Nebius Group (NasdaqGS:NBIS): Assessing Valuation After Major AI Infrastructure Deal With Microsoft
Nebius Group (NasdaqGS:NBIS) made headlines this week after striking a long-term deal to supply AI infrastructure and GPU capacity to Microsoft. The agreement puts Nebius in a strong position as demand for AI workloads continues to soar.
On the heels of its multiyear deal with Microsoft and continued AI data center expansion, Nebius Group’s share price gained fresh momentum this week. This builds on a staggering rally that has seen investors focus on its leadership in cloud AI infrastructure and aggressive U.S. growth plans. While the latest share price sits at $127.98, recent moves reflect continued optimism about long-term demand for Nebius’s offerings in a market where growth potential still outpaces valuation concerns.
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The stock’s meteoric rise leaves investors wondering if, with all this rapid growth and hype, there is still value left on the table or if the market has already priced in every bit of future upside.
Most Popular Narrative: 16.4% Undervalued
With Nebius Group’s narrative fair value at $153 and the last close at $127.98, market optimism is high. This gap hints at a belief that the company’s growth surge has not yet peaked, even with soaring expectations already priced in.
The scarcity of ready-to-deploy, large-capacity data center sites has positioned Nebius advantageously. This has propelled the company to secure major deals with highly favorable economics. Revised price targets reflect confidence that Nebius can rapidly scale GPU installations and data center capacity. This could allow the company to outpace prior revenue and ARR projections as demand grows.
Want to know what’s fueling this sky-high estimate? The narrative rests on ultra-fast expansion, record-shattering revenue projections, and big bets on future profitability. What number-crunching and bold analyst assumptions back up this valuation? Discover the full logic and the financial jumps that drive this fair value call.
Result: Fair Value of $153 (UNDERVALUED)
However, intense competition and tighter regulations could dampen Nebius Group’s momentum and challenge the high growth and profitability forecasts underpinning today’s narrative.
Another View: Valuation Multiple Signals Mixed Messages
Looking at Nebius Group’s price-to-book ratio, it trades at 8.5x, which is more than double the US Software industry average of 4x, but still below similar peer companies at 14.4x. This means investors pay a premium versus most competitors in the industry, but not as much as some direct peers. Does this premium reflect justified optimism or could it be adding risk if growth expectations slip?
Build Your Own Nebius Group Narrative
If you want to dig deeper or have your own perspective, you can craft your own view of Nebius Group’s future in just a few minutes by using Do it your way
A great starting point for your Nebius Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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