, who leads the Office of the Special Counsel, on the night of Feb. 7 in a one-sentence email. Dellinger sued, arguing that 1978 federal law creating his position states he can only be removed from his job because of inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance. Probationary employees largely rely on the Special Counsel to back them when challenging a dismissal through the proper government channels rather than suing.

Feb. 10: Trump fires leaders of two internal boards employees use to protest firings

Within a matter of minutes Trump fired the leaders of two other boards that federal workers can turn to as an avenue to contest their firing. Union challenges to the firings have been rejected because they have not first gone through these boards. Trump fired Merit Systems Protection Board chair Cathy Harris, just before 11 p.m., leaving the board with two members – Raymond Limon, a Democrat whose term expires Saturday, and Henry Kerner, a Republican. A court temporarily reinstated Harris, whose term doesn’t expire until 2028, after she sued. The Merit Systems Protection Board is tasked with protecting federal workers against partisan politics and illegal employment practices. It cannot operate without a quorum. Trump also fired the Federal Labor Relations Authority board chair, Susan Grundmann, three and a half minutes before he fired Cathy Harris. The authority handles certain complaints with federal workers’ labor unions. She’s suing to be reinstated, but for the time being, Trump named Colleen Kiko, a Republican member, as chair, presiding over only one other member, Democrat Anne Wagner. Also on Feb. 10, a court temporarily reinstated Dellinger, who promptly asked the Merit Systems Protection Board to pause the terminations of six probationary employees at six agencies, and reinstate them while he investigated their cases. The Supreme Court has declined to take up the administration’s case while Dellinger’s challenge goes forward.

Feb. 11: Trump signs executive order to make major cuts to federal work force

Trump signed an executive order Feb. 11 that seeks to significantly reduce the size of the government by instructing heads of federal departments and agencies to undertake plans for “large-scale reductions in force.” A White House summary of the order said agency heads were ordered to “coordinate and consult with DOGE to shrink the size of the federal workforce and limit hiring to essential positions.” Under the order, federal agencies aren’t allowed to hire more than one employee for every four employees who depart. It also instructed the U.S. Office of Personnel Management to create new rules to ensure future federal hires are subject to additional conduct standards, such as U.S. citizenship and filing federal tax returns on time.

Feb. 12: Judge allows buyouts to move forward

O’Toole, the Boston-based federal judge, restored Trump’s buyout project, deciding federal employees unions that sued to stop the program lacked standing to bring their challenge and that his court does not have jurisdiction to hear their complaint. In total, about 75,000 federal employees accepted President Donald Trump’s buyout offer. That equaled about 3.3% of the federal government’s 2.3 million workers, coming in below the White House’s projections that 5% to 10% of the workforce would accept. Congress has not yet approved spending for the next year or said spending for buyouts would be included.

Feb. 13: Thousands of probationary employees are fired across the government

Thousands of recently hired federal workers received notice that they had been fired. Probationary workers are easier to fire because they lack the bargaining rights that career employees have to appeal their terminations. Firings were government-wide: from the Department of Education and Small Business Administration to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Forest Service, the Department of Veterans Affairs and the agency that oversees the nation’s fleet of nuclear weapons. The firings have continued in the weeks since, including more than 880 probationary employees of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – which forecasts the nation’s weather and protects ocean species – on Thursday.

Feb. 20: Unions sue over firing probationary employees

A coalition of federal employee unions sued the administration, alleging that officials misused the probationary period to eliminate staff and that the Office of Personnel Management directed federal agencies to use a standardized termination notice falsely claiming performance issues in firing tens of thousands of employees. “OPM, the federal agency charged with implementing this nation’s employment laws, in one fell swoop has perpetrated one of the most massive employment frauds in the history of this country, telling tens of thousands of workers that they are being fired for performance reasons, when they most certainly were not,” the unions argued in court documents.

