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Armstrong World Industries (NYSE:AWI) Could Be A Buy For Its Upcoming Dividend

It looks like Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (NYSE:AWI) is about to go ex-dividend in the next 3 days. The ex-dividend date is usually set to be one business day before the record date, which is the cut-off date on which you must be present on the company’s books as a shareholder in order to receive the dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves a full business day. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company’s books on the record date. In other words, investors can purchase Armstrong World Industries’ shares before the 6th of March in order to be eligible for the dividend, which will be paid on the 20th of March.

The company’s next dividend payment will be US$0.308 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$1.23 to shareholders. Based on the last year’s worth of payments, Armstrong World Industries stock has a trailing yield of around 0.8% on the current share price of US$153.66. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Armstrong World Industries’s dividend is reliable and sustainable. As a result, readers should always check whether Armstrong World Industries has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut.

Dividends are typically paid out of company income, so if a company pays out more than it earned, its dividend is usually at a higher risk of being cut. Armstrong World Industries is paying out just 19% of its profit after tax, which is comfortably low and leaves plenty of breathing room in the case of adverse events. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. It distributed 28% of its free cash flow as dividends, a comfortable payout level for most companies.

It’s encouraging to see that the dividend is covered by both profit and cash flow. This generally suggests the dividend is sustainable, as long as earnings don’t drop precipitously.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Stocks in companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often make the best dividend prospects, as it is easier to lift the dividend when earnings are rising. Investors love dividends, so if earnings fall and the dividend is reduced, expect a stock to be sold off heavily at the same time. This is why it’s a relief to see Armstrong World Industries earnings per share are up 4.2% per annum over the last five years. Recent growth has not been impressive. Yet there are several ways to grow the dividend, and one of them is simply that the company may choose to pay out more of its earnings as dividends.

Another key way to measure a company’s dividend prospects is by measuring its historical rate of dividend growth. In the past six years, Armstrong World Industries has increased its dividend at approximately 9.9% a year on average. It’s encouraging to see the company lifting dividends while earnings are growing, suggesting at least some corporate interest in rewarding shareholders.

To Sum It Up

From a dividend perspective, should investors buy or avoid Armstrong World Industries? Earnings per share have been growing moderately, and Armstrong World Industries is paying out less than half its earnings and cash flow as dividends, which is an attractive combination as it suggests the company is investing in growth. It might be nice to see earnings growing faster, but Armstrong World Industries is being conservative with its dividend payouts and could still perform reasonably over the long run. Overall we think this is an attractive combination and worthy of further research.

George by — March 02, 2025 By George in Equities
Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of $1.25

The board of Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $1.25 per share on the 15th of April. This payment means that the dividend yield will be 2.3%, which is around the industry average.

Packaging Corporation of America’s Payment Could Potentially Have Solid Earnings Coverage

We like a dividend to be consistent over the long term, so checking whether it is sustainable is important. Packaging Corporation of America was earning enough to cover the previous dividend, but it was paying out quite a large proportion of its free cash flows. The company is clearly earning enough to pay this type of dividend, but it is definitely focused on returning cash to shareholders, rather than growing the business.

The next year is set to see EPS grow by 39.5%. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 44%, which is in the range that makes us comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.

historic-dividend
NYSE:PKG Historic Dividend March 2nd 2025

Packaging Corporation of America Has A Solid Track Record

The company has a sustained record of paying dividends with very little fluctuation. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $1.60 in 2015 to the most recent total annual payment of $5.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% a year over that time. We can see that payments have shown some very nice upward momentum without faltering, which provides some reassurance that future payments will also be reliable.

Packaging Corporation of America May Find It Hard To Grow The Dividend

Investors could be attracted to the stock based on the quality of its payment history. However, Packaging Corporation of America has only grown its earnings per share at 4.0% per annum over the past five years. Growth of 4.0% per annum is not particularly high, which might explain why the company is paying out a higher proportion of earnings. This could mean the dividend doesn’t have the growth potential we look for going into the future.

