China Q1 GDP growth beats expectations, but US tariff shock looms large

BEIJING, April 16 (Reuters) – China’s first-quarter economic growth outstripped expectations, underpinned by solid consumption and industrial output, but analysts fear momentum could shift sharply lower as U.S. tariffs pose the biggest risk to the Asian powerhouse in decades.

President Donald Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods to eye-watering levels, prompting Beijing to slap retaliatory duties on U.S. imports that have raised the stakes for the world’s two biggest economies and rattled financial markets.

Data on Wednesday showed China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, unchanged from the fourth quarter, but beat analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 5.1%.

Growth momentum is expected to cool sharply in the next few quarters, however, as Washington’s tariff shock hits the crucial export engine, heaping pressure on Chinese leaders to roll out more support measures to keep the world’s second-largest economy on an even keel.

Government stimulus boosted consumption and supported investment, said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, calling the 5.4% pace “a very good start.”

“In each of the past two years China had a high-flying first quarter and an underwhelming second quarter,” Xu said, adding that “a forceful and timely policy response” is needed given the additional pressure stemming from U.S. tariffs.

Exports have remained a lone bright spot in China’s economy, with a trillion-dollar trade surplus last year helping to underpin growth even as a prolonged property sector slump and sluggish domestic demand continue to undercut a solid recovery.
That complicates the policy challenge for Beijing as Trump’s relentless focus on China’s vast trade engine chokes off a key growth driver.

China’s Premier Li Qiang said this week the country’s exporters will have to cope with “profound” external changes, and vowed to support more domestic consumption.

Investors in China looked past the better-than-expected data, pushing benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC), opens new tab down nearly 1.0% and denting the yuan , as confidence remained frail amid a darkening growth outlook.

This chart depicts China's GDP (year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter) in each quarter.

This chart depicts China’s GDP (year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter) in each quarter.

“UNPRECEDENTED” CHALLENGE

Indeed, quarter-on-quarter momentum highlighted a softer underbelly, with the economy expanding 1.2% in the first quarter, slowing from 1.6% in October-December.

For 2025, the economy is expected to grow at a subdued 4.5% pace year-on-year, the Reuters poll showed, slowing from last year’s 5.0% pace and falling short of the official target of around 5.0%. Many analysts have sharply slashed their GDP forecasts for this year.

Citing the punitive U.S. duties, ANZ on Wednesday cut its China 2025 GDP forecast to 4.2% from 4.8% and to 4.3% from 4.5% for 2026.

UBS, opens new tab was even more pessimistic, having this week downgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the Asian giant to 3.4% from 4%, on the assumption that Sino-U.S. tariff hikes will remain in place and that Beijing will roll out additional stimulus.

“We think the tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges to China’s exports and will set forth major adjustment in the domestic economy as well,” analysts at UBS said in a note.

While several other countries have been swept up in U.S. tariffs, Trump has targeted China for the biggest levies.
Last week, Trump lifted duties on China to 145%, prompting Beijing to jack up levies on U.S. goods to 125% and dismissing U.S. trade actions as “a joke”.

UNEMPLOYMENT, DEFLATION WOES

The spiralling trade war with the United States took some of the shine off brighter notes in separate data.
Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March after gaining 4.0% in January-February, while factory
output growth quickened to 7.7% from 5.9% in the first two months. Both numbers topped analysts’ forecasts.

The retail sales uptick was driven by sharp double-digit gains in home electronics and furniture sales, helped by the government’s consumer goods trade-in scheme.

But China’s property downturn remained a drag on overall growth.

Property investment fell 9.9% year-on-year in the first three months, extending the 9.8% drop in January-February. March new home prices were unchanged on month.

The broader impulse from Wednesday’s data still pointed to an uneven economic recovery, particularly as elevated unemployment and persistent deflationary pressures heighten concerns over weak demand.

“Good GDP does not represent the overall economic health of an economy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. “Deflation and youth unemployment remain the primary concerns.”

Moreover, analysts say a surge in China’s March exports – driven by factories rushing shipments to beat the latest Trump tariffs – will reverse sharply in the months ahead as the hefty U.S. levies take effect.

AMPLE ROOM FOR STIMULUS

Policymakers have repeatedly said the country has ample room and tools to bolster the economy, and analysts expect further support measures in coming months following a blitz of monetary easing steps late last year.

Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating, citing rapidly rising government debt and risks to public finances, suggesting a tricky balancing act for policymakers seeking to expand consumption to guard against a trade downturn.

“The current situation is similar to the negative shocks China experienced in the past, such as the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2008,” ANZ’s Yeung said.

“We see limited options for Chinese authorities against the tariff shock except a large fiscal expansion.”

Nvidia shares fall after it says US controls on exports of AI chip will cost it $5.5 billion

BANGKOK (AP) — Shares in computer chip makers slumped in after-hours trading and in Asia after Nvidia said tighter U.S. government controls on exports of computer chips used for artificial intelligence will cost it an extra $5.5 billion.

The company, which announced Monday that it will produce its artificial intelligence super computers in the United States for the first time, said the government told it that its H20 integrated circuits and others of the same bandwidth would be subject to the controls for the “indefinite future.”

In a regulatory filing, it said the government said the controls addressed risks that the products “may be used in or diverted to, a supercomputer in China.”

Nvidia’s shares fell 6.3% in after-hours trading. Shares in rival chip maker AMD dropped 7.1% after markets closed.

Asian technology giants also saw big declines. Testing equipment maker Advantest’s shares fell 6.7% in Tokyo, Disco Corp. lost 7.6% and Taiwan’s TSMC dropped 2.4%.

Earlier, reports had said the Trump administration had backed away from imposing stricter licensing requirements on the H20 chip. Commerce Department officials were not immediately available for comment early Wednesday.

Nvidia said Monday it has commissioned more than one million square feet of manufacturing space to build and test its specialized Blackwell chips in Arizona and AI supercomputers in Texas — part of an investment the company said will produce up to half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure in the next four years.

The announcement comes after President Donald Trump and other officials said tariff exemptions on electronics like smartphones and laptops were only a temporary reprieve until officials develop a new tariff approach specific to the semiconductor industry.

Trump claimed that decision as a victory for his effort to expand manufacturing in the U.S.

Trump threatens new tariffs on smartphones days after exempting them

Donald Trump says Chinese-made smartphones and other electronics will not be exempt from tariffs – adding they are simply moving into a different levy “bucket”.

European stock markets bounced up on Monday morning after Friday’s official announcement that some of these products would escape levies of up to 145%.

China has called on Donald Trump to “completely cancel” his tariffs regime, and “return to the right path of mutual respect”.

However US officials said on Sunday that products would be subject to a “semiconductor tariff” instead, with Trump expected to reveal more details later.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the new levy would be in addition to a host of global tariffs the US imposed earlier this month, then paused for 90 days.

“We need our medicines and we need semiconductors and our electronics to be built in America,” he added.

On Saturday, a US customs notice revealed smartphones, computers and some other electronic devices would be excluded from the 125% tariff on goods entering the country from China.

But Trump chimed in on social media, saying there was no exemption for these products and called such reports about this notice false. Instead, he said that “they are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket'”.

Trump added: “We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations.”

He said he would provide an update on Monday about semiconductor duties.

Everyday devices such as smartphones and laptops rely on semiconductors, which are small and powerful pieces of tech that form the basic building blocks of modern computation.

On Monday, Sony announced that it was increasing the price of its flagship games console, the PlayStation 5, by about 10% in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, citing a “challenging economic environment”, inflation and fluctuating exchange rates. It did not announce price rises in the United States.

The Chinese commerce ministry had called Trump’s exemptions a “small step” by the US, and said that Beijing was “evaluating the impact” of the move.

But the suggestion by Trump administration officials of plans for future levies may dampen hopes of a thaw in the two rivals’ protectionist posture.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was asked on Sunday whether there were any plans for Trump to speak with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

“Right now we don’t have any plans on that,” he said during an appearance on CBS’s Face the Nation.

Trump imposed a tariff amounting to 54% on imports of products from China at the beginning of April, before escalating to the current 145% rate.

In its own tit-for-tat tariffs, China imposed levies of 34% on US goods, before increasing it to 84% and then 125%, which took effect on Saturday.

In announcing its latest tariffs, China’s commerce ministry said last week that it would “fight to the end” if the US “insists on provoking a tariff war or trade war”.

Late on Saturday, while travelling to Miami, Florida, Trump said he would give more details of the exemptions at the start of next week.

