All Posts in "George"

Android Auto update hints at navigation with ‘Glasses’

Google is hinting at some form of glasses integration with Android Auto through a new beta update, but there are some questions. Android Auto 14.2 has just started rolling out in beta and while the update doesn’t seem to deliver any directly user-facing changes, the code behind-the-scenes hints at some potential updates coming in the future. In our usual teardown of the latest update, we found strings that hint at a “default music provider” for Assistant (or, more likely, Gemini) and some continued work on swapping the word “car” for “vehicle,” which looks to extend to the phone screen pop-up that now tells you to “Continue setup on vehicle screen.” The eye-catching strings in this version of Android Auto, though, discuss “Glasses.” Specifically, there’s a new option titled “Glasses” and a string that mentions using “Glasses” with navigation.
  • <string name=”GLASSES_OPTIONS_TITLE”>Glasses</string>
  • <string name=”GLASSES_SETTING_TEXT”>Start navigation to launch Glasses</string>
This language is strange, though. “Start navigation to launch Glasses” seems to imply that “Glasses” is a feature of navigation, where one would rightly assume that this would have something to do with using some sort of glasses with navigation. In a Hindi version of Android Auto 14.2 pulled by Android Authority, the translated version of this string reads “To view navigation on smart glasses, start navigation.” It’s still strange that the English version is so confusingly worded, but this gives us a slightly better idea of what Google has in mind. With Android Auto’s purpose having always been to present information – whether that’s navigation, music, or messages – in a way that’s safer for drivers, smart glasses are certainly a logical next step, especially with Android XR products around the corner. Just this week, Google showed off its Android XR glasses prototype at an event, though there’s still no word on when these products will be hitting the market.
George by — April 11, 2025 By George in Business News
Inflation rate eases to 2.4% in March, lower than expected; core at 4-year low

Consumer price inflation eased more than expected in March as President Donald Trump prepared to launch tariffs against U.S. trading partners, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday. The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in March, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February. Excluding food and energy, so-called core inflation ran at a 2.8% annual rate, having increased 0.1% for the month. That was the lowest rate for core inflation since March 2021. Wall Street had been looking for headline inflation of 2.6% and core at 3%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. Slumping energy prices helped keep inflation tame, as a 6.3% drop in gasoline prices helped drive a 2.4% broader decline in the energy index. Food prices climbed 0.4% on the month. Egg prices rose another 5.9% and were up 60.4% from a year ago. Moreover, shelter prices, among the most stubborn components of inflation, increased just 0.2% in March and were up 4% on a 12-month basis, the smallest gain since November 2021. Used vehicle prices were off 0.7% while new vehicle costs increased just 0.1%, ahead of tariffs that are expected to hit the auto industry hard. Airline fares declined 5.3% in March and motor vehicle insurance dropped 0.8% and prescription drugs fell 2%. Stock market futures indicated a sharply lower open on Wall Street following the release, while Treasury yields also were negative. The report comes a day after Trump’s stunning reversal of parts of his tariff plans as he announced a delay in some of the most aggressive of the duties put in place against dozens of nations. Instead, Trump let stand a 10% blanket levy on all imports announced last week and set a 90-day window during which the White House will negotiate the higher tariffs. While Trump campaigned on bringing down inflation, progress had been slow to start 2025. The president nevertheless has called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Central bank officials have expressed a reluctance to move with so much policy uncertainty in the air, and market pricing indicates the Fed will wait until June before lowering rates again. The nature of the tariffs has led most economists to expect a significant bump in inflation, though that’s less clear now that Trump has opened the negotiation window. “Today’s softer than expected CPI release feels backward looking given the large changes to trade policy seen in recent days,” said Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Going forward the Fed is likely to face a difficult trade-off as tariff driven price increases start to feed through to the inflation data and activity remains soft.” Futures market pricing after the CPI report indicated little change in market expectations for interest rates, with traders pricing in three or four cuts by the end of the year.
George by — April 11, 2025 By George in Business News
The year is 2025, and Instagram is reportedly ‘working on’ an iPad app

