Data out Monday showed activity in the manufacturing sector slowed in February while costs increased and employment contracted, as President Donald Trump’s tariff policies weighed on the sector.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI registered a reading of 50.3 in February, down from January’s 50.9 reading and below the 50.7 economists had expected. Readings above 50 for this index indicate an expansion in activity, while readings below 50 indicate a contraction.

Meanwhile, the prices paid index surged to a reading of 62.4, up from 54.9 the month prior and its highest level since July 2022, reflecting company costs continuing to increase. The employment index fell into contraction with a reading of 47.6 in February, down from 50.3 in January.

All three major stock indexes hit their lows of the day following the release, with the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sliding the furthest, down about 1% before paring back losses.

“Demand eased, production stabilized, and destaffing continued as panelists’ companies experience the first operational shock of the new administration’s tariff policy,” Institute for Supply Management Chair Timothy Fiore wrote in the release. “Prices growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing new order placement backlogs, supplier delivery stoppages and manufacturing inventory impacts.”

Fiore explained in an interview with Yahoo Finance that the surge in the prices paid index was largely due to Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

“The whole story here is really around the tariff issue,” Fiore said, further explaining that the increases in prices lead to lower new orders from businesses and also could impact hiring plans. If Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are enacted, Fiore said he expects the situation to worsen, with prices continuing to increase and manufacturing activity further weakening.

“If you stay on the path that we’re headed on, I think it’s going to be tough, a tough route [for the US economy],” Fiore said.

ISM’s prices paid index has closely tracked the monthly prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI), per Fiore. This month’s large increase in the prices paid index likely points to an increase in prices for the two inflation measures — CPI and PPI — in February, Fiore said.

Capital Economics North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote in a note to clients on Monday that the ISM data “supports our view that there will be a goods-driven resurgence in core inflation in the second half of the year.”

“The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index and the negative tone of the report will add to fears that the economy has taken a sudden turn for the worse amid the barrage of weaker activity data in recent weeks,” Ryan wrote.

Canada, Mexico and China have vowed to retaliate after tariffs on goods entering the US from their countries came into effect on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and 20% tariffs against China.

Stock markets in the US, UK and Asia dipped following the introduction of the taxes amid fears of trade war widening.

Analysts have warned tariffs could push up prices for US households and could also have a knock on effect on consumers across the world, including the UK.

Trump threatened to impose the tariffs, which are a tax added to a product when it enters a country – on Canada, Mexico and China in response to what claims is the unacceptable flow of illegal drugs and illegal immigrants into the US.

But Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country was responsible for less than 1% of fentanyl entering the US and would retaliate with 25% tariffs on $150bn worth of US goods.

China swiftly announced its own counter measures, which include 10-15% tariffs on some US agricultural goods, including wheat, corn, beef and soybeans. Mexico is expected to announce its response later.

The three major stock market indexes in the US sank following the news, while the FTSE 100 index of the UK’s biggest publicly-listed companies opened sharply lower on Tuesday and stock markets in Asia were also down.

Andrew Wilson, from the International Chamber of Commerce, said: “What we’re seeing is the biggest effective increase in US tariffs since the 1940s – with severe economic risks attached to that.”

“The initial market moves are entirely reflective that we’re now entering into a very risky scenario for global trade and for the global economy,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme

He said Yale University had predicted these measures could cost US households in the region of $2,000 in this year alone.

Ella Hoxha, head of fixed income at Newton Investment Management, told the BBC: “In terms of consumers, you’re more likely looking at, certainly over the short term, increases in prices as companies pass some of those prices onto the consumer.”

Chris Torrens, vice president of the British Chamber of Commerce in China, added: “It’s a huge challenge for British business because of the historical links that the UK and the US have. [We are] Seeing what looks like the dismantling of a transatlantic alliance between the US and Europe.

“But, there is a real sense of hope for a stronger UK-China relationship.”

US employers probably added jobs at a moderate pace in February at a time of federal government layoffs and a consumer spending slowdown.