The White House has argued that it is using tariffs as a negotiating tactic to extract more favourable trade terms from other countries.

Trump has said his policy will redress unfairness in the global trading system, as well as bring jobs and factories back to the US.

However, his interventions have seen massive fluctuations in the stock market and raised fears of a decrease in global trade that could have a knock-on effect on jobs and individual economies.

US begins probes into pharmaceutical and chip imports, setting stage for tariffs

The Trump administration is kicking off investigations into imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors as part of a bid to impose tariffs on both sectors on national security grounds, notices posted to the Federal Register on Monday showed.

The filings set to be published on Wednesday set a 21-day deadline from that date for the submission of public comment on the issue and indicate the administration intends to pursue the levies under authority granted by Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. Such section 232 probes need to be completed within 270 days after being announced.

The Trump administration has started 232 investigations into imports of copper and lumber, and probes completed in President Donald Trump’s first term formed the basis for tariffs rolled out since his return to the White House in January on steel and aluminum and on the auto industry.

The United States began collecting 10% tariffs on imports on April 5. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are exempt from those duties, but Trump has said they will face separate tariffs.

Trump said on Sunday he would be announcing a tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, adding that there would be flexibility with some companies in the sector.

The United States relies heavily on chips imported from Taiwan, something then-President Joe Biden sought to reverse by granting billions in Chips Act awards to lure chipmakers to expand production in the country.

The investigation announced on Monday will include both pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical ingredients as well as other derivative products, the notice showed.

The drug industry has argued that tariffs could increase the chance of shortages and reduce access for patients. Generic drug manufacturers operate on very thin margins, and any cost increase might prompt some to leave the market since it could be hard for them to absorb or pass along the tariff’s impact.

Tariffs “will only amplify the problems that already exist in the U.S. market for affordable medicines,” John Murphy III, CEO of the Association for Accessible Medicines, the trade group for generic and biosimilar medicine, said in a statement.

“Without substantive regulatory and reimbursement changes to the U.S. market, tariffs will exacerbate shortages that hinder patient access today,” he continued.

Brand name drug manufacturers have a greater ability to absorb tariffs, but some experts expect them to pass along the cost.

Although the pharmaceutical industry escaped the tariffs that Trump imposed during his first term, the president now argues that the United States needs more drug manufacturing so it does not have to rely on other countries for its supply of medicines.

Companies in the industry have lobbied Trump to phase in tariffs on imported pharmaceutical products in hopes of reducing the sting from the charges and to allow time to shift manufacturing.

Large drugmakers have global manufacturing footprints, mainly in the United States, Europe and Asia, and moving more production to the United States involves a major commitment of resources and could take years.

Tariffs will not push drugmakers to boost domestic manufacturing because the investment capacity doesn’t exist at this time, Murphy told CNN recently.

Large tariffs will delay Indian companies’ investment the United States, Kathleen Jaeger, US spokesperson for the Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance. Nearly half of generic prescriptions in the United States come from Indian manufacturers.

“Adding tariffs on America’s affordable medicine partners in India would make it even worse — for patients, the healthcare system and for America’s national security,” she said in a statement.