Social media platform Instagram has been around since 2010 yet it still doesn’t have a dedicated iPad app. In fact, the last we heard about the network’s interest in tablets was back in 2022, when Insta head Adam Mosseri said there simply weren’t enough iPad users to merit developing a native app. A baffling standpoint, but one that could finally be changing. A current employee of the service spoke anonymously to The Information recently and said that in this, the year 2025, Instagram is at last working on an iPad app. As of now, the only way to use Instagram on an iPad is a zoomed-in version of the company’s iPhone app. Most businesses realized a decade ago that repurposing a phone app isn’t a great user experience since the aspect ratio is so different on a tablet. That’s particularly noticeable when your service is all about photo and video content. The sudden interest in iPad may be part of Instagram’s broader efforts to fight for social media dominance as the popular video platform TikTok faces a potential ban in the US. The Information also reported that Instagram recently hosted an early preview of an upcoming Edits app for video-editing, which would compete with CapCut, a rival service also owned by ByteDance and at risk of falling within the TikTok ban. Mosseri has also spoken about plans to improve Instagram’s capabilities in content search. “You can imagine, whatever you use Instagram for, it’d be great to be able to find ‘that’ more easily,” he said on an episode of the Build Your Tribe podcast. “But also for creators … it should allow content to resurface so that you don’t get all the value in those first 24 or 48 hours.”
George by — April 10, 2025 By George in World News
Retiring? Navigating Social Security and a 401(k) amid tariffs

Well-informed, soon-to-be-retired folks generally know there’s a sweet spot between age 62 and age 70 where Social Security should be claimed to get the greatest benefit. But it varies person to person based on their situation. And deciding is often a best guess.

New tariff-related market volatility may be amping up anxiety for anyone who needs to decide soon.

Those ages — 62 and 70 — are the minimum age at which you can claim Social Security and the age at which the amount stops growing if you put off claiming to get the biggest monthly amount. You can wait longer, but there’s no financial advantage in terms of how much a monthly benefit would be.

Year to year, there’s an 8% difference in the amount you get, with the amount at full retirement age as the basis. Say your full retirement is age 67, which is the case for anyone born in 1960 or later. For each year before that where one claims Social Security, there’s an 8% decrease from that full retirement amount. If you wait, it goes up from that amount by 8% until it tops out at age 70.

The Social Security Administration explains it with a hypothetical $2,000 full retirement monthly benefit. Take it at age 62 and it’s around $1,400. Wait until you’re 70 and it’s a monthly payment of about $2,480. That’s a big difference, though other factors matter, too, like your age and expected lifespan and whether you have a spouse and … well, lots of things, said Stephen Johnson, fiduciary investment adviser and a branch manager in Draper, Utah, at Raymond James Financial.

Johnson said “the issue right now is scaring the heck out of everybody, the tariff situation and the markets dropping 5% a day.” He tells clients not to make retirement decisions based on short-term market moves.

What happens, though, if you want or need to retire and have to claim at least some of your 401(k) or take Social Security right away to afford your life?

Bridge over troubled water

Lots of folks choose what Gal Wettstein, associate director of health and insurance at Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research, calls a “Social Security bridge.”

With the bridge, you take money from your 401(k) so that you can afford to wait until age 70 to get your Social Security, letting that monthly benefit balloon 8% a year. Besides that, Social Security is indexed to inflation, so it has a bit of growth built in for rough inflation years, though the increase lags about a year.

But what might seem like a sound idea in different times may not be so smart when the stock market’s volatile, as it is right now due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

The secret to success in the stock market is to buy low and sell high. Start taking money from your 401(k) now and you’d be doing the opposite, unless you’re well diversified with plenty of bonds, which are up right now and can bolster an otherwise sagging 401(k).

The “what to do depends,” Wettstein told Deseret News. “I would like to think of it as two separate questions, one for people who are already receiving their Social Security benefits and one for those who aren’t.”

Different paths

For those who have already locked in their Social Security, he said, “belt-tightening” is the answer. “What you don’t want to do is sell your assets right when their price has crashed. We don’t know what prices are going to do in the future, but if you think that prices will recover in the nearish future, then you might want to postpone big expenses or things like that where you would have to liquidate assets at a bad price.

“You might rely on Social Security in the meanwhile and put off fixing the roof” or tackling other big expenses, Wettstein said.

For those who haven’t started claiming Social Security, the answer’s a bit different. Those who are still working should probably just keep doing that and avoid liquidating assets, he said.

But the folks who aren’t working and haven’t claimed Social Security, he said, “have a dilemma.”

If they claim Social Security now they might, depending on their age, lose that future 8% for each year shy of 70 they’d hoped to reach, Wettstein said. But they have to “trade that off against the option of losing money right now by selling their 401(k) assets at a bad price.”

For that, he said, there’s no blanket answer. “I think I would talk to a financial advisor” who could examine one’s particular situation. “It depends how old they are, it depends how much their Social Security benefit is, it depends what kind of assets they’re in.”

