Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunges nearly 10%, mainland’s China CSI 300 slumps about 5% on trade war worries

Asia-Pacific markets extended their sell-off Monday as fears over a global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled a risk-off mood. Hong Kong markets led losses in the region, with the Hang Seng Index declining 8.95%. Meanwhile, mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 5.41%. Over in Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 lost 5.92% to hit an 18-month low while the broader Topix index plummeted 5.94%. Earlier in the day, trading in Japanese futures was suspended due the market hitting circuit breakers. In South Korea, the Kospi index pared some losses and was last down 4.11%, while the small-cap Kosdaq declined 3.41%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 also pared some losses to 3.78%. The benchmark slid into correction territory with an 11% decline since its last high in February, in its previous session. U.S. futures dropped as investors’ hopes of the Trump administration having successful negotiations with countries to lower the rates were dashed. Meanwhile, U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday stateside. Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74, their lowest since April 2021. Trump’s top economic officials dismissed any fears of inflation and recession, declaring that tariffs would persist whatever markets may do. Stocks in the U.S. sold off sharply last Friday, after China retaliated with fresh tariffs on U.S. goods, sparking fears of a global trade war that could lead to a recession in the world’s largest economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,231.07 points, or 5.5%, to 38,314.86 on Friday, the biggest decline since June 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 nosedived 5.97% to 5,074.08, its biggest decline since March 2020. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, which captures many tech companies that sell to China and manufacture there as well, dropped 5.8%, to 15,587.79. This takes the index down by 22% from its December record, representing a bear market in Wall Street terminology.
Dow futures fall 900 points as Trump tariff market collapse worsens: Live updates

U.S. stock futures dropped on Sunday evening as the White House remained defiant even after a two-day historic stock market rout that followed President Donald Trump’s rollout of shockingly high tariff rates on most key U.S. trading partners. Dow Jones Industrial average futures fell 979 points, or 2.5% Sunday evening, pointing to another brutal session ahead on Monday. S&P 500 futures shed 2.9%. Nasdaq-100 futures lost 3.9% as investors continued to shed their one-time tech winners to raise cash. This follows a market wipeout to end last week:
  • The Dow posted back-to-back losses of more than 1,500 points for the first time ever, including a 2,231-point shellacking on Friday.
  • The S&P 500 dropped 6% on Friday for its worst performance since the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020. The benchmark lost 10% in two days, pushing it to more than 17% below its February record, perilously close to a 20% bear market.
  • The Nasdaq Composite entered a bear market Friday — down 22% from its record — after losses on Thursday and Friday of nearly 6% apiece.
Investors did not receive the news over the weekend they were wishing for that the Trump administration was having successful negotiations with countries to lower the rates, or at the very least, was considering delaying the set of so-called reciprocal tariffs due to take effect April 9. The initial unilateral 10% tariff went into effect Saturday. Instead the president and his key advisors played down the sell-off:
  • Trump said Sunday evening on the market sell-off: “I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
  • Trump added, “We have a trillion-dollar trade deficit with China, hundreds of billions of dollars a year we lose with China. And unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.”
  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS News that the tariffs would not be postponed. “The tariffs are coming… They are definitely going to stay in place for days and weeks.”
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted to NBC News that more than 50 countries have approached the administration for negotiations, but cautioned “they’ve been bad actors for a long time, and it’s not the kind of thing you can negotiate away in days or weeks.”
Investors were surprised first by the magnitude of certain rates applied to trading partners that appeared to be based on a formula without a valid rationale based on established economic theory. They were rattled further when China on Friday decided to retaliate first with a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports, instead of negotiating. “Trump’s Liberation Day last Wednesday triggered annihilation days on Thursday and Friday, with the stock market vigilantes giving a costly thumbs-down to Trump’s reign of tariffs,” wrote Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, in a note to clients Sunday. While the administration said at least 50 nations had reached out to start negotiations, Canada and the European Union were planning to follow China’s lead and readying retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. Vietnam has offered already to cut tariffs on the U.S. to zero, according to Trump, but they appeared to be the exception so far. Fears grew on Wall Street that the sell-off would feed on itself with hedge funds forced to sell down equities and other risky assets to raise cash and meet margin calls. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, closed Friday at the 45 level, an extreme level seen mostly only during bear markets. “Margin calls are going out as we speak,” said Chris Rupkey chief economist at FWDBONDS. “For a third straight day investors in U.S. equity markets have turned (a) huge thumbs down on the White House Liberation Day tariffs which have rocked Wall Street.” The price of bitcoin, which usually trades like another big tech stock but had bucked the broader market meltdown last week, fell under the $80,000 Sunday in another sign of de-risking on Wall Street. Global markets tumbled as they opened staring with Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged 8%.
Boost Your Money Know-how During Financial Capability Month

It comes as no surprise that managing finances and money can be stressful. Like most types of stress, financial stress can impact your sleep, physical and emotional health, relationships, performance at work and family life.