In Summary

Overall, we don’t think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn’t cut this year. While Packaging Corporation of America is earning enough to cover the dividend, we are generally unimpressed with its future prospects. Overall, we don’t think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

It’s important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. As an example, we’ve identified 1 warning sign for Packaging Corporation of America that you should be aware of before investing. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

George by — March 02, 2025 By George in Equities
Should You Really Be Investing in the Stock Market Right Now? History Offers a Clear Answer.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.59%) has surged by nearly 67% since it began its bull market in October 2022, as of this writing, bolstered by strong consumer spending and consistent corporate earnings growth. But some investors are worried about a shift in the market. Inflation unexpectedly rose earlier this year, and bearish sentiment among investors is the highest it’s been in the past 12 months, according to weekly surveys from the American Association of Individual Investors. In fact, only around 19% of U.S. investors are feeling optimistic about the market’s six-month future. So what should you do with your investments right now? Is it time to get out of the market? Or is it safe to continue investing? Here’s what history suggests.

Timing the market is riskier than it may seem

To be clear, it’s impossible to predict the market’s future based on past performance. Nobody knows exactly where stock prices will be in a few months or a year, and despite growing concern about the market, we don’t know whether we’ll even face a downturn in 2025. For that reason, trying to time the market is a risky move. It may make sense in theory to dump your stocks before a major market move. But because we don’t know when that move will happen, you risk selling at the wrong time. Stocks may continue to surge right after you sell, and you’ll have missed out on those earnings. While it can seem counterintuitive, continuing to invest consistently is one of the safest things you can do right now.

History has good news for consistent investors

Historically, the market has managed to recover from every crash and recession it’s ever faced. Even more importantly, those who benefited the most were the investors who continued buying throughout all the market’s highs and lows. For example, say that you were investing in an S&P 500 index fund in January 2008. The market was just starting its descent into the Great Recession, a bear market that would last over a year. That may have seemed like the worst possible time to be an investor, and to be sure, the short term would have been rough. But if you’d simply held your investment for the next 10 years, you’d have earned returns of more than 82%.
^SPX Chart
^SPX data by YCharts On the other hand, say that you avoided the market entirely throughout the Great Recession, waiting until January 2014 to begin buying again. At that point, the S&P 500 had just reached a new all-time high, and it may have seemed like a much safer time to invest.
^SPX Chart
^SPX data by YCharts However, from 2014 to 2018, you’d only have earned returns of around 45%. While you would have experienced much less turbulence by waiting to invest, it also would have slashed your potential earnings.

Bad news is an investor’s best friend

Market downturns are rough, and even seasoned investors are often unnerved by them. But one of the best ways to build long-term wealth is to continue investing no matter what happens in the market. This is an approach even Warren Buffett swears by. In 2008, he wrote an opinion piece for The New York Times to encourage nervous investors amid the Great Recession. In it, he explained that market slumps can be one of the best times to buy, as you can snag higher-priced stocks at a discount. “[I]n the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank,” he wrote. “In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.” If the market takes a turn for the worse, it can be tempting to pull your money out and avoid investing. But if you have the cash to spare, buying more during a market slump can get you more bang for your buck — and set you up for serious earnings when stocks inevitably recover. Market volatility is normal, but it can also be tough to stomach. By shifting your focus toward ways to take advantage of a downturn, it can be a little easier to avoid letting nerves take over.
George by — March 02, 2025 By George in Market Watch
Markets wrap rough month driven by ‘Extreme Fear’