Feb. 24: Office of Special Counsel says firing of probationary employees was illegal

Dellinger, who leads the Office of the Special Counsel, said firing probationary employees was illegal because it used boilerplate language blaming their performance rather than specific concerns and asked the Merit Systems Protection Board to decide whether to reinstate six employees while he investigates further. Federal law generally requires 60 days’ notice for a reduction in force (what the federal government calls layoffs) and prohibits probationary employees from being fired for reasons unrelated to performance or conduct.

Feb. 25: Merit Systems Protection Board reinstates some probationary employees

The Merit Systems Protection Board orders six fired federal employees to be rehired at least through April 10, while Dellinger’s office investigates. “I find that there are reasonable grounds to believe that each of the six agencies engaged in a prohibited personnel practice,” stated the order. The Office of Special Counsel has said it is considering ways to seek relief for a broader group of federal employees similarly fired in recent weeks.

Feb. 27: California judge blocks firing of probationary employees

Judge William Alsup of the U.S. District Court for the Northern California District temporarily blocked the Trump administration from its mass firing of probationary federal employees. Alsup said the mass firings were likely unlawful and ordered the Office of Personnel Management to halt the action, saying the agency acted out of bounds by telling other agencies – including the Education Department, the Small Business Administration and the Energy Department – to fire employees. “OPM does not have any authority whatsoever, under any statute in the history of the universe, to hire or fire any employees, but its own,” Alsup said. The judge did not order the rehiring of anyone who had been terminated.

What is ahead?

The Trump administration has ordered heads of federal departments and agencies to prepare to initiate “large-scale reductions in force” by March 13 as Trump shifts to a more aggressive phase of cutting the federal workforce beyond recently hired or promoted employees. A memo sent by the Personnel Management and Management and Budget offices has also instructed federal departments to eliminate and consolidate duplicative positions, reduce their property footprints and produce reorganization plans for their agencies.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.59%) has surged by nearly 67% since it began its bull market in October 2022, as of this writing, bolstered by strong consumer spending and consistent corporate earnings growth. But some investors are worried about a shift in the market. Inflation unexpectedly rose earlier this year, and bearish sentiment among investors is the highest it’s been in the past 12 months, according to weekly surveys from the American Association of Individual Investors. In fact, only around 19% of U.S. investors are feeling optimistic about the market’s six-month future. So what should you do with your investments right now? Is it time to get out of the market? Or is it safe to continue investing? Here’s what history suggests.

Timing the market is riskier than it may seem

To be clear, it’s impossible to predict the market’s future based on past performance. Nobody knows exactly where stock prices will be in a few months or a year, and despite growing concern about the market, we don’t know whether we’ll even face a downturn in 2025. For that reason, trying to time the market is a risky move. It may make sense in theory to dump your stocks before a major market move. But because we don’t know when that move will happen, you risk selling at the wrong time. Stocks may continue to surge right after you sell, and you’ll have missed out on those earnings. While it can seem counterintuitive, continuing to invest consistently is one of the safest things you can do right now.

History has good news for consistent investors

Historically, the market has managed to recover from every crash and recession it’s ever faced. Even more importantly, those who benefited the most were the investors who continued buying throughout all the market’s highs and lows. For example, say that you were investing in an S&P 500 index fund in January 2008. The market was just starting its descent into the Great Recession, a bear market that would last over a year. That may have seemed like the worst possible time to be an investor, and to be sure, the short term would have been rough. But if you’d simply held your investment for the next 10 years, you’d have earned returns of more than 82%.

^SPX data by YCharts On the other hand, say that you avoided the market entirely throughout the Great Recession, waiting until January 2014 to begin buying again. At that point, the S&P 500 had just reached a new all-time high, and it may have seemed like a much safer time to invest.

^SPX data by YCharts However, from 2014 to 2018, you’d only have earned returns of around 45%. While you would have experienced much less turbulence by waiting to invest, it also would have slashed your potential earnings.