April is National Financial Capability Month, highlighting the importance of having a basic understanding of how to handle money matters like paying bills, managing debt and saving money. This knowledge is essential when it comes to reducing financial stress and making informed financial decisions for you and your family.

Improve your financial well-being

The MHealthy website includes information, programs and university and national resources to help support your financial well-being. Learn about:

  • Help available if you have a need
  • Understanding financial basics
  • Managing your money
  • Managing your debt
  • Understanding and improving your credit score
  • Setting financial goals

Gain awareness around your personal finances

Register for the new Money Matters virtual gameboard and boost your knowledge around money and personal finances – one square at a time.  Over 28 days, journey along the path completing quick, daily tasks designed to test your knowledge, raise your awareness and help you reflect on your current financial habits. A new task is unlocked daily with topics ranging from budgeting and saving money to managing debt and improving credit scores.

Available to active, benefits-eligible faculty and staff and their spouse/other qualified adult enrolled in a U-M health plan. Sign up today on the MHealthy Portal.

Find solutions to difficult financial situations

In challenging times, it can be difficult to know where to turn for help. The MHealthy Resource Coach Program helps U-M and Michigan Medicine employees find practical solutions to difficult situations. Assistance comes in the form of case management services, connections to community and local resources, and in some cases, financial support for employees experiencing a financial crisis or other personal hardship.

Check in on your retirement

TIAA and Fidelity, U-M’s trusted administrators of its Retirement Savings Plans, are available to meet with you virtually, by phone or in person. Their specialists are trained to help you create a financial plan and take steps toward your goals. And, during National Financial Capability Month, both are also offering several web-exclusive events, both live and by-demand.

Access resources on the MHealthy Portal

The MHealthy Portal, available to benefits-eligible faculty and staff and their health plan enrolled spouse/OQA, includes online courses and self-guided programs focused on financial well-being, including:

  • Path to Wellness: Financial Well-being
  • Course: Creating a Cash Flow Plan
  • Course: Path to Financial Well-being
Microsoft AI chief Suleyman sees advantage in building models ‘3 or 6 months behind’

Microsoft owns lots of Nvidia graphics processing units, but it isn’t using them to develop state-of-the-art artificial intelligence models. There are good reasons for that position, Mustafa Suleyman, the company’s CEO of AI, told CNBC’s Steve Kovach in an interview on Friday. Waiting to build models that are “three or six months behind” offers several advantages, including lower costs and the ability to concentrate on specific use cases, Suleyman said. It’s “cheaper to give a specific answer once you’ve waited for the first three or six months for the frontier to go first. We call that off-frontier,” he said. “That’s actually our strategy, is to really play a very tight second, given the capital-intensiveness of these models.” Suleyman made a name for himself as a co-founder of DeepMind, the AI lab that Google bought in 2014, reportedly for $400 million to $650 million. Suleyman arrived at Microsoft last year alongside other employees of the startup Inflection, where he had been CEO. More than ever, Microsoft counts on relationships with other companies to grow. It gets AI models from San Francisco startup OpenAI and supplemental computing power from newly public CoreWeave in New Jersey. Microsoft has repeatedly enriched Bing, Windows and other products with OpenAI’s latest systems for writing human-like language and generating images. Microsoft’s Copilot will gain “memory” to retain key facts about people who repeatedly use the assistant, Suleyman said Friday at an event in Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, headquarters to commemorate the company’s 50th birthday. That feature came first to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which has 500 million weekly users. Through ChatGPT, people can access top-flight large language models such as the o1 reasoning model that takes time before spitting out an answer. OpenAI introduced that capability in September — only weeks later did Microsoft bring a similar capability called Think Deeper to Copilot. Microsoft occasionally releases open-source small-language models that can run on PCs. They don’t require powerful server GPUs, making them different from OpenAI’s o1. OpenAI and Microsoft have held a tight relationship shortly after the startup launched its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, effectively kicking off the generative AI race. In total, Microsoft has invested $13.75 billion in the startup, but more recently, fissures in the relationship between the two companies have begun to show. Microsoft added OpenAI to its list of competitors in July 2024, and OpenAI in January announced that it was working with rival cloud provider Oracle on the $500 billion Stargate project. That came after years of OpenAI exclusively relying on Microsoft’s Azure cloud. Despite OpenAI partnering with Oracle, Microsoft in a blog post announced that the startup had “recently made a new, large Azure commitment.” “Look, it’s absolutely mission-critical that long-term, we are able to do AI self-sufficiently at Microsoft,” Suleyman said. “At the same time, I think about these things over five and 10 year periods. You know, until 2030 at least, we are deeply partnered with OpenAI, who have [had an] enormously successful relationship for us. Microsoft is focused on building its own AI internally, but the company is not pushing itself to build the most cutting-edge models, Suleyman said. “We have an incredibly strong AI team, huge amounts of compute, and it’s very important to us that, you know, maybe we don’t develop the absolute frontier, the best model in the world first,” he said. “That’s very, very expensive to do and unnecessary to cause that duplication.”
This Ultra-High Dividend Stock Is Yielding 7%: Should You Buy It With $1,000 Right Now?