US stocks seesawed Friday, but all three major indexes closed the month in the red — a sign of increasing unease in markets. Volatility gripped markets as traders closed out a dismal February that wiped out some gains. “Extreme fear” was the sentiment driving markets on Friday and for the fourth day in a row, according to CNN’s Fear and Greed Index. Stocks initially rose Friday morning, buoyed by cooling inflation data that provided relief for investors. Yet markets moved into the red midday following a very public heated exchange at the White House between President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky that stoked uncertainty around geopolitical stability. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, popped to its highest level this year. In afternoon trading, markets recouped losses, and the major indexes surged higher to close out the day. The Dow ended the day up 601 points, or 1.39%, while the broader S&P 500 rose 1.59% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.63%. Yet US markets sputtered in February and slid this week. The benchmark S&P 500 slid 1% this week and is down 1.4% this month. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was down 3.5% this week and 4% this month, its worth month since April 2024. “We believe there is valid concern in the markets about the amount of money being spent on Artificial Intelligence datacenters and capex, considering news from China AI startup DeepSeek in late January,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, in a Friday note. Tentarelli said uncertainty about AI spending coupled with concerns about economic growth has led many of the stocks leading the Nasdaq to underperform. The Nasdaq is heavily weighted toward tech and was driven higher last year by companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA) and Palantir (PLTR). Yet those surging tech stocks have slowed down this month. Tesla shares are down about 26% over the past month. The reasons for the Nasdaq’s decline range from inflation risk to decelerating growth to its stocks having tough outlooks compared to other assets, said Ted Mortonson, managing director at Baird, in an email. “Concerns about potential economic growth deceleration may be fostering increased risk aversion, potentially leading investors to shift away from the more volatile Nasdaq index in favor of more stable investment options,” said David Smith, a professor of economics at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School. Nvidia posted strong quarterly earnings on Wednesday, though its stock’s high valuation raises the question of how much more room there is to run. Still, the broader market remains near its all-time high, reached just last week. And the bumpiness in the market isn’t all that unusual for this time of year. “The stock market’s recent declines are simply garden variety volatility, largely because February is historically a volatile month, and because we saw significant gains throughout January,” said Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer at Brave Eagle Wealth Management. Slowdown in consumer spending flashes warning signal While new inflation data matched expectations, other economic data released Friday revealed cracks in the economy that contributed to weary investor sentiment: Consumer spending pulled back far more than economists expected in January and posted the biggest monthly decline since February 2021. “Investors will continue to focus on the uncertain growth trajectory as real spending unexpectedly fell in January from weaker consumer demand,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL financial, in a note. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s estimates for economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 were also revised on Friday to project a decline of 1.5%, rather than growth of 2.3%. “This huge drop in the estimate reflects the very weak data that has been coming out on retail sales, net imports, inventories and new home sales,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, in an email. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said he is cautious about the market due to high valuations. At UBS, strategists advised preparing for volatility ahead, though considered the bull market intact. “We think the bull market is intact driven by healthy economic and profit growth, supportive Fed policy and AI spending/adoption,” said David Lefkowitz, head of US Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a Friday note. “But we have also cautioned that volatility would likely be higher this year due to policy uncertainty and trade frictions. Therefore, we have been highlighting that short-term hedges may be worth considering,” said Lefkowitz.
George by — March 02, 2025 By George in Market Watch
Anti-DOGE protests at Tesla stores target Elon Musk’s bottom line

BOSTON (AP) — Demonstrators gathered outside Tesla stores across the U.S. Saturday to protest the automaker’s billionaire CEO, Elon Musk, and his push to slash government spending on behalf of President Donald Trump. The demonstrations are part of a growing backlash in North America and Europe to Musk’s disruptive role in Washington. Critics of Trump and Musk hope to discourage and stigmatize purchases of Tesla, the electric car company that is the world’s most valuable automaker. Liberal groups for weeks have organized anti-Tesla protests in hopes of galvanizing opposition to Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and energizing Democrats still demoralized by Trump’s November victory. “We can get back at Elon,” said Nathan Phillips, a 58-year-old ecologist from Newton, Massachusetts, who was protesting in Boston on Saturday. “We can impose direct economic damage on Tesla by showing up at showrooms everywhere and boycotting Tesla and telling everyone else to get out, sell your stocks, sell your Teslas.” Musk is taking direction from Trump to slash federal spending and sharply reduce the workforce, arguing that Trump’s victory gave the president and him a mandate to restructure the U.S. government. DOGE officials have swiftly gained access to sensitive databases, directed thousands of federal job cuts, canceled contracts and shut down sections of the government, including the U.S. Agency for International Development. Musk’s critics say his actions defy Congress’s power to control the U.S. budget and present a host of ways for him to enrich himself. Musk leads several other companies, notably SpaceX, which conducts launches for NASA and the intelligence community, and the social media platform X. “Protests will not deter President Trump and Elon Musk from delivering on the promise to establish DOGE and make our federal government more efficient and more accountable to the hardworking American taxpayers across the country,” said White House spokesperson Harrison Fields. Tesla did not respond to an emailed request for comment. More than 50 demonstrations were listed Saturday on the website Tesla Takedown, with more planned later in March from coast to coast in the United States along with England, Spain and Portugal. News reports showed demonstrations in recent days in U.S. cities including Tucson, Arizona; St. Louis; New York City; Dayton, Ohio; Charlotte; and Palo Alto, California. Some Tesla owners have also reported their vehicles vandalized with spray painted swastikas amid what Jewish groups and observers fear is a rise in antisemitism. Federal prosecutors charged a woman in connection with a string of vandalism against a Colorado Tesla dealership, which included Molotov cocktails being thrown at vehicles and the words “Nazi cars” spray painted on the building. Saturday’s demonstration in Boston had a festive atmosphere, with a brass band playing music as protesters carried signs and chanted. Several of the signs mocked Musk and DOGE, with one reading: “Stop Elon and his despicable Muskrats.” “This government led by Trump and Musk, it’s gone completely off the rails and we are here to stop that,” said Carina Campovasso, a retired federal worker. “And I hope they listen.” About 300 demonstrators protested at a Tesla dealership in New York City on Saturday. Police said nine people were taken into custody but did not elaborate on the charges they faced. Tesla’s share price has fallen by nearly a third since Trump took office, though it’s still higher than it was a year ago. Musk’s current net worth is an estimated $359 billion, according to Forbes, which calculated his 2024 net worth as $195 billion.
George by — March 02, 2025 By George in Business News
Should You Buy Nvidia Stock After Its Blowout Q4 Results?