Those who have bonds won’t be as hard-hit as those whose portfolio contains primarily equities right now. And even those stocks have been differently impacted, which means should they need to sell, an individual should get some expert advice on what to sell, he added.

Because the swings are so big right now, Wettstein said, “I think decisions become much more fraught. It’s important to make them carefully and on an individual level.”

The bridge to preserve a higher Social Security when claimed in the future could make a lot of sense for many people, but it’s a poor time to draw down on assets that are worth less than before.

And there’s another wild card, called the “sequence of returns risk,” Wettstein said. When you start cashing in your 401(k) assets, it matters which comes first: good returns or bad ones. If you’re not using those assets, that doesn’t matter. Once you’re withdrawing, if assets go down early, that’s worse than if they go down late, because you are selling stocks at low prices.

“It all comes back to basic principles, and that is something that has to be top of mind for people right now who are considering leaning on their 401(k),” Wettstein said.

So Wettstein circles back to tightening one’s belt. “As long as it’s only asset prices that are moving and maybe consumer prices with tariffs and things like that, then it is a question of belt tightening and which assets to sell and which not to sell.”

In the great recession around 2008, it wasn’t just a matter of asset prices. The labor market was in bad shape as the market struggled. “I expect that will be the dominant consideration if we do end up in a recession. The availability of jobs, the ability to work, will be one, if not the major consideration of when to claim,” he said. “People who can’t find jobs will have strong reason to claim even if it isn’t the financially optimal thing to do; they’ll just have no choice.”

Not the primary concern

For most people, said Johnson, whether to delay taking the 401(k) to let it recover or to delay Social Security to let it grow isn’t where decisions are being made.

There’s a mathematical answer to when to take Social Security, but it’s filled with variations and some risk. Someone who takes it at 67 but lives a long time might have been better off waiting, but there are also people who will choose to take it as soon as possible “because I have no guarantee I live to be 82.”

Sophisticated software programs can run scenarios and return a suggestion: 46% of the time you’ll outlive your funds or 95% of the time you don’t run out of money, or tons of answers in between.

“I’ve been doing this for 40 years. I’ve seen a lot of down markets in my lifetime but it always recovers,” Johnson said. “You don’t want to make a decision based on what the market’s doing for five days or 10 days.”

Look closely at your investments

Part of making good choices hinges on knowledge — as in knowing what is in your 401(k), Johnson said. “How much do you currently have in stocks, bonds and cash by category.”

The vast, vast majority of people don’t have all their money in stocks, he and Wettstein agree, particularly in a professionally managed 401(k).

Having all your eggs in the stock basket would be a terrible move for someone who is close to retirement.

Johnson suggests people have a year or two’s worth of monthly income set aside to meet needs so they can ride out whatever happens without deciding to sacrifice money that’s in a 401(k) or their Social Security. “So that we know that if the market stocks crash, you don’t have to sell anything for a year or two while it’s down, because you’ve already got it under the mattress in cash or bonds anyway.”

He also notes that retiring and dying are not the same thing. You can retire at 65 and live another 20 years if you have normal life expectancy. Those who are diversified don’t have all their money in stocks. And they can afford to take a long view of the market’s ups and downs.

“We’ve already protected your income, so to speak, by not being in stocks with some of that money and you just let stocks do their thing,” Johnson said.

And a disclaimer: Both men told Deseret News they’re talking in general terms, not offering specific financial advice in this story.

George by — April 10, 2025 By George in World News
Investors react as stocks jump on Trump’s tariff pause

Wall Street surged after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause in tariffs unveiled last week that roiled markets and erased trillions of dollars from global stock markets.

The policy changes also include a lowered overall tariff of 10% during that 90-day period, and an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, from the 104% that went into effect overnight.

TREASURIES: U.S. Treasury benchmark yields pared gains after the tariff announcement, following a government auction of $39 billion 10-year notes that suggested good demand. The auction came amid a bond market rout that was sparked by the U.S. tariffs and prompted forced selling and a dash for cash.
CURRENCIES: The U.S. dollar — which had been lower earlier in the day — strengthened against the yen and other currencies.
COMMENTS:

TOM BRUCE, MACRO INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, TANGLEWOOD WEALTH MANAGEMENT, HOUSTON

“It has been great news for the market… to see U.S. bonds sell off has been very strange, amid a broader emphasis on taking risk off in portfolios. Seeing stress build in the credit market was really worrying. So today was a great relief.
“But we’re still not clear what it all means yet, for the EU, for instance. And an increase in tariffs on China is not a good thing, especially for retailers.
“It’s beginning to look like this thing has been all about China. Certainly, the big tariffs package just didn’t make sense to economists like me. It felt like they were creating maximum leverage by creating maximum chaos — classic game theory. So we needed a reprieve from that, and got one.”