Stocks are falling. Financial TV is rolling out the “Markets in Turmoil!” headlines. Uncertainty abounds over how much President Trump’s tariffs will impact the U.S. economy. Both the broader Nasdaq Composite and the big-tech heavy Nasdaq-100 indexes are now down by more than 12% from their early January peaks as investors take their money out of higher-risk growth stocks, further fueling people’s fears.

Not all stocks are falling, though. In times of uncertainty, investors tend to flee to safety in the form of low-risk dividend-paying stocks like Altria Group (NYSE: MO). The tobacco and nicotine giant is up almost 10% year to date and still sports a dividend with a 7% yield. With those facts in mind, should you buy Altria stock with $1,000 right now?

Pricing power and new nicotine categories

Altria is the parent company of Philip Morris USA, which primarily sells cigarettes in the United States under an array of brands including Marlboro, its best-selling brand by far. While cigarettes are still smoked widely, sales volumes in the U.S. have been declining for decades now, and they continue to. In the fourth quarter, Altria’s cigarette sales volume fell by about 8% year over year.

Despite that, Altria’s net revenue after excise taxes grew by 1.6% year-over-year to $5.1 billion last quarter as the company boosted its prices on packs of cigarettes by more than enough to make up for the lost sales. Its pricing power has allowed it to keep revenues rising in the face of volume declines for many years, while also increasing profit margins for the smokeables division. In 2024, smokeables operating income grew 1.4% to $10.8 billion, making up the majority of Altria’s profits. With a 60% operating margin, the smokeables division is one of the most profitable businesses in the world.

Over the long term, Altria plans to significantly grow its smoke-free division, which includes nicotine pouches, electronic vaping, and potentially other products like heat-not-burn devices. By 2028, management wants to double sales of its smoke-free products to $5 billion, which would be a sizable percentage of Altria’s current annual revenue of $20 billion. However, the company is well behind rivals such as Philip Morris International, where smoke-free products are close to making up 50% of overall sales right now. This will be an important segment for investors to track for the rest of the decade.

Capital returns and dividend growth

Altria’s underlying business is highly profitable, but it’s a low-growth market. The smoke-free products segment has some promise, but for now, it’s a small part of the operation. The best feature of this stock for investors might be management’s capital return strategy.

Through a combination of share repurchases and dividend hikes, Altria Group consistently grows its per-share payouts to shareholders every year. Over the last 10 years, the number of shares outstanding has fallen by 14%, and buybacks accelerated in 2024. Its dividend per share steadily climbed, and is up around 100% in the last 10 years; the current quarterly payout is $1.02 per share.

Management plans to grow its dividend per share at a mid-single-digit percentage rate annually (read: around 5% a year) through 2028. With consistent share repurchases and healthy cash generation still coming from the cigarette business, I think this is an achievable goal.

MO Free Cash Flow Per Share Chart
MO Free Cash Flow Per Share data by YCharts.

