BEIJING, April 16 (Reuters) – China’s first-quarter economic growth outstripped expectations, underpinned by solid consumption and industrial output, but analysts fear momentum could shift sharply lower as U.S. tariffs pose the biggest risk to the Asian powerhouse in decades.
President Donald Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods to eye-watering levels, prompting Beijing to slap retaliatory duties on U.S. imports that have raised the stakes for the world’s two biggest economies and rattled financial markets.
Data on Wednesday showed China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier, unchanged from the fourth quarter, but beat analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a rise of 5.1%.
Growth momentum is expected to cool sharply in the next few quarters, however, as Washington’s tariff shock hits the crucial export engine, heaping pressure on Chinese leaders to roll out more support measures to keep the world’s second-largest economy on an even keel.
Government stimulus boosted consumption and supported investment, said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, calling the 5.4% pace “a very good start.”
“In each of the past two years China had a high-flying first quarter and an underwhelming second quarter,” Xu said, adding that “a forceful and timely policy response” is needed given the additional pressure stemming from U.S. tariffs.
Exports have remained a lone bright spot in China’s economy, with a trillion-dollar trade surplus last year helping to underpin growth even as a prolonged property sector slump and sluggish domestic demand continue to undercut a solid recovery.
That complicates the policy challenge for Beijing as Trump’s relentless focus on China’s vast trade engine chokes off a key growth driver.
China’s Premier Li Qiang said this week the country’s exporters will have to cope with “profound” external changes, and vowed to support more domestic consumption.
Investors in China looked past the better-than-expected data, pushing benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC), opens new tab down nearly 1.0% and denting the yuan , as confidence remained frail amid a darkening growth outlook.