US stocks climbed on Monday, with focus on more mixed economic data ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained about 0.6% to rebound for a second day in row, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) gained more than 350 points, or more than 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 0.3% as “Magnificent 7” stocks, including Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), faltered.

The gauges continued a climb after a sell-off that saw the S&P 500 enter correction territory and the Dow book its worst weekly performance since March 2023. Markets have been buffeted by economic slowdown fears and uncertainty over Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent inflamed those worries on Sunday when he told NBC that he’s not worried about the recent slump in stocks, saying “corrections are healthy.” He added that there are “no guarantees” the US will avoid recession.

On Monday, rate-cut bets this year rose after a fresh print showed retail sales increased less than expected in February, while January’s reading was revised lower.

Monthly retail sales were up 0.2%, versus estimates of a 0.6% rise, while the previous month’s 0.9% drop was revised to a fall of 1.2%.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s reading on manufacturing activity in New York state showed a sharp pullback in March, with the headline business conditions index falling to -20 from a reading of 5.7 in February.

Wall Street is also bracing for the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting starting Tuesday, where it is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates. Investors will look for any sign that Trump’s policies are changing the central bank’s views of the future of the economy.

During Donald Trump’s first term as US president, he regularly referred to rising stock markets as evidence of the success of his economic policies. “Highest Stock Market EVER”, Trump wrote on social media in 2017 after record gains. “That doesn’t just happen!”

And after securing a second term in November 2024, some of Trump’s close advisers told the New York Times that the president “sees the market as a barometer of his success and abhors the idea that his actions might drive down stock prices”.

This, in addition to a broader economic policy agenda committed to lower regulation and significant tax cuts, had Wall Street investors bullish about their prospects under the new Trump administration.

But fears of an escalating trade war have seen the S&P 500, an index of the leading 500 publicly traded companies in the US, drop more than 10% from its February 2025 high. A decline of this magnitude in a major index is what professional traders refer to as a “correction”. In less than a month, roughly US$5 trillion (£3.9 trillion) has been wiped off the value of US stocks.

So, what exactly is driving down stock prices? Economists cite the president’s brinkmanship, as well as his start-stop approach to tariffs with Canada and Mexico, as having rattled global investors. Some commentators believe this “chaotic” trade agenda has created huge uncertainty for consumers, investors and businesses.

In view of such policies, a recent JP Morgan report said that US economic policy was “tilting away from growth”, and put the chances of a US recession at 40%, up from 30% at the start of the year. Moody’s Analytics has upped the odds of a US recession from 15% to 35%, citing tariffs as a key factor driving the downturn in its outlook.

Any economic downturn would have an adverse impact on the profitability of US corporations, and the declining share prices reflect the negative outlook from investors.

So far, the Trump administration appears unfazed by the US stock market decline. In an address to Congress on March 4, Trump declared his use of tariffs was all about making America rich again. “There will be a little disturbance, but we’re okay with that,” he said.

The White House has, since then, announced that some short-term pain may be necessary for Trump to implement his trade agenda successfully, which is designed to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US.

So, should we read this economic turbulence as a temporary blip? Or is it symptomatic of a more fundamental shift in the US economy?

Change of strategy

Stephen Miran, who was recently confirmed as chairman of Trump’s council of economic advisers, wrote a paper in November 2024 titled: A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System. The paper gives us an insight into the Trump administration’s wider economic strategy.

It sets out Trump’s desire “to reform the global trading system and put American industry on fairer ground vis-a-vis the rest of the world”. Miran cites persistent US dollar overvaluation as the root cause of economic imbalances.

Miran does not believe that tariffs are inflationary, and argues that their use during Trump’s first presidential term had little discernible macroeconomic consequences. He does concede that tariffs may eventually lead to an appreciation – or further overvaluation – of the US dollar. However, Miran sees the extent of that appreciation as “debatable”.

He sees tariffs as a tool for leverage in trade negotiations. The administration could, for example, agree to a reduction in tariffs in exchange for significant investment is the US by key trading partners. China investing in car manufacturing in the US is specifically mentioned in his analysis.