Why you should buy Altria Group stock right now

Buying shares of Altria Group stock is an easy way to get dividend income and dividend growth over the next five years. It is a perfect stock to add to a portfolio to provide a counterweight to the growth and technology names that may be sinking at the moment.

Buying $1,000 worth of Altria Group stock will give you around $70 in dividend income every year, based on the current dividend yield. With free cash flow per share of $5.01 — the fuel for dividend payments — and a forward annual dividend per share of $4.08, Altria has room to grow payouts by 5% a year for five years even if its free cash flow per share remains stagnant. However, over the last 10 years, Altria’s free cash flow per share has grown by 103%, outpacing its dividend per share growth.

What does all this mean? For every $1,000 you put into Altria Group stock today, you will get around $70 in dividend income this year. But over the long term, the company should wind up paying you even higher amounts based on its capital return strategy. This makes Altria a fantastic dividend stock to hold during uncertain market environments. Watch those dividend payments pile up even as hypergrowth stocks experience major volatility.
OK financial expert: Retirement savings concerns minimal following stock market drop

OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) – An Oklahoma City financial advisor says he believes Oklahomans looking at the impact stock market changes are having on their savings account will have nothing to worry about in the long term.

The Dow Jones plummeted more than 2,200 points Friday after an already unprecedented drop of nearly 1,700 points the day before.

The big drop, a part of the fallout from President Donald Trump imposing sweeping tariffs on some of the United States’ biggest trade partners. China is the latest to slap the U.S. with retaliatory tariffs.

“It’s definitely one of the fastest drops the market’s seen in history,” said Oklahoma Chartered Financial Analyst Sam Jurrens, Founder of Even Herd.

Jurrens equated the historical nature of the incident to the coronavirus pandemic, saying it’s a situation that will be remembered similarly due to the massive amount of ongoing confusion.

“You had governments starting to mandate shutdowns and those things, a very unclear picture of what’s going to happen, and in those cases, that’s where the market panics,” said Jurrens.

Jurrens said the dramatic market drop can likely be attributed to Trump’s initial tariff plan being much more extreme than what investors likely anticipated, but that it doesn’t mean the situation might not end in a beneficial and positive outcome.

Jurrens says he understands Oklahomans looking at their retirement savings may be concerned. News 4 asked him if they should be worried if they’re noticing big changes.

“If you’re looking at retirement and it’s money you’re not going to touch for at least, you know, five, ten, even 20 years or more, and in that case, it’s not something you should be overly worried about,” said Jurrens.

News 4 pressed Jurrens further about retirees looking at a shorter timetable.

“If it’s a retiree, very short term, you know, you need the money in a month, or a month or a year, something that short term it shouldn’t be invested in the first place, probably to be able to take that kind of loss,” said Jurrens.

Jurrens said it’s typical for the market to see ebbs and flows, and advising someone to take a knee-jerk approach with their money is something he’s not prepared to do. He says he believes the market will bounce back.

“You can play it as dire as you want, and five years from now, I still don’t think it’s going to be much of a discussion, no matter what the outcome is,” said Jurrens.