Investors no longer have to speculate about how Nvidia (NVDA 3.97%) performed in the fourth quarter of 2024. Now we know. And the news was once again positive. Nvidia reported its Q4 results after the market closed on Wednesday. It should come as no shock that the GPU maker handily beat Wall Street estimates. But should you buy Nvidia stock after its blowout Q4 results?

How good was Nvidia’s Q4 performance?

Nvidia reported Q4 revenue of $39.33 billion, up 78% year over year and 12% higher than revenue generated in the previous quarter. This result topped the company’s previous guidance of $37.5 billion. It also exceeded the average estimate of $38.05 billion among analysts surveyed by LSEG. The company posted Q4 adjusted earnings of $0.89 per share, a year-over-year increase of 71% and a 10% jump from the third quarter of 2024. The consensus analysts’ estimate was for adjusted earnings of $0.84 per share. Nvidia’s big story was its data center business. Data center revenue soared 93% year over year and 16% sequentially to a record $35.6 billion. This made up nearly 91% of the company’s total revenue. There were a couple of clouds in Nvidia’s silver linings, though. One negative with the Q4 results is that the company’s growth is slowing somewhat. Nvidia’s revenue skyrocketed 94% year over year in Q3 and 122% in Q2. The company’s gross margins also slipped 3% year over year in Q4 to 73%.

Looking ahead

With all of this good news, why did Nvidia’s share price slide a little after its Q4 update? Investors focus more on the future than on the past. Nvidia’s outlook, while positive, wasn’t overly impressive. The company’s guidance was for revenue in the first quarter of its fiscal 2026 of $43 billion, plus or minus 2%. This figure is below the average estimate of $43.37 billion among the analysts surveyed by LSEG. It also reflects further deterioration in Nvidia’s growth rate. Nvidia projects an adjusted gross margin in Q1 of 71%, plus or minus 50 basis points. This continues the downward trend of the company’s gross margin in recent quarters. Investors would normally be ecstatic about a company delivering 65% revenue growth and gross margins of over 70%. However, when a stock trades at almost 31 times forward earnings as Nvidia does, expectations are understandably higher than for many other companies.  
George by — March 02, 2025 By George in Business News
Record goods trade gap signals companies “front loading” ahead of Trump tariffs

The U.S. trade deficit for goods widened sharply in January, a result of a record surge of products imported into the country, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

Why it matters: For yet another month, manufacturers and businesses raced to bring goods into the country to get ahead of potential tariffs implemented by President Trump.

  • The data, which are preliminary, confirms anecdotes of “front loading” from port officials and retailers since Trump won the election.
  • The strong import data helped flip a closely-watched first quarter estimate of GDP negative, stoking further fears about the health of the economy. Imports act as a drag on GDP.

By the numbers: The trade gap in goods was a record $153 billion — widening by 26% in January alone as imports surged well ahead of exports, the Commerce Department said.

  • That shatters the most recent goods trade gap record of $122 billion set the previous month.
  • Exports of goods for January were $172 billion, $3.3 billion more than December. Goods imports, meanwhile, were $325 billion, an increase of $35 billion from December.

The intrigue: For context, there are more goods imports relative to that of exports now than in March 2022, when importers were aiming to get ahead of any disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

  • This time the hurdle is tariffs, which Trump telegraphed would be ramping up in the early days of his administration.
  • A 10% tariff on goods from China went into effect in early February with an additional 10% levy set to take effect next week. The White House says it will also move forward with 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico.
  • The Commerce Department’s preliminary release does not break out the data by country.

The bottom line: The record trade deficit “adds to the building growth concerns for the economy in early 2025,” Nationwide economist Ben Ayers wrote in a client note.