TOM GRAFF, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, FACET, PHOENIX, MARYLAND

“It sounds like Trump is pivoting to a focus on China, and going easier on other countries. I still think a 10% universal tariff will have negative effects, but if this 90-day pause becomes more long term, it takes the worst-case scenario off the table.”

TIM HOLLAND, CFA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, ORION, OMAHA, NEBRASKA

“Investors will anxiously be waiting to see how other nations respond. We also think the fact that U.S. investor sentiment was so bearish heading into today’s announcement by the president is additional fuel for the move higher.”

RON PICCININI, DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT RESEARCH, AMPLIFY, SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA

“Today’s move is a classic example of why not to panic, and why having a disciplined approach is so crucial.”
“Our allocations are remaining unchanged, as we viewed the current episode as a bit of a replay of the events of December 2018, where the markets were down 18.5% by December 24, amid fears related of trade tariffs, government spending, high equity valuations, and interest levels considered too high by some. Markets made back all the losses quickly (about a month and a half)… we stay the course.”

GINA BOLVIN, PRESIDENT OF BOLVIN WEALTH MANAGEMENT GROUP IN BOSTON

“This is the pivotal moment we’ve been waiting for. The immediate market reaction has been overwhelmingly positive, as investors interpret this as a step toward much-needed clarity. The timing couldn’t be better, coinciding with the start of earnings season, which kicks off with the big banks this Friday.
“This pause may provide companies with a clearer backdrop for their guidance, offering some relief to a market hungry for direction.
“However, uncertainty looms over what happens after the 90-day period, leaving investors to grapple with potential volatility ahead.”

UTO SHINOHARA, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, MESIROW CURRENCY MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO

“Amid the recent doom-and-gloom sentiment, investors were eager for any signs of optimism… Risk-sensitive currencies saw the strongest rebound, led by the Australian dollar, while traditional safe-havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc came under pressure.”

AMARJIT SAHOTA, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, KLARITY FX, SAN FRANCISCO

“The questions are really going to come: why did we see this reprieve today and is it even a good idea? Personally, I don’t think it’s a good idea: 90-day pause just creates more uncertainty.”
“But why today? I think that the talking point on nearly all desks this morning was what on earth is happening with the U.S. 10-year yield and why were we seeing this huge rally in the yields and people are offloading bonds and who in particular is offloading those bonds? … Speculation has been that it was real money sellers and also foreign interest. That may have been enough to spook the administration into offering a reprieve.”

STUART THOMAS, FOUNDING PRINCIPAL, PRECIDIAN INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK

“This is a positive signal for the markets and validates Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool and highlights his willingness to deal with our trading partners in good faith.”

CAROL SCHLEIF, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, BMO PRIVATE WEALTH, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA

“Markets had been looking for a reason to rally for a few days. Markets can only sustain extreme conditions for so long before exhaustion sets in – rather like a toddler and a tantrum.”
“The 90-day suspension does allow nice breathing room to allow negotiation to settle in and market valuations have clearly been reset. Yet, the uncertainty for companies remains.”

STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT

“This was definitely a surprise, considering that the administration consistently said they would not back off the tariffs and that they were non-negotiable… This is a very understandable relief rally.”
“We now have to wonder whether the tariffs resume in 90 days or not. That will impede companies’ ability to plan for the near future and to offer guidance regarding the current quarter. Uncertainty is reduced, but not fully dissipated.”

JAY HATFIELD, CEO, INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL ADVISORS, NEW YORK

“This is going to come as a huge relief to the markets. This is what should have been done initially… We think that the selloff was overdone anyway and nobody was taking into consideration that oil prices are lower and that there are positive things happening too.”
“We are now set up for a good rally going into the earnings season… this rally makes sense now. There will be some residual concerns around the broader economy and recession, but that will get clearer with more data.”

ART HOGAN, INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT, BOSTON

“The day that felt really nuts was two days ago, when someone on Twitter posted what the White House called a fake news report that Donald Trump was considering doing what now he has just done – halt tariffs for 90 days. That triggered $2 trillion in buying in just eight minutes. Now we have the reality, and it’s no surprise we’re seeing another giant move upward.”