China says ‘market has spoken’ after US tariffs spark selloff

BEIJING: China said on Saturday (Apr 5) “the market has spoken” in rejecting US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and called on Washington for “equal-footed consultation” after global markets’ dramatic reaction to the trade levies, which drew Chinese retaliation. Several Chinese commerce associations in industries from healthcare and textiles to electronics also issued statements on Saturday calling for unity in exploring alternative markets and warning that the tariffs would worsen inflation in the US. “The market has spoken,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said in a post on Facebook on Saturday morning. He also posted a picture capturing Friday’s falls on US markets. Trump introduced additional 34 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods as part of steep levies imposed on most US trade partners, bringing the total duties on China this year to 54 per cent. Trump also closed a trade loophole that had allowed low-value packages from China to enter the US duty-free. This prompted sweeping retaliation from China on Friday, including extra levies of 34 per cent on all US goods and export curbs on some rare earths, escalating the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. However, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan told public broadcaster RTHK that Hong Kong would not impose separate countermeasures, citing the need for the city to remain “free and open”. Global stock markets plummeted following China’s retaliation and Trump’s comments on Friday that he would not change course, extending sharp losses that followed Trump’s initial tariff announcement earlier in the week and marking the biggest losses since the pandemic. For the week, the S&P 500 was down 9 per cent. “Now is the time for the US to stop doing the wrong things and resolve the differences with trading partners through equal-footed consultation,” Guo wrote in English. China’s chamber of commerce representing traders in food products called on “China’s food and agricultural products import and export industry to unite and strengthen cooperation to jointly explore domestic and foreign markets”. The metals and chemicals traders’ chamber said the tariffs “will push up the import cost for US importers and the consumption cost for consumers, exacerbate domestic inflation in the US, and increase the possibility of a US recession”. Trump’s broadest tariffs to date took effect on Saturday, with a 10 per cent “baseline” tariff hitting most US imports except goods from Mexico and Canada. Dozens of economies, including China, face even higher rates from Apr 9. The US also said on Wednesday that it will end the tax exemption for packages worth less than US$800 from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, starting May 2. Those products will be subjected to a duty rate of 30 per cent of their value, or US$25 per item. The China Express Association, on behalf of China’s postal and express delivery enterprises, expressed firm opposition to the US move to cancel duty-free treatment for low-value packages from China, according to its statement issued on Thursday. The association said that cross-border e-commerce packages from China have helped American consumers meet their personalised consumption needs, reduce their living costs and improve their quality of life, adding that the move will harm the interests of consumers in the United States, especially families and young people, who rely on cross-border e-commerce shopping. “We hope the United States will correct its wrong practice and take necessary measures to create a fair and predictable policy environment for the development of cross-border e-commerce and delivery,” the association said.
Dow plunges 2,200 points as tariff tumult rocks markets

US stocks were battered by a steep sell-off Friday after China retaliated against the United States for President Donald Trump’s tariffs in a tit-for-tat that escalates a global trade war. The Dow plunged by 2,231 points, or 5.5%. The broader S&P 500 was 5.97% lower. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 5.82% lower. The Nasdaq closed in a bear market for the first time since 2022, down more than 20% from its record high in December. The Dow closed in correction, down more than 10% from its record high in December. It is the first time the Dow has closed in correction since March 7, 2022, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. The Dow posted its biggest back-to-back losses since March 2020, during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 shed $5.06 trillion in market value across the past two days, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. The benchmark index, which entered correction Thursday, sank more than 10% over the past two days. Investors have been fearful that a dramatic escalation of a trade war could plunge the US and global economies into a recession. JPMorgan analysts said Thursday that America’s economy and the broader world economy both had a 60% chance of sinking into a recession this year. The analysts also said odds of a recession would rise if countries began to retaliate against the United States — and China did so Friday. Retaliation raises the risk of further escalation and could diminish hopes for negotiation. “Markets may actually be underreacting, especially if these rates turn out to be final, given the potential knock-on effects to global consumption and trade,” said Matt Burdett, head of equities at Thornburg Investment Management. “The tariffs have injected a level of uncertainty and volatility we haven’t seen since the early days of the pandemic.” US stocks briefly rallied from their lowest point of the morning after Trump posted on social media that he had a “very productive call” with To Lam, the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. “(Lam) told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S. I thanked him on behalf of our Country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future,” Trump said. Nike (NKE), which slumped Thursday, rallied 3%. Nike relies extensively on international supply chains and imports from Vietnam, where many of its factories are located. Yet stocks eventually slid to their lows of the day as investors grappled with the extent of Trump’s tariffs and the potential for a slowdown in economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said during prepared remarks Friday that inflation could remain elevated because of Trump’s tariffs. “While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected. The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth,” said Powell, who spoke at an event just outside Washington, DC. “The size and duration of these effects remain uncertain.”