Miran also states his belief that tariffs can be used to raise tax revenues from foreigners in order to retain low tax rates on American citizens.

Some economists agree that the US dollar is overvalued. A combination of its role as the world’s reserve currency, as well as the attractiveness of the US economy as an investment destination, fuels demand for the US dollar and makes it stronger.

A strong US dollar has made American manufacturing exports less competitive. This has cost American jobs. The “rust belt” states of the north-eastern and mid-western US have experienced a decline in manufacturing employment over the past 40 years, which is evidence of this.

However, it is worth noting that the many US manufacturers who import manufactured parts or components to make their products do benefit from a stronger dollar. This is because it makes the parts and materials they are importing cheaper. US mortgage holders and investors also benefit from a stronger dollar through lower interest rates on loans.

Steven Englander, the head of research and strategy at Standard Chartered bank, believes there are some contradictions in the Trump administration’s approach.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Englander said: “The problem for the new administration is that it simultaneously wants a weaker dollar, a reduced trade deficit, capital inflows, and the dollar to remain the key currency in international reserves and payments.”

Reduced trade deficits and capital inflows would typically strengthen the US dollar, as does its position as the world’s reserve currency.

As Miran says in his paper: “There is a path by which the Trump administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America’s benefit. But it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimise adverse consequences.”

Only time will tell whether the Trump administration can successfully navigate this “narrow” path. In the meantime, the recent turbulence in US stock prices appears to be acceptable to the Trump administration in their pursuit of reforming the global financial system.

Bitcoin (BTC 1.01%) and XRP (XRP 0.93%) might be a bit safer than some crypto assets, but it isn’t as though they’re rock solid when things are falling apart. As the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 enter correction territory, investors are starting to worry more about a potential market crash.

And some are pondering which of these two assets would hold up better in a crash and which would be worth buying in the aftermath?

History is worth understanding

To start, let’s take a look at how Bitcoin and XRP performed during the early 2020 coronavirus market crash.

Here’s the chart:

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

As you can see, both assets dumped hard during the crash, along with the rest of the market, which is to be expected. Then, over the next five years both climbed.

Bitcoin has done slightly better since the 2020 crash, and its price action was generally less volatile than XRP’s, which isn’t an advantage, except for those who like to sleep more soundly without worrying about the value of their investments.

But what about during the next market crash?

XRP is a cryptocurrency with value that’s derived from its utility as a medium of exchange rather than as a store of value. For it to have value as a medium of exchange, it needs to be actively demanded by its users, who must then transfer the coin between each other, and who must also have a reason to need more of it in the future. Given that its users are financial institutions seeking to avoid incurring currency exchange fees and international money transfer fees, the health and activity level of those financial institutions is a key consideration for the future demand for XRP.

Market crashes tend to coincide with periods of great uncertainty, particularly economic and financial uncertainty. Financial institutions, like most businesses, are loath to make big investments or big strategic plays during such periods. And, on average, that means the odds are good that they won’t need to make as many international money transfers. So investors will likely assume that the level of demand for XRP will be lower when uncertainty is highest.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, does not have much value derived from its utility. While it can be a medium of exchange, most investors look to it as a store of value. That makes sense given its supply dynamics, which ensure that there’s a smaller and smaller quantity of Bitcoin produced over time, generating scarcity. Scarcity doesn’t necessarily create demand, but it ensures that the price level will continue to rise over time so long as there is demand.

Investors might tend to liquidate some of their stores of value during turbulent times so that they have enough fiat currency on hand to cover contingencies, but wise holders of Bitcoin understand that doing so is a compromise, as the odds of the coin being worth more in the long term are quite good thanks to its increasing scarcity. Therefore the odds are also good that holders who sell coins will become buyers once again, perhaps even in advance of the market deciding that the hard times have passed.

There’s only one real choice

No ones knows when the next market crash will happen, but Bitcoin looks like the better market-crash play.