ALEX MORRIS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, F/M INVESTMENTS, WASHINGTON, D.C.

“This is a giant meltup, because the announcement was the walkback the market needed to see. They hit the pause button and the market rejoiced. But of course, there is no promise that we’ll manage to solve anything in 90 days. We’re certainly not out of the woods, and we may see inflation data spike.
“What convinced the president to act was the bond market, which had begun sending signals that this was going to get steadily worse. The market moves have been an absolute whiplash… Stocks are trading on tweets and sentiment and the fear of silly policies being enacted. But there is plenty of liquidity and the market structure has held up very well.”

MARK HACKETT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, NATIONWIDE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP, PHILADELPHIA

“It’s definitely good news because it shows that the negotiations are in good enough shape that they think that they’ve accomplished what they needed to by this initial conversation.”
“But I want to put a pretty big caveat out there because 8% rallies in 20 minutes in the Nasdaq aren’t a heck of a lot healthier than 8% declines … so I’m careful about giving an all-clear.”

CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR THE US,

NATIXIS IN NEW YORK

“We had assumed that some form of capitulation would be forthcoming – the financial carnage, let alone the economic pain that has yet to be felt, and it was inconceivable that the administration to endure for much longer. The decoupling with China looks to be real with no sign of concessions from either side. Will the EU similarly stand firm? The fractures appear to be deep.”
“We may revert to the Trump 1.0 playbook of foreign countries agreeing to purchase more specific goods from the U.S. This could improve the trade deficit marginally, but will not fundamentally change the trading relationship like the administration desires.”

JOHN CANAVAN, LEAD ANALYST, OXFORD ECONOMICS, NEW YORK

“The way President Trump worded this makes it not entirely clear if we actually have a pause or if we just have lower reciprocal tariffs at 10%… the president is backing off some of the worst of his tariff threats here, and I think that’s clearly going to be a net positive for risk assets.”
“One thing that it doesn’t do is eliminate uncertainty… because the level of tariffs just seems to change from day to day.”
“This only adds to the broader uncertainty as we go forward. But at least for the time being, while we can’t be certain where the tariff situation is going to wind up, we can at least see that the president is showing an increased willingness to back down from the worst of his tariff threats and allow for some calm to enter the markets.”
(This story has been corrected to fix the date to December 24, not December 4, in paragraph 12)
George by — April 10, 2025 By George in Equities
Stock market posts third biggest gain in post-WWII history on Trump’s tariff about-face

Wednesday’s jaw-dropping stock-market rally on President Donald Trump’s surprising tariff reversal is one for the history books.

The S&P 500 skyrocketed 9.52% in a kneejerk reaction to Trump’s announcement to put a 90-day pause on some of the lofty ‘reciprocal’ tariffs. The one-day gain ranks as the third biggest since World War II for the main stock market benchmark, according to FactSet.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2,962.86 points, or 7.87% and posted its biggest advance since March 2020.

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 12.16%, notching its largest one-day jump since January 2001 and second-best day ever.

“This is the pivotal moment we’ve been waiting for,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “The immediate market reaction has been overwhelmingly positive, as investors interpret this as a step toward much-needed clarity.”

The market was a coiled spring after a brutal four-day stretch that briefly pushed the S&P 500 into bear-market territory. Over the course of the previous four trading sessions, the S&P 500 suffered a 12% loss, a decline not seen since the pandemic. The Dow lost more than 4,500 points during the four-day stretch, while the Nasdaq was down more than 13%.

While stocks managed to recoup much of the losses, investors are not completely out of the woods as Trump vows to reorient global trade. The president said more than 75 countries contacted U.S. officials to negotiate after he unveiled his new tariffs last week.

“It’s still too early to signal an all clear,” said Dave Sekera, Morningstar’s chief U.S. market strategist. “Trade negotiations have yet to start and once they do, there will be positive and negative headlines as each party positions itself to extract the maximum amount of concessions possible.”
George by — April 10, 2025 By George in Equities
Wild swings in Treasurys have investors worried something is about to ‘blow up’ in markets