Payrolls rose by 160,000 in February, a slight improvement from the 143,000 increase a month earlier yet softer than during the final months of 2024, according to the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4%.

Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will provide an update for Federal Reserve officials about momentum in the labor market that’s been the key support — at least until January — of household spending and the economy. However, rapid policy changes by the Trump administration — including the push by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency to shrink the federal government and cut spending — risk elevating uncertainty about the outlook.

Listen to the Podcast: Will Elon Musk Trigger a US Government Shutdown?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to speak at a monetary policy forum Friday afternoon. Policymakers next meet March 18-19 and they’re expected to hold interest rates steady as they gauge the labor market and inflation trends as well as recent government policy shifts.

Other officials speaking in the coming week include Fed governors Adriana Kugler and Christopher Waller, as well as New York Fed President John Williams. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also speaking before the Economic Club of New York.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he’s confident US inflation will slow over the course of the year as two polls signaled that President Donald Trump risks putting off Americans worried about the economy and consumer-price growth with the broad flurry of measures during his first weeks in office.

Recent surveys already show consumers are shedding optimism about business conditions and the job market over the next several months. Figures from the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global will help show whether manufacturers and service providers are seeing orders and business activity cool as managers assess a growing threat of tariffs.

Trump’s administration is planning to enact 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on March 4, the same day the president addresses a joint session of Congress and may drop other policy bombshells.

The February jobs report may also include the initial effects of a federal hiring freeze, though thousands of public-service layoffs occurred too late in the month to have a material impact this time around. And while federal jobs account for a small share of overall payrolls, funding cutbacks risk bleeding into the private sector that supports — and is supported by — government-funded programs.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Softening sentiment, a contraction in spending, downward revisions to first-quarter GDP growth expectations – data in the past week have stirred growth fears in the market, challenging the narrative of the US economy’s ‘exceptionalism.’ Data and events in the coming week could turn these flickers of concern into a real fire.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou & Chris G. Collins, economists. For preview, click here

In Canada, government officials are expected to continue their push to avert Trump’s planned levies on most Canadian goods.

Among economic data, the international trade report for January may show a continued surge in exports to the US as the loonie weakened and American importers looked to get ahead of potential tariffs. Employment data for February may similarly continue a trend seen the previous month, in which manufacturing jobs boomed, likely due to tariff front-running.

Elsewhere, Chinese manufacturing PMIs, inflation readings from Australia to Switzerland to Mexico and rate cuts at the European Central Bank and in Turkey will be in focus.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

The week kicks off with the latest inflation reading for the euro area, which — following mixed signals from Germany and France — likely slowed to 2.6%. While still clearly above the ECB’s 2% target, the deceleration will be a relief for central bank officials, who on Thursday in Frankfurt are set to deliver another 25 basis point rate cut — the sixth such move since June.

What happens next is less clear, with policymakers led by President Christine Lagarde increasingly torn on how far they should go. New economic forecasts published alongside the rate decision could provide some clarity, though the threat of US tariffs clouds the outlook.

The Danish central bank typically mirrors any ECB move, and so is expected to lower rates as well on Thursday.

Earlier that day, Turkey will probably also cut borrowing costs — encouraged by new inflation data due Monday likely to show a slowdown to 40% in February — while Ukraine is seen hiking rates for a third straight meeting.

In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be among ratesetters questioned by the Treasury committee on their decision to lower rates by a quarter point in February.

Beyond central banks, South African data on Tuesday is expected to show gross domestic product expanded 0.9% in the fourth quarter, against a 0.3% contraction in the prior three months, in part due to a rebound in the agricultural industry and strong growth in the retail sector.

Whether it’s a dozen eggs or a new car, Americans are having a hard time adjusting to current prices.

Nearly all Americans report experiencing some form of “sticker shock,” regardless of income, according to a recent report by Wells Fargo.

In fact, 90% of adults said they are still surprised by the cost of some goods, such as a bottle of water, a tank of gas, dinner out or concert tickets, and said that the actual costs are between 55% and 200% higher than what they expected depending on the item.

Consumers fear inflation will pick up