Tariffs on imported semiconductor chips coming soon, Trump says

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said he would be announcing the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week, adding that there would be flexibility with some companies in the sector. The president’s pledge means that the exclusion of smartphones and computers from his reciprocal tariffs on China likely will be short-lived as Trump looks to reset trade in the semiconductor sector. “We wanted to uncomplicate it from a lot of other companies, because we want to make our chips and semiconductors and other things in our country,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he traveled back to Washington from his estate in West Palm Beach. Trump declined to say whether some products such as smartphones might still end up being exempted, but added: “You have to show a certain flexibility. Nobody should be so rigid.” Earlier in the day, Trump announced a national security trade probe into the semiconductor sector. “We are taking a look at Semiconductors and the WHOLE ELECTRONICS SUPPLY CHAIN in the upcoming National Security Tariff Investigations,” he posted on social media. The White House had announced the exclusions from steep reciprocal tariffs on Friday, creating some hope that the tech industry might escape being ensnared in the escalating conflict between the two nations and that everyday consumer products such as phones and laptops would remain affordable. However, Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, earlier on Sunday made clear that critical technology products from China would face separate new duties along with semiconductors within the next two months. Trump’s back-and-forth on tariffs last week triggered the wildest swings on Wall Street since the COVID pandemic of 2020. The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab is down more than 10% since Trump took office on January 20. Lutnick said Trump would enact “a special focus-type of tariff” on smartphones, computers and other electronics products in a month or two, alongside sectoral tariffs targeting semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. The new duties would fall outside Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, under which levies on Chinese imports climbed to 125% last week, he said. “He’s saying they’re exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, but they’re included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two,” Lutnick said in an interview on ABC’s “This Week,” predicting the levies would bring production of those products to the United States. Beijing increased its own tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% on Friday in response. On Sunday, before Lutnick’s comments, China said it was evaluating the impact of the exclusions for the technology products implemented late on Friday. “The bell on a tiger’s neck can only be untied by the person who tied it,” China’s Ministry of Commerce said. Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who endorsed Trump’s run for president but who has criticized the tariffs, on Sunday called on him to pause the broad and steep reciprocal tariffs on China for three months, as Trump did for most countries last week. If Trump paused Chinese tariffs for 90 days and cut them to 10% temporarily, “he would achieve the same objective in causing U.S. businesses to relocate their supply chains from China without the disruption and risk,” Ackman wrote on X.

‘CHANGES EVERY DAY’

Sven Henrich, founder and lead market strategist for NorthmanTrader, was harshly critical of how the tariff issue was being handled on Sunday. “Sentiment check: The biggest rally of the year would come on the day Lutnick gets fired,” Henrich wrote on X. “I suggest the administration figures out who controls the message, whatever it is, as it changes every day. U.S. business can’t plan or invest with the constant back and forth.” U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, criticized the latest revision to Trump’s tariff plan, which economists have warned could dent economic growth and fuel inflation. “There is no tariff policy – only chaos and corruption,” Warren said on ABC’s “This Week,” speaking before Trump’s latest post on social media. In a notice to shippers, opens new tab late on Friday, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency published a list of tariff codes excluded from the import taxes. It featured 20 product categories, including computers, laptops, disc drives, semiconductor devices, memory chips and flat panel displays. In an interview on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the U.S. has opened an invitation to China to negotiate, but he criticized China’s connection to the lethal fentanyl supply chain and did not include it on a list of seven entities – the United Kingdom, the European Union, India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Israel – with which he said the administration was in talks. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that there were no plans yet for Trump to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping on tariffs, accusing China of creating trade friction by responding with levies of its own. But he expressed hopes for some non-Chinese deals. “My goal is to get meaningful deals before 90 days, and I think we’re going to be there with several countries in the next few weeks,” Greer said. Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he was worried about the United States sliding into recession, or worse, as a result of the tariffs. “Right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,” Dalio said on Sunday. “And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.”
US stock futures rise amid temporary tariff exemptions for tech products

Stock futures rose Sunday after a temporary reprieve from tariffs on electronic imports from China by the Trump administration. Dow futures were up 0.5%, or 212 points. The S&P 500 futures rose 0.75%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite futures gained 1.26%, as of 6:18 pm ET. The Trump administration late Friday exempted electronic imports from reciprocal tariffs; any of those goods manufactured in China — like computers, phones and semiconductors — would still be subject to the 20% tariff Trump previously imposed on Chinese goods. The gains come after stocks have seesawed wildly in recent days, as President Donald Trump has levied massive tariffs on US trading partners, then backed off many of those import taxes. Still, confusion about how permanent or temporary some tariff moves could be has stoked uncertainty among investors and kept stocks, the dollar and even US Treasuries under pressure. Tech giants like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) rely on Chinese manufacturing, and the reciprocal tariffs would have made goods like iPhones and other consumer products more expensive. But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the exemption was “not permanent.” Other administration officials said another slate of tariffs could be imposed after an investigation into the national security effects of semiconductor imports. Trump posted to his Truth Social platform that “NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook’ for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst!” The back-and-forth on tariffs has caused many investors and others to hold off on major decisions until they get clarity. “Investors will not invest in the United States when Donald Trump is playing ‘red light, green light’ with tariffs and saying, ‘Oh, and for my special donors, you get a special exemption,’” said Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren on CNN’s “State of the Union.” Trump has imposed various tariffs in recent weeks, after repeatedly postponing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and automotive imports. A baseline tariff of 10% went into effect on all countries, and higher rates were imposed on roughly 60 countries deemed the “worst offenders,” including tariffs on Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%) and the European Union (20%). Stocks plunged on April 3 after the news, with two consecutive sessions of sell-offs that wiped nearly $6 trillion in market value and continued with another volatile day on Monday, April 7, as the tariff chaos continued.
GM drowning in unsold BrightDrop vans as mounting EV inventory sparks mass layoffs