The unusual surge in long-term Treasury yields has rattled investors in the aftermath of President Trump’s tariff-fueled “Liberation Day” — and the catalysts behind the turmoil could have a ripple effect across the entire financial ecosystem. As of Wednesday’s close, the 10-year yield (^TNX) jumped another 14 basis points to trade around 4.40%, even as Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for a swath of countries and also raised tariffs on China. That represents a massive 53 basis point swing from Monday’s low of 3.87% — and the biggest three-day jump since December 2001. Following the latest tariff news, the 30-year yield (^TYX) posted more modest gains but still rose 8 basis points after it logged its biggest move to the upside since March 2020 earlier in the week. After the market close, the 30-year yield traded at 4.79%. Yields and bonds are inversely correlated, meaning higher yields equal falling bond prices. “The Stock and Bond Vigilantes signal that the Trump administration may be playing with liquid nitro,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said in a research note published on Tuesday. “Something may be about to blow up in the capital markets as a result of the stress created by the administration’s trade war. If so, then the S&P 500 will fall into a bear market for sure.” On Wednesday, President Trump admitted he’s had his eye on the recent surge in yields, telling reporters on the White House Lawn, “The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it’s beautiful.” “Last night people were getting a little queasy,” he added. “The big move wasn’t what I did today. The big move was what I did on Liberation Day.” Notably, the recent surge has landed the 10-year yield back to where it was at the end of February.

‘Something has broken’

The bond market serves as a “cash collateral” of sorts to investors who can then borrow money and bet on riskier assets like stocks. It’s also viewed as a safe haven during times of uncertainty, which has been the word du jour as Wall Street remains on edge that shifting trade dynamics could induce a self-inflicted recession. That’s why the moves in yields have been confusing. As tariff and recession headlines rattle through markets, investors should (in theory) be buying more bonds to protect themselves against surging inflation and deteriorating growth. Quite dramatically, that hasn’t been the case. So what’s going on? “Something has broken tonight in the bond market,” market veteran Jim Bianco said late Tuesday in a post on X. “We are seeing a disorderly liquidation. If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind.” The basis trade, a highly levered trading strategy most often used by hedge funds, occurs when traders attempt to profit from a small price gap between Treasury futures and actual government bonds. The basic idea is to buy the bonds at a cheaper price and “short” the more expensive futures contract with the hope the two prices will eventually merge. Think of it this way: Let’s say you buy a concert ticket for $100 today but your friend agrees to pay you $110 for the ticket five days before the show. As the initial buyer, you know the two prices will eventually merge the closer you get to the concert, and can then lock in that small profit of $10. The problem? Hedge funds use a lot of borrowed money to do this at scale — sometimes up to 100 times in leveraged bets — which means if the price gap worsens, those small moves can create significant losses. Torsten Sløk, partner and chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said Tuesday that “exogenous shocks” like tariffs or an economic recession could “rapidly” unwind those highly leveraged positions and disrupt current market conditions. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance is owned by Apollo Global Management.) At the same time, if the supply of Treasurys expands due to a growing budget deficit or the Fed reducing its balance sheet through quantitative tightening, that could also depress Treasury prices, “hurting the long leg of the trade.” But the basis trade unwind is not the only dire theory on Wall Street. There’s also a concern foreign investors might start selling their US Treasurys. “With all of this back-and-forth with China, there’s a possibility that they stop buying and boycott our debt,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told Yahoo Finance’s Josh Schafer in a phone interview on Tuesday. “Japan has the largest stock of Treasurys, but China has been a big buyer. What happens if that source of foreign demand shrinks or dries up completely?” In that case, Sosnick said, the US Treasury would have to issue at higher rates in order to make up for the loss: “The supply is not going down anytime soon, right? But you’re going to have to do something about demand.” And if markets are having a difficult time pricing low-risk assets like Treasurys, Sosnick added, “they’re certainly not going to have an easy time pricing higher-risk assets, like equities or crypto or anything of that nature.”
George by — April 10, 2025 By George in Market Watch
Why Is Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Rocketing Higher Today

What Happened?

Shares of leading designer of graphics chips Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) jumped 15.7% in the afternoon session after markets rallied sharply on news that President Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause. Reciprocal tariffs were also dropped to 10% for most countries, sparking renewed optimism amid ongoing trade talks. The major stock indices rose as investors, growing impatient of seemingly irrational tariff actions, welcomed the pause as a sign of a more measured path forward. However, Trump was quick to note that China was not part of the pause. Instead, he prepared to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% after China announced retaliatory tariffs on US imports. This tough stance on China stood in sharp contrast to the softer tone toward others. In a week marked by growing uncertainty, this news eased some of the pressure. The questions remain whether we are out of the woods and can sustain the rally or not. The shares closed the day at $114.24, up 18.1% from previous close. Is now the time to buy Nvidia? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.