It is possible to imagine the circumstances of a crash being events that create a high probability of a global or localized economic recession, which could last years. Under those conditions, Bitcoin is unlikely to flourish. Still, XRP would almost certainly suffer more, as the very thing that makes it valuable, its usefulness, simply wouldn’t be very appealing anymore, as users would be scaling back investments in new financial technologies rather than deepening them.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s supply dynamics will continue grinding onward regardless of whether there’s a lot of demand. That means when demand eventually does come back, the new buyers will be competing fiercely, driving prices up. XRP doesn’t have any similar mechanic, even if it’s a good coin to buy generally.

Don’t sweat the possibility of a market crash too much. If you’re concerned, just keep some capital on hand so that you’re ready to buy.

Economists are reportedly concerned that recent stock market turbulence could drive down consumer spending.

That’s because, per a report Sunday (March 16) by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the top 10% of American earners have in the last four years boosted spending by 58%. And it’s not just the ultra-wealthy investing in the stock market, with Vanguard and Fidelity reporting record participation and contributions to their 401(k) plans for wage earners.

At the close of 2024, 43% of American households’ financial assets were in stocks, the highest percentage on record, WSJ said, citing Federal Reserve data. And while many lower-income households don’t own equities, the share that does is rising.

This has left economists worried that a severe market collapse could lead Americans to reduce spending on things like vacations and new apparel, what’s known as the wealth effect.

There are already some signs this is happening, with companies such as Delta Air Lines, Foot Locker and Jack Daniel’s maker Brown-Forman reporting consumer caution.

That’s on top of the strain witnessed among discount merchants, such as Dollar General, which discussed tighter spending during its fourth-quarter earnings report last week.

“Our customers continue to report that their financial situation has worsened over the last year, as they have been negatively impacted by ongoing inflation,” Todd Vasos, the company’s CEO, told analysts. “Many of our customers report that they only have enough money for basic essentials, with some noting that they have had to sacrifice even on the necessities.”

And last week, the University of Michigan published its monthly survey of consumer sentiment, showing that metric had hit its lowest level since November 2022, partially because of sliding expectations for personal finances and the stock market.

“Consumers are souring on their job prospects, and their expectations about inflation are worsening. For merchants, that means a perfect storm is brewing,” PYMNTS wrote at the time. “Their own costs are rising, their ability to pass those costs along (in the form of higher prices) will be truncated, and gauging customer demand will be difficult at best and impossible at worst.”

As PYMNTS CEO Karen Webster wrote in a recent column, when economic conditions tighten, high earners are known to curtail their spending, much as lower-income households do.

“Consumers across all income brackets are likely to pull back on spending, but for different reasons,” Webster wrote.

“Those with savings cushions may voluntarily push pause on spending until they have more certainty in order to preserve cash and income, while those without financial shock absorbers in the form of savings will be forced to cut back out of necessity.”

In mid-February, President Trump spoke at an investment conference and offered a prediction.

“We’re on the verge of soaring markets,” he told the crowd in Miami that evening. “I think the stock market is going to be great.”

Unfortunately for him and for investors, it turned out to be tough timing. That Feb. 19 speech ended up taking place during the peak of the recent market, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) then beginning a now weeks-long decline.

And the selling hasn’t abated. Markets are now firmly in correction territory with prices down over 10% this week from the levels on that February evening.

That turn in market fortunes has forced Trump into a rapid reorientation of how he has talked about stocks, even as he has also repeatedly said that the long-term gains he sees coming from his tariff agenda will outweigh the current “turbulence.”

But even amid the selling, Trump couldn’t resist an occasional foray into his long-held role as a sort of stock pundit-in-chief.

Last Tuesday, Trump appeared alongside Elon Musk to buy a Tesla and perhaps prop up that beleaguered stock (TSLA). And he couldn’t resist a message to overall investors to buy the dip.

“Some people are going to make great deals by buying stocks and bonds and all the things they are buying,” he said, adding that “smart” businessmen he knows “are now investing because of what I’m doing because long term what I’m doing is making our country strong again.”

A round-trip journey since Election Day

During Joe Biden’s presidency, Trump’s rhetoric on the market often whipsawed dramatically as he tried to explain price increases under a Democratic administration that he had promised would be bad for investors.