Bad news is an investor’s best friend

Market downturns are rough, and even seasoned investors are often unnerved by them. But one of the best ways to build long-term wealth is to continue investing no matter what happens in the market. This is an approach even Warren Buffett swears by. In 2008, he wrote an opinion piece for The New York Times to encourage nervous investors amid the Great Recession. In it, he explained that market slumps can be one of the best times to buy, as you can snag higher-priced stocks at a discount. “[I]n the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank,” he wrote. “In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.” If the market takes a turn for the worse, it can be tempting to pull your money out and avoid investing. But if you have the cash to spare, buying more during a market slump can get you more bang for your buck — and set you up for serious earnings when stocks inevitably recover. Market volatility is normal, but it can also be tough to stomach. By shifting your focus toward ways to take advantage of a downturn, it can be a little easier to avoid letting nerves take over.

US stocks seesawed Friday, but all three major indexes closed the month in the red — a sign of increasing unease in markets. Volatility gripped markets as traders closed out a dismal February that wiped out some gains. “Extreme fear” was the sentiment driving markets on Friday and for the fourth day in a row, according to CNN’s Fear and Greed Index. Stocks initially rose Friday morning, buoyed by cooling inflation data that provided relief for investors. Yet markets moved into the red midday following a very public heated exchange at the White House between President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky that stoked uncertainty around geopolitical stability. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, popped to its highest level this year. In afternoon trading, markets recouped losses, and the major indexes surged higher to close out the day. The Dow ended the day up 601 points, or 1.39%, while the broader S&P 500 rose 1.59% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.63%. Yet US markets sputtered in February and slid this week. The benchmark S&P 500 slid 1% this week and is down 1.4% this month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 3.5% this week and 4% this month, its worth month since April 2024. “We believe there is valid concern in the markets about the amount of money being spent on Artificial Intelligence datacenters and capex, considering news from China AI startup DeepSeek in late January,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, in a Friday note. Tentarelli said uncertainty about AI spending coupled with concerns about economic growth has led many of the stocks leading the Nasdaq to underperform. The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward tech and was driven higher last year by companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA) and Palantir (PLTR). Yet those surging tech stocks have slowed down this month. Tesla shares are down about 26% over the past month. The reasons for the Nasdaq’s decline range from inflation risk to decelerating growth to its stocks having tough outlooks compared to other assets, said Ted Mortonson, managing director at Baird, in an email. “Concerns about potential economic growth deceleration may be fostering increased risk aversion, potentially leading investors to shift away from the more volatile Nasdaq index in favor of more stable investment options,” said David Smith, a professor of economics at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School. Nvidia posted strong quarterly earnings on Wednesday, though its stock’s high valuation raises the question of how much more room there is to run. Still, the broader market remains near its all-time high, reached just last week. And the bumpiness in the market isn’t all that unusual for this time of year. “The stock market’s recent declines are simply garden variety volatility, largely because February is historically a volatile month, and because we saw significant gains throughout January,” said Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer at Brave Eagle Wealth Management. Slowdown in consumer spending flashes warning signal While new inflation data matched expectations, other economic data released Friday revealed cracks in the economy that contributed to weary investor sentiment: Consumer spending pulled back far more than economists expected in January and posted the biggest monthly decline since February 2021. “Investors will continue to focus on the uncertain growth trajectory as real spending unexpectedly fell in January from weaker consumer demand,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL financial, in a note. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s estimates for economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 were also revised on Friday to project a decline of 1.5%, rather than growth of 2.3%. “This huge drop in the estimate reflects the very weak data that has been coming out on retail sales, net imports, inventories and new home sales,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, in an email. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said he is cautious about the market due to high valuations. At UBS, strategists advised preparing for volatility ahead, though considered the bull market intact. “We think the bull market is intact driven by healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and AI spending/adoption,” said David Lefkowitz, head of US Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a Friday note. “But we have also cautioned that volatility would likely be higher this year due to policy uncertainty and trade frictions. Therefore, we have been highlighting that short-term hedges may be worth considering,” said Lefkowitz.