What The Market Is Telling Us

Nvidia’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 33 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The previous big move we wrote about was 5 days ago when the stock dropped 7.8% on the news that China imposed a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports amid escalating trade war tensions. This was especially rough for the US chipmakers because a big chunk of their business leans on demand out of China. The new tariffs not only threaten to erode profit margins but also risk reducing market share. Adding to the uncertainty, the Trump administration signaled the possibility of further regulatory action against the sector. Although semiconductor firms were notably excluded from the broad tariffs unveiled on April 2, 2025, their exclusion raised concerns that targeted restrictions could still be forthcoming. Nvidia is down 17.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $113.90 per share, it is trading 23.8% below its 52-week high of $149.43 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Nvidia’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $17,326. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, it should be obvious by now that generative AI is going to have a huge impact on how large corporations do business. We prefer a lesser-known (but still profitable) semiconductor stock benefiting from the rise of AI.
George by — April 10, 2025 By George in Market Watch
Nasdaq rallies most since 2001, notches second-best day ever as Apple soars 15%

The Nasdaq Composite climbed more than 12% for its second best day ever as markets clawed back after a rocky few trading sessions spurred by President Donald Trump’s wide sweeping tariffs. The tech-heavy index posted its best session since January 2001, when it rallied more than 14%. Stocks skyrocketed across the board Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for some countries. It followed multiple days of selling after the president’s aggressive tariff plans rattled global markets. Trump, however, said he would raise tariffs on China to 125%. Apple soared more than 15% for its best day since January 1998. The iPhone maker is coming off its worst four-day trading stretch since 2000, which resulted in Microsoft unseating it as the most valuable company and a $774 billion drop in market value. Apple recovered its status Wednesday. The stock is down nearly 21% year to date. Tesla and Nvidia popped more than 18% and 22%, respectively, while Meta Platforms jumped nearly 15%. Amazon rallied 12%, while Microsoft and and Alphabet rose about 10% each. Tesla posted its biggest one-day gain since May 2013 and its second-best day ever. Semiconductor stocks that have struggled on fears that tariffs could stifle demand for many consumer products and slow the economy also jumped. While the sector has been excluded from the recent tariffs, levies could come in the future. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF tracking the sector soared more than 17% for its best day ever. Advanced Micro Devices rocketed about 24%, while Intel jumped about 19%. On Semiconductor, Broadcom and Apple suppliers Qorvo and Skyworks Solutions were up more than 18% each.
George by — April 10, 2025 By George in Business News
Inside Trump’s tariff retreat: How fears of a bond market catastrophe convinced Trump to hit the pause button

President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to reverse course on his sweeping tariff plan by announcing a three-month pause revealed his threshold for political pain: One week. “They were getting yippy,” Trump said, explaining the rising criticism raining down on the White House over the last week. “They were getting a little bit yippy, a little afraid.” Even for a president famous for his policy bobs and weaves, Wednesday’s announcement he was pausing his long-touted reciprocal tariffs for three months amounted to a stunning reversal of a plan he had appeared only a day earlier to be fully behind and came as his own trade representative was testifying on Capitol Hill to the benefits of the tariffs, seemingly catching him unaware of the pause. Days of pressure from fellow Republicans, business executives and even his close friends hadn’t appeared to move Trump, who insisted last week: “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.” By Wednesday, however, it had become evident the campaign to convince Trump to change course would not let up. It had also become plain after a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets — usually a safe corner for investors — that the economic ramifications of the president’s strategy were potentially catastrophic and worse than his advisers had previously predicted. The growing alarm inside the Treasury Department over developments in the bond market was a central factor in Trump’s decision to hit pause on his “reciprocal” tariff regime, according to three people familiar with the matter. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised those concerns directly to Trump Wednesday in a meeting that preceded the pause announcement, underscoring concerns shared by White House economic officials who had briefed Trump on the accelerating selloff in the US Treasury market earlier in the day. Calls to top White House advisors from key business community allies also increasingly focused on the troubling developments in the bond market as they made the case for Trump to pull back. Trump had not yet made the decision to pause the dramatic new tariff rates when he was posting on social media about the stock market Wednesday morning, two of the people said. But he acknowledged later in the afternoon that he’d been watching the bond market turmoil closely. “The bond market is very tricky, I was watching it,” Trump told reporters. “The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.” Sitting in the Oval Office to tap out his announcement, Trump was joined by two advisers who had become dueling faces of the tariff plan: Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “We didn’t have access to lawyers or – it was just wrote up. We wrote it up from our hearts, right? It was written from the heart, and I think it was well written too, but it was written from the heart,” Trump said afterward, describing a process driven more by impulse than mapped-out strategy. Even as Trump calmed the markets – for now, at least – he also raised new questions by suggesting he would consider exempting some US companies from tariffs, saying he would make any such decisions “instinctively.”