“If he’s elected,” Trump said in 2020 while pointing across the debate stage at Biden, “the stock market will crash.”

Bitcoin failed to sustain levels above $85,000 on March 14, despite a 1.9% gain in the S&P 500 index. More importantly, it has been over a week since Bitcoin last traded at $90,000, prompting traders to question whether the bull market is truly over and how long selling pressure will persist.

Bitcoin basis rate rebounds from bearish levels

From a derivatives perspective, Bitcoin metrics have shown resilience despite a 30% drop from its all-time high of $109,354 on Jan. 20. The Bitcoin basis rate, which measures the premium of monthly contracts over spot markets, has recovered to healthy levels after briefly signaling bearish sentiment on March 13.

Traders typically demand a 5% to 10% annualized premium to compensate for longer settlement periods. A basis rate below this threshold signals weak demand from leveraged buyers. While the current 5% rate is lower than the 8% recorded two weeks ago, it remains within neutral territory.

Central banks will eventually boost BTC price

Bitcoin price action has closely tracked the S&P 500, suggesting that factors driving investor risk aversion may not be directly tied to the top cryptocurrency.

However, this also challenges the idea of Bitcoin as a non-correlated asset, as its price behavior has aligned more closely with traditional markets, at least in the short term.

If Bitcoin’s price remains heavily dependent on the stock market, which is under pressure due to fears of an economic recession, investors are likely to keep reducing exposure to risk-on assets and shift toward short-term bonds for safety.

However, central banks are expected to implement stimulus measures to avoid a recession, and scarce assets like Bitcoin are likely to outperform as a result.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the markets are pricing less than 40% odds for interest rates in the US below 3.75% from the current 4.25% baseline ahead of the July 30 FOMC meeting.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin should reclaim the $90,000 level as soon as the S&P 500 pares some of its recent 10% losses. But in a worst-case scenario, panic selling of risk-on assets could continue.

Under such conditions, BTC would likely keep underperforming over the next few months, especially if spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to experience significant and sustained net outflows.

Bitcoin derivatives show no signs of stress

Professional traders are not actively using Bitcoin options for hedging presently, as shown by the 25% delta skew metric. This implies that few market participants expect the BTC price to retest the $76,900 level anytime soon.

Bullish sentiment typically leads to put (sell) options trading at a 6% or higher discount. In contrast, bearish periods cause the indicator to rise to a 6% premium, as seen briefly on March 10 and March 12. However, the 25% delta skew has recently stayed within the neutral range, reflecting a healthy derivatives market.

To better gauge trader sentiment, examining BTC margin markets is important. Unlike derivatives contracts, which are always balanced between longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers), margin markets let traders borrow stablecoins to buy spot Bitcoin. Similarly, bearish traders can borrow BTC to open short positions, betting on a price drop.

The Bitcoin long-to-short margin ratio at OKX shows longs outweighing shorts by 18 times. Historically, excessive confidence has pushed this ratio above 40 times, while levels below five times favoring longs are seen as bearish. The current ratio mirrors sentiment on Jan. 30, when Bitcoin traded above $100,000.

There are no signs of stress or bearishness in Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets, which is reassuring, especially after over $920 million in leveraged long futures contracts were liquidated in the seven days ending March 13.

Therefore, as recession risks ease, Bitcoin price is likely to reclaim the $90,000 level in the coming weeks, given the resilience in investor sentiment.

Elon Musk’s electric carmaker Tesla has warned it and other US exporters could be harmed by countries retaliating to Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

Mr Musk is a close ally of the US president and is leading efforts to reduce the size of the federal government.

But in an unsigned letter addressed to the US trade representative, Tesla said while it “supports” fair trade it was concerned US exporters were “exposed to disproportionate impacts” if other countries retaliated to tariffs.

The letter was dated the same day that Trump hosted an event at the White House where he promised to buy a Tesla in a show of support for Mr Musk.

It is unclear who at Tesla wrote the letter as it is unsigned, or if Mr Musk was aware of it.