General Motors’ all-electric CAMI Assembly plant in Ontario is halting production of BrightDrop delivery vans, Unifor said Friday. Unifor is Canada’s largest private sector union, representing 320,000 workers. The company will initiate temporary layoffs starting April 14 and production will stall for three weeks, Mike Van Boekel, plant chair for Unifor Local 88, which represents hourly workers at CAMI, told the Detroit Free Press. Workers will return for two weeks in May for limited production, and then the factory will close for another 20 weeks. During this downtime, GM plans to complete retooling work to prepare the facility for production of the 2026 model year of commercial electric vehicles. CAMI Assembly had run two shifts while producing Chevrolet BrightDrop vehicles. When production resumes in October, Unifor said the plant will operate on a single shift for the foreseeable future — a reduction expected to impact 450 workers. “This is devastating for our members,” Van Boekel told the Detroit Free Press. “We are losing these shifts indefinitely.” About 1,200 Local 88 members work there assembling Chevrolet BrightDrop EVs and constructing battery modules and packs. “This is a crushing blow to hundreds of working families in Ingersoll and the surrounding region who depend on this plant,” Unifor National President Lana Payne said in the statement. “General Motors must do everything in its power to mitigate job loss during this downturn, and all levels of government must step up to support Canadian autoworkers and Canadian-made products.” GM Canada confirmed CAMI is making operational and employment adjustments to balance inventory and align production schedules with current demand. “GM remains committed to the future of BrightDrop, and the CAMI plant and will support employees through the transition,” the company said in a statement emailed to the Free Press. “This adjustment is directly related to responding to market demand and rebalancing inventory. Production of BrightDrop and EV battery assembly will remain at CAMI.”

Many hurdles

GM’s struggles with BrightDrop inventory come less than a year after the company folded the commercial vans into its Chevrolet brand in a bid to boost its performance. GM has tried and failed to gain ground against competitors, including Ford and Rivian, in the electric van space, an effort further hindered by the vehicle’s high price tag. Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, said the opaque trade environment spurred by President Donald Trump’s vacillating tariff announcements hardly aided the company’s U.S. sales projections. “If there’s a tariff with Canada, how do you build any vehicle of volume there to be sold in the U.S.?” Fiorani asked. Tariffs with Canada currently stand at 25%, though the auto industry is still seeking clarity about whether vehicles and parts compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement are included. GM produces BrightDrop 400 and BrightDrop 600 vans at CAMI Assembly, Canada’s — and GM’s — first full-scale all-electric vehicle manufacturing plant, which required massive investment to retool for EV production, including funding support from both governments. As the Free Press first reported, a glut of those slow-selling delivery vans has built up on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border. CAMI produced 3,500 electric Chevrolet BrightDrop delivery vans last year — compared with nearly 200,000 Chevrolet Equinox crossovers the plant produced five years earlier — according to the Automotive News Data & Research Center. Of those, GM sold only 1,529, compared with Ford’s 12,610 E-Transit vehicles and Rivian’s 13,243 EDV. GM reported sales of just 274 Chevrolet BrightDrop vehicles so far this year, up 7% from 256 sold in the first quarter of 2024. Last month, a Free Press photographer captured images of hundreds of vehicles lining a Flint storage lot. Reuters published similar photos from CAMI in Ingersoll, Ontario. CAMI reopened in late 2022 following a retooling period outfitting the facility for electric vehicle production. Production stalled again this year with a scheduled two-week shutdown to “align production schedules and balance inventory,” a GM spokesperson said in a statement. Part of the reason BrightDrop sales are lagging in the U.S. is the comparatively high price tag to nearest competitors. Before incentives, the vehicles cost about $74,000. Ford’s E-Transit van with extended battery range, for example, is $51,600 — more than $20,000 cheaper — even before applying incentives.