Tariff anxiety roils Wall Street

Investors Friday morning wrestled with tariff anxiety while also digesting fresh data that showed stronger-than-expected job growth in March. The US economy added 228,000 jobs in March, a significant increase from February’s revised gains of 117,000, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. While job growth beat expectations, tariff angst continues to drive market sentiment. “Unfortunately, the market is no longer focused on the jobs market and focused squarely on tariffs and trade wars as the US plays chicken with the rest of the world, potentially beginning a downward spiral into a worldwide recession,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. Traders ditched risky stocks, especially tech companies whose products are manufactured overseas and could soon be subject to enormous tariffs. Apple (AAPL), which tumbled more than 9% Thursday, was down another 7.3% Friday. As stock futures tumbled ahead of the opening bell, Trump posted on social media, “To the many investors coming into the United States and investing massive amounts of money, my policies will never change. This is a great time to get rich, richer than ever before!!!” Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, surged 50%. “Extreme fear” was the sentiment driving markets, according to CNN’s Fear and Greed index, which slumped to its lowest level this year as investors braced for an escalating global trade war. And as investors sold stocks, they poured money into traditional safe havens, including government bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield, which briefly fell below 4% Thursday for the first time since October, fell firmly below 4% Friday as investors bought bonds to insulate themselves from a potential economic downturn. Bond prices and yields trade in opposite directions. Gold prices surged above $3,130 a troy ounce Friday morning, setting another record, before sliding to around $3,030. Gold has soared this year as investors seek out safe havens. Investors ditched other commodities, including oil, out of fear that the trade war could send the global economy into a recession. US oil, which plunged nearly 7% Thursday, tumbled another 7.4% to $61.99 a barrel. Brent oil futures, the global benchmark, fell 6.5%. Both US oil and the global benchmark settled at their lowest level since 2021.

China retaliates against Trump’s tariffs

China announced sweeping 34% tariffs on all US goods starting April 10, a major escalation of a trade war that has been raging for years between the world’s two largest economies. But the tit-for-tat tariff escalation kicked into high gear after Trump took office for the second time in January. Trump in February placed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the US and doubled that rate to 20% in March. On Wednesday, Trump announced that tariffs on China would rise to 54%. That’s on top of existing import taxes, which he and former President Joe Biden already had in place on the country. So the effective tariff rate America imposes on Chinese goods will be well above 54% starting April 9. Markets have been on edge: The Russell 2000, which tracks smaller companies, entered a bear market Thursday. Stocks tumbled all over the world Friday. Europe’s benchmark STOXX 600 index dropped 5.12%, and London’s benchmark FTSE 100 index fell 4.95%, both posting their biggest single-day declines since 2020. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 2.75% after falling 2.77% on Thursday. On Thursday, the Dow fell more than 1,600 points, or nearly 4%. The S&P 500 fell nearly 5% and the Nasdaq plunged nearly 6%. Each of the three major US indexes recorded its worst performance in about five years, since the Covid-19 pandemic. “This is just the tip of the spear. Next it’s going to be retaliation from the EU and other nations. Banks, airlines and other service sector firms are going to get targeted,” said RSM’s Joe Brusuelas. “The Chinese are calling Trump’s bluff.” UBS on Friday lowered its year-end target for the S&P to 5,800 from 6,400 and said the US economy could enter recession in the near-term due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs. “In the near term, we believe the effective tariff rates could be higher still, and without President Trump taking active steps to reduce tariffs over the next three to six months, we are likely to enter a downside scenario, including a meaningful US recession and lower equity markets,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note Friday.

Negotiations or more tariffs?

Trump said Thursday after the market close that he was open to negotiation on trade. He cited TikTok as an example, hoping China would agree to a sale of the popular social media app to a potential US buyer in exchange for lower tariffs. “Every country has called us. That’s the beauty of what we do, we put ourselves in the driver’s seat,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Thursday. “As long as they are giving us something that’s good. For instance, with TikTok as an example, we have a situation with TikTok where China will probably say, ‘We’ll approve a deal, but will you do something on the tariffs?’ The tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have.” Some countries say they’re in active negotiations with the United States to lower the tariff barriers Trump announced this week. The United Kingdom, for example, said it is in talks with the United States to strike an economic agreement, British Foreign Minister David Lammy said on Friday. But other countries chose to retaliate. Canada on Thursday announced retaliatory tariffs on some US-made cars. France’s finance minister said the European Union was not considering reciprocal tariffs to respond to the Trump administration’s tariffs, because they could hurt European consumers, but the EU could target individual US companies, Eric Lombard said in an interview Friday with CNN affiliate BFMTV. The New York Times on Thursday reported the EU was considering penalties against Tesla. Trump on Thursday dismissed the massive declines in the stock market, saying it’s “to be expected” and that the economy is in a “transition period.” He called the economy a “sick patient.”
Automakers seek ‘opportunity in the chaos’ of Trump’s tariffs