George by — March 01, 2025 By George in World News
Weekly jobless claims jump to 242,000, more than expected in latest sign of economic softening

Initial filings for unemployment benefits hit their highest level of the year last week in another potential signs of weakness in the labor market.

Jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 22 totaled a seasonally adjusted 242,000, up 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level and higher than the Dow Jones estimate for 225,000, according to a Labor Department report Thursday.

The level of claims matched the highest since early October 2024 and comes amid questions over broader economic growth and worrying signs in recent consumer sentiment surveys.

President Donald Trump has been taking aggressive measures to reduce the federal workforce through Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency advisory board. The efforts so far have resulted in tens of thousands of jobs cuts and are expected to continue.

In Washington, D.C., new claims totaled 2,047, an increase of 421, or 26%, according to numbers not adjusted for seasonal factors. That is the largest number for the city since March 25, 2023, according to Labor Department records, and is consistent with a surge that began in early January.

However, the claims trend does not appear to be spreading to the surrounding areas. Virginia and Maryland both saw small declines on the week. California, which also has a large population of federal government workers, saw a drop as well.

“This report showed a healthy gain, but not the first ripples of what likely will be a major wave of unemployment claims, both from layoffs in the federal workforce and at companies such as Starbucks and Southwest,” wrote Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

Continuing claims, which run a week behind, showed a small decrease and stood at 1.86 million. However, the four-week moving average of claims, which helps smooth out weekly volatility, rose sharply to 224,000, an increase of 8,500.

There were notable increases in the New England area.

In Massachusetts, filings totaled 9,179, an increase of 3,731 from a week ago, while claims in Rhode Island more than tripled to 2,964.

In other economic news Thursday, orders for long-lasting goods such as aircraft, appliances and computers unexpectedly jumped 3.1% in January, a potential sign of attempts to make big-ticket purchases ahead of an acceleration in tariffs.

The Census Bureau reported that the increase in so-called durable goods followed a 1.8% decline in December that was revised from the previous estimate of a 2.2% decrease. The Dow Jones forecast was for a 2% increase.

However, excluding transportation, which leaped 9.8% higher, orders essentially were flat. Orders rose 3.5% when excluding defense.

Trump announced Thursday on social media that 25% duties on Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4, the same day that China will face an additional 10% charge.

Also, the Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% annualized pace in the fourth quarter of 2024, in a second estimate for gross domestic product that was unchanged from the initial figure.

Price indexes within the report that the Federal Reserve follows closely showed slight upward revisions from the previous estimates. The personal consumption expenditures price index for the quarter indicated a 2.4% gain, or 2.7% on core when excluding food and energy.

George by — March 01, 2025 By George in World News
S&P 500 surges more than 1% Friday to end stormy February as investors look past Trump-Zelenskyy clash

Stocks managed to rise Friday to wrap up a volatile week and a losing month for the major averages. Friday’s trading session saw a brief pullback after President Donald Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy clashed in the Oval Office, which raised concerns about heightened geopolitical risks. The S&P 500 added 1.59% on Friday to close at 5,954.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 601.41 points, or 1.39%, closing at 43,840.91. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.63% to settle at 18,847.28. Stocks rallied sharply into Friday’s close. Part of that could have been related to index rebalancing and other technical-buying sources. There was a heavy imbalance to the buy side of market-on-close orders at the New York Stock Exchange. Month to date, the Nasdaq led the way down, sliding nearly 4% in February due largely to a 3.5% drop this week. This was the tech-heavy index’s worst month since April 2024. The S&P 500 declined roughly 1% for the week and 1.4% in February. Meanwhile, the Dow has managed to outperform, rising about 1% in the week. Month to date, however, the 30-stock index has dropped 1.6%. The major benchmarks turned negative for a short period on Friday after Trump, along with Vice President JD Vance, argued with Zelenskyy during an extraordinary moment in front of the media at the White House. The leaders met Friday regarding a possible Ukraine mineral rights deal for the U.S., which investors hoped would be a precursor to eventually bringing about an end to the war with Russia. “You either make a deal or we’re out,” said Trump at one point to Zelenskyy. “You’re gambling with World War III.” Trump then posted on Truth Social that Zelenskyy “is not ready for peace if America is involved.” “He can come back when he is ready for peace,” added the president, who promised a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war during his campaign. The Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of fear on Wall Street, spiked as the leaders traded barbs. The index jumped to 22.40 at one point, its highest level since Jan. 27. “I’m disturbed by what I just saw,” said investor Jim Lebenthal of Cerity Partners on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “If the policies in foreign affairs are now to empower Russia and Vladimir Putin, I don’t think that’s good for the stock market. I don’t think that’s good for the global economy. I find it hard to make a case otherwise,” Lebenthal added. Larry Tentarelli, founder and CEO of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, added that “This is still a very news-driven market and any hints of escalation, or no resolution with Russia [and] Ukraine, should be expected to add to volatility, in an already volatile week.” “From a markets perspectives, I would expect these higher volatility newsbytes at any time, until resolved,” Tentarelli said. Investors have also been rattled in recent days by Trump’s promise of tariffs, along with recent economic reports flashing warning signs. A decline of 8.5% in megacap tech titan Nvidia in Thursday’s session following its quarterly earnings report threw more cold water on investor sentiment. On Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now measure, which tracks economic data in real time and adjusts continuously, adjusted to forecast first-quarter output falling 1.5%.wa
George by — March 01, 2025 By George in Market Watch
Bitcoin Slide From All-Time High Hits 28% as Crypto Rout Worsens