Falling far short of projections

GM launched BrightDrop in 2021 as a wholly owned subsidiary with expectations its revenue would top $10 billion by 2030 with low-20% profit margins. BrightDrop CEO Travis Katz said in 2022 that the company expected to be making 50,000 trucks a year starting in 2025 and bring in “a lot of revenue.” Katz left the company in late 2023 without specifying why as GM began reorganizing BrightDrop to function less independently and reduce costs. “Make no mistake — the world is moving rapidly towards electrification. If Canada and the U.S. hit pause now, we may never catch up,” Payne said in the statement. “We risk surrendering our future unless we act decisively to support our own industry.” The economics, and the lack of charging infrastructure, likely made it difficult for the company to find a foothold in the U.S. market, Fiorani said. “It should be easy to convince a business that you can drive this thing. On paper, it’s a good idea. But business owners that are not used to taking risks won’t buy something they don’t understand fully,” he said. “In early 2020, when everybody was delivering things directly to their homes, this was a perfect vehicle for that market.”
Trump’s ongoing 25% auto tariffs expected to cut sales by millions, cost $100 billion

DETROIT — As President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles remain in effect despite a pullback this week on other country-based levies, analysts are expecting massive global implications for the automotive industry due to the policies. They’re expecting to see a drop in vehicle sales in the millions, higher new and used vehicle prices, and increased costs of more than $100 billion for the industry, according to research reports from Wall Street and automotive analysts. “What we’re seeing now is a structural shift, driven by policy, that’s likely to be long-lasting,” Felix Stellmaszek, Boston Consulting Group’s global lead of automotive and mobility, told CNBC. “This may well be the most consequential year for the auto industry in history – not just because of immediate cost pressures, but because it’s forcing fundamental change in how and where the industry builds.” BCG expects tariffs to add $110 billion to $160 billion on an annual run rate basis in costs to the industry, which could impact 20% of U.S. new-vehicle market revenues, increasing production costs for both U.S. and non-U.S. manufacturers. The Center for Automotive Research, a Michigan-based nonprofit think tank, believes costs for automakers in the U.S. alone will increase by $107.7 billion. That includes $41.9 billion for Detroit automakers General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis. Both analyses take into account the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles implemented by Trump on April 3 as well as forthcoming levies of the same amount on automotive parts that are set to begin by May 3.
10-year Treasury yield tops 4.5% after surge this week that’s worrying Wall Street and the White House

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed higher Friday, adding to its steep weekly rise, as dizzying trade moves by President Donald Trump caused investors to dump U.S. assets in favor of other global safe havens. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield advanced 9 basis points to 4.486%. It earlier jumped to its highest level since Feb. 13. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 12 basis points on the day at 3.97%. One basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields move inversely to prices. The 10-year yield this week has risen more than 50 basis points this week after ending last week around 4%, marking one of the biggest spikes on record. The move marks a stark reversal in how investors view Treasurys. Traditionally, investors have turned to U.S. debt as a safe haven during tumultuous times. That doesn’t appear to be the case this week as China and Japan appeared to be selling Treasurys amid the heightened trade tensions, traders speculated. The move higher may have complicated the White House’s approach to trade. Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause on most countries on Wednesday and reduced duties to a universal rate of 10%. The reprieve excluded China, which saw U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports rise to 145%. China struck back against the U.S. on Friday, raising its duties on American goods from 84% to 125%. While some administrations officials have said this reversal was always the plan, the dramatic spike in yields likely pressured them to pause. “Scott Bessent is keeping a close eye on the bond market. He spoke to the White House and I know he is keeping his eyes on it,” the White House said on Friday. Kevin Hassett, director of Trump’s National Economic Council also told CNBC on Thursday “the fact that the bond market was telling us, ‘Hey, it’s probably time to move,’ certainly would have contributed at least a little bit to that thinking.” “But it wasn’t the bond market that made a panic move, because there was a very systematic, well-planned move that was just about to happen that just turned out to be the same time,” Hassett added. Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, added that the bond market “likely struck a nerve with the Trump administration.” “They have repeatedly emphasized their focus on bond yields and even celebrated last week when Treasury bond yields dipped below 4%. Low financing costs appear to be a key pillar of the Trump administration’s overall agenda, so the reversal in market trends, surging Treasury yields, undoubtedly caused significant concern in the White House,” Shah said. Despite the pause, however, rates resumed their upward climb to the high levels that previously sparked concerned for the White House.
US consumer sentiment plummets to second-lowest level on records going back to 1952