DETROIT — As President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles were set to take effect, executives at Ford Motor scrambled to figure out how to respond to the new levies. While they and their industry counterparts are still trying to navigate the impacts, Ford decided to move quickly in one area by offering an employee pricing program — called “From America, For America” — for U.S. consumers. Such programs have historically been controversial, as they sell vehicles close to or lower than invoice prices for dealers and eat away at already tight profit margins for the retailers. But Ford decided the time was right to launch the program to promote its U.S. operations — the largest among automakers — and assist sales amid consumer concerns and economic uncertainty due to Trump’s tariffs. “We understand that these are uncertain times for many Americans. Whether it’s navigating the complexities of a changing economy or simply needing a reliable vehicle for your family, we want to help,” Ford said in a statement Thursday morning announcing the program. “We have the retail inventory to do this and a lot of choice for customers that need a vehicle.” It’s an example of how some automakers are attempting to find “opportunity in the chaos” or trying to “capitalize on the moment” amid the tariffs, as several industry analysts told CNBC. “I absolutely love it. I think it’s going to drive sales,” said Ford dealer Marc McEver, owner of Olathe Ford Lincoln near Kansas City, Kansas. “It’s really exciting to see Ford step up and take the lead on this program. I think it’s a great play. … It’s truly a real deal for the customer.” Ford, which is helping retailers financially with the program, told dealers about it a day ahead of the tariffs taking effect Thursday. It publicly announced the new program — which runs through June 30 — hours after the levies began. Heading into the tariffs, Ford also was largely viewed by Wall Street analysts as being one of the best-positioned automakers because of its large U.S. production footprint, specifically for trucks. Ford’s stock fared better than its rivals this week, closing the week down by 1.4%. That compares with Chrysler parent Stellantis losing 14.2% and General Motors dropping 5.4% for the week. Others are following Ford’s strategy, which also is assisted by vehicle prices and profits being higher since the Covid pandemic. Crosstown rival Stellantis on Friday announced a similar employee-pricing program, while Hyundai Motor said it would not raise prices for at least two months to ease consumer concerns. “It makes sense that they would try to capitalize on the moment,” said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive. Keating points out that with Ford and Stellantis — the latter of which is based in Europe but has major operations and brands in the U.S. — it’s a reminder to consumers that they’re “domestic” companies. The automakers also have inventory, including older models, that they need to sell to make way for newer vehicles. “Making room for those new vehicles to come into the showroom and trying to maintain that market share makes a lot of sense,” Keating said. “Anyone who’s able to beat the price out there right now, with the level of demand, is going to be able to hold on to their market share longer than others, and perhaps capture something from those that aren’t willing to meet the customer where they are right now.” Ford and Stellantis brands such as Ram Trucks and Jeep have among the highest days’ supply of vehicle inventories in the automotive industry, according to Cox Automotive. The two companies also were among the only major automakers this week to report notable drops in first-quarter vehicle sales. Stellantis was off roughly 12%, while Ford was down 1.3% from a year earlier. Cox reports the national days’ supply vehicle average was 89 days, while those brands were between 110 days and 130 days. The auto industry has historically considered a healthy days’ supply to be between 60 days to 80 days. In light of the tariffs and fears for potential price increases, demand for vehicles has been high. Consumers flocked to dealer showrooms at the end of last month as Trump confirmed the tariffs would be coming, leading to significant sales gains for many automakers. Cox Automotive estimated new-vehicle sales in March hit 1.59 million units sold, significantly exceeding its forecast and marking the best month for sales volume in four years. “The last week, and including this past weekend, was by far the best weekend that I’ve seen in a very long time,” Hyundai Motor North America CEO Randy Parker said Tuesday during a media call. “I’ve been doing this now for a very, very long time. So, lots of people, I think, rushed in this weekend, especially, to try and beat the tariffs.” Selling now because future sales aren’t guaranteed also could assist if there’s a U.S. recession. J.P. Morgan on Friday raised its odds for a U.S. and global recession from a 40% chance to 60% chance by the end of the year. “Because the demand is there right now, it makes sense [to offer consumer incentives] because everyone’s saying, ‘Gotta go get it now,’ might as well go ahead and reap the benefits now in case we do go into a recession,” Keating said.
Higher prices are likely for these 10 grocery items when tariffs hit