A week-long rout in Bitcoin deepened amid the recent broader retreat from risky assets in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and crypto sector turmoil, marking a dramatic reality check for one of the most popular Trump trades. The original cryptocurrency tumbled as much as 7.2% to $78,226 at one point Friday, bringing its decline from the all-time high reached less than six weeks ago to 28%. Bitcoin later pared the loss, and ended up trading little changed on the day. Bitcoin fell around 18% in February, the biggest monthly drop since June 2022. “Some large players just said at the end of the day, ‘you know what, I’m just going to throw in the towel,” said Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of crypto fund Split Capital. “I think that’s what we saw this past week. There was definitely a lot of selling more than usual, so it’s hard to pinpoint one specific exchange or place.” This week’s drop in Bitcoin has taken it to technical levels that many traders watch for signs that the selloff may have gone too far, inspiring dip buyers to step in and at least pause the declines. Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-day moving average, a closely watched indicator of the long-term trend, for the first time since October. Its 14-day relative strength index, a gauge of price momentum, this week fell below a level indicating the asset is considered oversold for the first time since September. Trump said Thursday that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would come into force from March 4, undermining hopes he might reverse course after a previous delay. He also said Chinese imports would face a further 10% levy, prompting officials in Beijing to promise “all necessary measures” in response. The focus on trade tensions had led to a broad risk-off decline across markets on Friday, pushing down almost all Asian stock markets and fueling declines in Europe. But cryptocurrencies — which are deeply exposed to shifts in risk appetite — were among the worst hit.

Trump Trade Woes

The selloff underscores a swift change of fortunes for what was previously one of the most popular Trump trades in global markets: buying Bitcoin on the expectation that the president’s crypto-friendly approach would lead to a broad rally. That worked for a while. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $109,241 on Jan. 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration. But cryptocurrencies have recently come under pressure amid worries that Trump’s pugilistic approach to global trade could lead to broad pain. “Given the macro environment, it’s not surprising to see we are where we are,” said Stefan von Haenisch, director of over-the-counter trading in Asia Pacific at crypto custody firm Bitgo Inc. Traders are still waiting for Trump to come up with concrete steps for the sector including a Bitcoin stockpile, he said. What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say… “The real panic may be ahead of us still. Bitcoin always has another 70%+ crash in its future, by construction. $72k-$74k would appear to be the technical crunch zone that might trigger the next crypto winter.“ — Mark Cudmore, MLIV Executive Editor Read more here. Investors are now being forced to consider quite how far the world’s biggest cryptocurrency can fall. There is support for the coin around $70,000, said Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at crypto platform YouHodler, pointing to technical analysis. But he said investors shouldn’t assume the rout in Bitcoin will get that bad. “We will only see this level if negative sentiment dominates the equity markets,“ said Lienkha. Bearish sentiment has also hit spot US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Investors have pulled a record $3.3 billion from US spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in February, poised for the biggest monthly exodus since they debuted, as investors sought refuge in safer assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns. Trump has already made a few changes that have pleased crypto bulls, including putting crypto advocates in key positions. The Securities and Exchange Commission, which embarked on a yearslong crackdown under former Chair Gary Gensler, has also closed investigations into several crypto outfits in recent weeks. Trump has said he wants to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet and the Bitcoin superpower of the world.”
George by — March 01, 2025 By George in Market Watch
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