Tesla’s share price has dropped 40% since the start of the year. Mr Musk is the carmaker’s chief executive and while some have argued his alignment with the Trump administration is hurting its brand, market analysts say the share fall is more about worries over Tesla meeting production targets and a drop in sales over the past year.

In the letter, Tesla said it was making changes to its supply chains to find as many local suppliers for its cars and batteries so it was less reliant on foreign markets.

“None the less,” it warned, “even with aggressive localisation of the supply chain, certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the US.”

The US president has imposed an additional 20% tariff on all imports from China, prompting Beijing to respond with retaliatory levies including on cars. China is Tesla’s second biggest market after the US.

“For example, past trade actions by the United States have resulted in immediate reactions by the targeted countries, including increased tariffs on EVs imported into those countries,” the letter reads.

The EU and Canada have both threatened sweeping retaliations for tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US, which went into effect earlier this week.

Demonstrators have targeted Tesla showrooms in recent weeks in protest against Mr Musk’s cost-cutting role in Trump’s administration, where he is head of the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge).

Earlier this week, Trump hosted an event at the White House where he said people protesting against Tesla should be labelled domestic terrorists, while sitting in the driver’s seat of a brand new red Tesla that he said he planned to buy.

Trump said demonstrators were “harming a great American company”, and anyone using violence against the electric carmaker would “go through hell”.

Stocks rallied Friday, clawing back some of the steep losses seen over the week, as investors got a reprieve from tariff-related headlines.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 674.62 points, or 1.65%, to close at 41,488.19. The S&P 500 climbed 2.13% to end at 5,638.94, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.61% to settle at 17,754.09. It was the best day in 2025 for both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Big tech shares that were rattled earlier this week saw a sharp recovery on Friday. Nvidia shares popped more than 5%. Tesla jumped nearly 4%, and Meta Platforms gained close to 3%. Amazon and Apple also rose.

Stocks bounced after a lack of new headlines out of the White House related to tariffs, easing concerns around escalating tensions for the time being. Investors might also be scooping up shares after a stock market pullback on Thursday.

A decline of more than 1% Thursday pulled the S&P 500 into a correction – a decline of at least 10% from the record close notched just 16 days ago. The session’s sell-off dragged the Nasdaq further into correction, and it brought the small-cap Russell 2000 closer to a bear market, or a drawdown of 20% from its high.

That marked another milestone in the pullback that has gripped investors over the past three weeks as President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policy drove up uncertainty and market volatility.

Indeed, even Friday’s rally couldn’t spare the three major averages from weekly losses. The Dow fell roughly 3.1% for its worst week since March 2023. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both dropped more than 2% and posted their fourth consecutive losing week.

Adding to Friday’s positive sentiment was Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., saying he wouldn’t block a Republican government funding bill.

However, data released Friday from the University of Michigan confirmed that consumer confidence has suffered from the ongoing tariff-related uncertainty, worries that have driven the market down the last three weeks. Consumer sentiment dropped in March to 57.9, lower than the 63.2 economists polled by Dow Jones had expected.

“Consumer sentiment came in worse, inflation expectations are rising, the 10-year Treasury yield is rising. You would think that the market would be off. So a lot of folks are watching to see if this rally has any breadth or legs,” said Thomas Martin, portfolio manager at Globalt Investments.

Investors are gearing up for the Federal Reserve policy meeting scheduled for next week, where fed funds futures are pricing in a 97% likelihood of interest rates holding steady, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

“What we would like to see is rates not go up, because that would be an indication that the Fed is losing control. If the Fed says they’re cutting and rates go up, that’s a lack of confidence,” Martin added.

The stock market is taking a beating—again. The Nasdaq just hit its lowest level since 2020, the S&P 500 is deep in the red, and investors are scrambling. Recession fears, inflation worries, and policy uncertainty have Wall Street on edge. But Warren Buffett? He’s been here before. And if history is any guide, he’d tell you that now is not the time to panic—it’s the time to pay attention.

Fear Is Your Worst Enemy

Buffett has spent decades reminding investors that bad news is often their best opportunity. During the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, he penned a New York Times op-ed titled “Buy American. I Am.” The market was tanking, fear was at an all-time high, and yet Buffett was buying. Why? Because, as he put it, “bad news is an investor’s best friend.” Economic downturns bring stock prices down, giving long-term investors the chance to buy great companies at a discount. The trick isn’t predicting what the market will do next—it’s understanding the difference between price and value.