A trip to the grocery or liquor store is about to become even more expensive, economists say, following the latest round of import tariffs announced by President Trump on Wednesday. Those tariffs — taxes paid by businesses on goods from abroad — come on the heels of a previous round aimed specifically at Canada, Mexico and China. Prices for items such as seafood, coffee, wine, nuts and cheese are all expected to rise. And if you’re tempted to grab a candy bar while you’re in the checkout line, you’ll probably have to pay more for that as well. Food industry analyst Phil Lempert, also the editor of supermarketguru.com, estimates that with the latest tariffs “probably almost half of the products in a supermarket — about 40,000 products — will be affected by these tariffs, whether it’s the entire product or just an ingredient.” Joseph Balagtas, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, says food prices will also be affected by other factors related to tariffs, such as higher costs for fertilizer from Canada and a weaker U.S. dollar. “A main takeaway here is that the country-specific, food-specific tariffs will not tell the whole story,” he says. “This is such a big change in policy that there will be broader implications.” It’s impossible yet to know how much the tariffs will affect prices, but with the 10% tariff for many countries and higher “reciprocal tariffs” on other nations, the tariff rates by country could provide some clues. Here are 10 grocery items you might want to keep an eye on and their country of origin (with tariff rates in parentheses).

Seafood

Some top sources: Chile (10%), India (26%), Indonesia (32%) and Vietnam (46%) are the largest suppliers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This category is likely to take a big hit because the U.S. imports the vast majority of its seafood — up to 85% according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — and several countries that supply fish and shellfish to the U.S. have been among the hardest hit by the tariffs.

Coffee

Top sources: Brazil (10%) and Colombia (10%), according to USDA. The U.S. is the world’s largest importer of coffee, with about 80% of U.S. roasted imports coming from Latin America. More than 60% comes from just two countries — Brazil and Colombia, USDA says.

Fruit

Some top sources: Guatemala (10%), Costa Rica (10%) and Peru (10%) Guatemala and Costa Rica are leading exporters of bananas to the U.S. Guatemala also ships melons, plantains and papayas, according to USDA, while Costa Rica exports pineapples, avocados and mangoes. “These products don’t have a long shelf life, and with the tariffs, we’re going to face significant issues with both price and availability,” Lempert says.

Alcohol

Top sources for wine: the European Union — France, Italy and Spain (20%). New Zealand (10%) and Australia (10%), according to USDA. Top sources for beer: Mexico (25%), the Netherlands and Ireland (both with the EU’s 20% tariff) and Canada (25%) If your favorite summer beverage is Modelo, Corona, Heineken or Guinness, you’ll likely be paying more. Tequila imports from Mexico have also seen a surge in recent years and will be affected by the tariffs. Lempert says the imported alcohol sector is likely “to be clobbered.” He also notes that beer sold in cans is also going to get a double hit due to tariffs on China and other aluminum producers.

Beef

Some top sources: New Zealand (10%) and Australia (10%), according to USDA. Although 90% of beef consumed in the U.S. is domestically produced, tariffs will likely add to existing price pressures. The cost of ground beef for consumers, for example, is already at historic highs and according to the USDA, the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been since 1951.

Rice

Top sources: Thailand (36%) and India (26%), according to USDA. Although most rice sold in the U.S. is domestically produced, nearly a third is imported, mainly jasmine rice from Thailand and basmati rice from India.

Cheese

Top sources: Italy, France, Spain and the Netherlands (all subject to 20% EU tariff), according to USDA. Parmigiano-Reggiano, brie and Gouda could also see price rises.

Nuts

Top sources: Vietnam (46%), Côte d’Ivoire (21%), Brazil (10%), Thailand (36%), according to the World Bank. Cashews, pecans and macadamia nuts are likely to see the largest price increases.

Chocolate

Top source: Côte d’Ivoire (21%) and Ecuador (10%), according to USDA. The Hershey Company, one of the largest U.S. importers of cocoa beans, says it sources its supply from Brazil, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Ghana, Indonesia, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea and Peru. NPR reached out to Hershey, which makes Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and Kit Kat bars, among others, to inquire about future price increases. A spokesman for Hershey, Todd Scott, said the company could not comment because it is in an earnings window. However, Lempert says the tariffs come on top of “serious increases in cocoa beans for probably the past two or three years because of the weather and the political climate in … Africa.”

Olive oil

Top sources: European Union (20%), particularly Spain, Italy and Greece. “Olive oil prices have gone through the roof,” Lempert says. “They’re going to go even higher.”
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