Whirlwind Wednesday

It was another whirlwind Wednesday at the White House, with advisers scrambling to keep pace with the president’s decisions. He sought to take a victory lap after one of the most humbling retreats of his presidency, eager to take credit for the stock market gains Wednesday – without mentioning the record-setting, trillion-dollar losses over the last week. “It’s the biggest increase in the history of the stock market. That’s pretty good,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “If you keep going, you’re going to be back to where it was four weeks ago.” If Trump was planning early Wednesday to pause his new tariffs after days of market turmoil, he did not reveal his intentions widely. Many White House officials heard of his decision at the same time the world learned, via post on Truth Social, that the new tariffs were on pause. Even his own top trade official seemed only vaguely aware the change was possible by the time Trump announced the reversal on social media. “It looks like your boss just pulled out the rug from under you and paused the tariffs,” Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford of Nevada told US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during a hearing that was underway on Capitol Hill when Trump made his announcement. Greer had offered zero indication to that point the major shift was coming. Bessent and other officials insisted the decision to pause the new tariffs on all nations except China was not a backdown; instead, they framed the move as all part of Trump’s master plan to bring nations to the negotiating table. “It took great courage, great courage for him to stay the course until this moment,” said Bessent, who flew to Palm Beach last weekend for a lengthy discussion with Trump on the endgame of the tariffs. Even as his advisers danced around it, though, the president acknowledged that the rising criticism, deepening angst and mounting losses in the financial markets contributed to his abrupt decision on Wednesday afternoon to impose a three-month pause on many of the tariffs. “I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line,” Trump told reporters.

Alarm over bond selloff

The administration’s economic team spent Wednesday morning intensely focused on the bond selloff that had intensified a day earlier and accelerated aggressively overnight, driving yields higher and, in effect, demonstrating the exact opposite of what would normally happen during such an unstable and volatile moment in the global economy. Historically, Treasurys rally in moments of stock market selloffs as investors rush to shift assets to a global safehaven, the longstanding status due to the safety and liquidity provided by the US market. Watching the inverse play out, then accelerate after unexpectedly weak demand at the first Treasury Department auction to take place since Trump’s announced his tariff regime, led to growing alarm even as Bessent dismissed it as “uncomfortable, but normal” in a Wednesday morning television interview. But for Bessent, whose finance career was deeply intertwined with the bond market and who has been fixated on driving down the 10-year yields in his cabinet post, the alarm relayed by senior Treasury officials was understood and reflected in the later conversation with Trump. The president, who is a close monitor of his own coverage on television, had seen even some of his close allies issue dire warnings about the prospects of a recession as a result of the tariffs. He was watching Fox Business channel on Wednesday morning when JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said a recession was “a likely outcome” of an escalating trade war resulting from Trump’s tariff policies. “Markets aren’t always right, but sometimes they are right,” Dimon told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo.

Executives light up White House phones

Inside the White House, telephone calls had been coming quickly from business executives, Republicans and other allies of the President urging him to reconsider his tariffs, but they received little indication a pause was in the works. Executives had been lighting up the phone lines of chief of staff Susie Wiles, Vice President JD Vance, and Treasury secretary Scott Bessent to make the case to Trump directly as trade hawks continued to promote Trump’s tariffs-at-all-costs approach on television as the market continued to sink. Wiles, these sources said, had been particularly effective in convincing Trump that the market rout was costing considerable political capital that he would need for future agenda items, with lawmakers fielding increasingly angry constituent calls as the market continued sinking. Bessent, whose conversation with Trump in Florida over the weekend focused on zeroing in on the overall goal of the tariffs, also appeared to assume more of a role in the public messaging, talking frequently about the dozens of countries now jockeying for trade deals. “This was driven by the President’s strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his strategy all along,” Bessent said on Wednesday. Trump, however, acknowledged he’d been keeping a close eye on markets, calling their performance “glum” over the last few days. A week after making a tariff announcement that upended the global trading system, the president stood outside the White House in front of three colorful race cars and reflected on what led to his retreat. He sought to take credit for a problem largely of his own making, saying his credibility was not eroded by the whiplash. “You have to have flexibility,” Trump said. “I think in financial markets, because they change, look how much you change today.”
George by — April 10, 2025 By George in Business News
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