Americans are rarely this pessimistic about the economy. Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952. April’s reading was lower than anything seen during the Great Recession. President Donald Trump’s volatile trade war, which threatens higher inflation, has significantly weighed on Americans’ moods these past few months. That malaise worsened leading up to Trump’s announcement last week of sweeping tariffs, according to the survey. “This decline was, like the last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation,” Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, said in a release. “Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year,” she added. The Federal Reserve and Wall Street are watching closely how souring sentiment translates into consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, and whether Americans lose faith that inflation will return to normal in the coming years. Trump on Wednesday paused his massive tariff hike on dozens of countries for 90 days, but kept in place a 10% baseline duty for all imports into the US and separate tariffs on specific products and commodities. The so-called reciprocal tariffs, albeit short lived, were the sharpest increase in US duties ever on data going back 200 years, Fitch Ratings told CNN China, however, wasn’t included in Trump’s tariff reprieve, continuing a contentious tit-for-tat between the world’s two largest economies that stretched into Friday, with Beijing jacking up its retaliatory tariffs on US imports to 125% from 84%. The Michigan survey was fielded between March 25 and April 8, so it doesn’t capture respondents’ reaction to the recently announced tariff delay.

The relationship between sentiment and spending

In economics, surveys are referred to as “soft data” and measures capturing actual economic activity, such as retail sales, are known as “hard data.” The soft data has clearly deteriorated because of Trump’s tariffs: The latest Michigan survey showed that “the share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the year ahead increased for the fifth consecutive month and is now more than double the November 2024 reading and the highest since 2009,” according to a release. Yet, the hard data still looks decent. Employers continue to hire at a brisk pace and shoppers haven’t convincingly reined in their spending just yet, though retail sales have come in weaker than expected recently. “Sometimes the surveys are very negative, but they keep spending,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week at an event near Washington, DC. “People spent right through the pandemic and they spent right through this time of higher inflation.” Still, the hard data could take a turn for the worse. New York Fed President John Williams said Friday at an event in Puerto Rico that he expects economic growth to slow sharply this year, pushing up unemployment, and for inflation to accelerate. “Given the combination of the slowdown in labor force growth due to reduced immigration and the combined effects of uncertainty and tariffs, I now expect real GDP growth will slow considerably from last year’s pace, likely to somewhat below 1%,” he said. Spending by better-off Americans has played a key role in keeping the US economy humming along these past few years, but the recent turbulence on Wall Street, triggered by Trump’s tariffs, is putting that under threat. “Wealthy consumers’ stock market gains kept the economy growing in 2024 despite high prices, but the wealthy won’t feel confident enough to keep spending if this keeps up,” Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in a recent analyst note. Larry Fink, chief executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said Friday that today’s dense fog of uncertainty, triggered by Trump’s tariffs, is reminiscent of the 2008 global financial crisis. “We’ve seen periods like this before when there were large, structural shifts in policy and markets — like the financial crisis, Covid-19 and surging inflation in 2022. We always stayed connected with clients, and some of BlackRock’s biggest leaps in growth followed,” Fink said. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed that sentiment, noting Friday after the bank released its latest quarterly earnings: “The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics), with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars.’”

A growing worry for the Fed

There’s one survey-based measure that matters a whole lot for the Fed: Americans’ perception of prices. It’s critical because they can be self-fulfilling — if people expect inflation to climb and remain elevated in the long run, they adjust their spending accordingly. So far, that measure has been trending in the wrong direction: Expectations for inflation rates in the year ahead surged to 6.7% this month from 5% in March, the highest level since 1981, while expectations for the next five to 10 years climbed to 4.4% from 4.1%. If people do lose faith that inflation will ever get back to normal in the coming years, that would make it extremely difficult for the Fed’s monetary policy to fight inflation. “History teaches that when higher inflation expectations become entrenched, the road back to price stability is longer, the labor market is weaker and the economic scars are deeper,” Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Thursday at an event in Dallas. Inflation expectations these days may be more susceptible than usual to becoming “un-anchored,” since consumers just experienced a period of high inflation, leaving many Americans particularly sensitive to elevated prices.
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