The Mistake of Market Obsession

Buffett has always dismissed the idea of timing the market. “Will stocks decline in the coming days, weeks, and months? This is the wrong question to ask… primarily because it is entirely unanswerable,” he said. What really matters is whether stocks are selling for less than they’re worth. And he’s been right. The S&P 500 kept dropping after his 2008 op-ed, losing another 26% before finally turning around in March 2009. But those who listened to Buffett and bought during the chaos ended up reaping massive gains in the years that followed.

Fear vs. Opportunity

Buffett has a simple rule: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” That lesson has held true in every major market crash, from the Great Depression to 2008 to COVID-19. At Berkshire Hathaway’s (NASDAQ:BRK, BRK.B)) 2020 shareholder meeting, Buffett compared fear to the virus itself: “Some people are more subject to fear than others.” He argued that some investors “really shouldn’t own stocks” because they panic when prices drop and sell at exactly the wrong time. “You’ve got to be prepared, when you buy a stock, to have it go down 50%—or more—and be comfortable with it, as long as you’re comfortable with the holding,” he said.

The Real Risk? Holding Cash

While many investors scramble for safety in cash, Buffett warns against it. “Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t,” he wrote in 2008. Inflation erodes the value of cash, while equities almost always outperform over time. That said, despite Buffett’s well-documented distaste for holding cash, Berkshire Hathaway is currently sitting on a record $350 billion. Some believe this signals that Buffett sees the market as overvalued and is waiting for a correction—positioning himself to deploy that cash when stocks become a bargain, just as he has done in past downturns. His advice was to think like hockey great Wayne Gretzky: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.” Markets move ahead of sentiment and economic recovery. By the time things “feel safe,” the best opportunities are long gone.

Buffett’s Takeaway: Stay the Course

Buffett doesn’t pretend to know what the market will do tomorrow. But he knows that over time, the stock market has always rewarded those who stay invested. “Most major companies will be setting new profit records five, 10, and 20 years from now,” he predicted in 2008. And history has proven him right—again and again. Ultimately, investing in stocks isn’t for everyone. Not everyone has the risk tolerance to weather major market declines, and that’s okay. There are plenty of ways to build wealth, and for those who prefer stability, safer options like bonds or diversified index funds might be a better fit. The key is knowing your own financial comfort zone and making decisions that align with your long-term goals.a

As gold races to new records, Wall Street analysts have rushed to raise their price targets, with the latest call from Macquarie Group predicting the precious metal will touch $3,500 in the third quarter. On Thursday, gold futures (GC=F) climbed above $2,990 per ounce as a trade war intensified and the release of modest inflation data raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to cut rates this year. “Year-to-date, gold has been running ahead of our expectations,” Marcus Garvey, head of commodities strategy at Macquarie, wrote on Thursday. “We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of $3,150 per ounce and our single point price high to $3,500 per ounce,” Garvey wrote. “President Trump’s rapid move to announce, if not always to enact, import tariffs has contributed to geopolitical uncertainty and boosted inflation expectations, helping push down front-end real rates and supporting gold in the face of periodic USD strength and initially reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts,” the strategist wrote. The target raise comes after strategists at BNP Paribas called for prices to push above $3,100 per ounce in the second quarter. “The Trump administration issuing a slew of tariff threats and the realigning of international relationships have added a new layer of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, providing a significant boost to gold,” BNP’s David Wilson wrote in a note on Wednesday. Gold futures have rallied more than 11% year to date, hitting multiple record highs since January. Wall Street has attributed much of these gains to continued central bank buying and tariff uncertainty, including the possibility that even imports of the precious metal into the US won’t be spared. Institutional investors have shipped elevated amounts of physical gold bars to vaults in New York in a move to front-run tariffs and take advantage of a price disparity between London and New York. Last month, Goldman Sachs analysts raised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from their prior projection of $2,890.