Target Trails Walmart and Costco With a 40% Five-Year Slide

Target's stock is down 40% over the past five years while Walmart and Costco have rewarded shareholders, leaving a new chief executive to prove the retailer can recover; Target last traded at 152.68, up 1.11% on the day, as of 16:32 GMT on 18 August 2026.

Five years is long enough to separate a retailer with a cyclical problem from one with a structural one. Target Corp. (TGT) has spent that stretch on the wrong side of the line: its stock is down 40% over the period, while Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) have handed shareholders substantial gains. Same consumer, same inflation, same freight costs, three very different outcomes — and now a new chief executive whose mandate is to prove the gap can be closed.

The scale of the divergence is what makes this more than a bad-quarter story. A 40% decline over five years is not a stumble in a single holiday season or a one-off inventory writedown. It is the market repricing what Target's earnings power is actually worth, at the same time as it was raising its estimate of what its two largest competitors are worth.

What the tape looked like on Tuesday

The intraday picture was calm, and in Target's case mildly constructive. As of the last trade at 16:32 GMT on 18 August 2026, Target changed hands at 152.68, up 1.11% from the prior close of 151.01, having traded between 151.99 and 154.26 on the session. That leaves it about 1.58 below the day's high — an illustrative gap based on the quoted range, not a reported figure.

Its peers did better on the day. Walmart traded at 115.86, up 1.34% from a previous close of 114.33, inside a range of 114.48 to 116.31. Costco was the strongest of the three at 968.83, up 1.61% from 953.50, with a session range of 955.03 to 971.96. Note that the exchange listing and reporting currency for all three quotes were not specified in the data feed supplied, so the levels above are stated as quoted.

All three moved higher against a softer market. The S&P 500 tracker (SPY) was at $768.18, down 0.58% from a prior close of $772.67. The Nasdaq 100 proxy (QQQ) was weaker still at $718.19, off 1.60% from $729.87, while the Dow tracker (DIA) held up better at $533.26, down 0.17%. On a day when the broad tape was heavy and megacap technology was leading it lower, big-box retail was catching a bid — the classic rotation into companies that sell groceries and household staples when investors get nervous about growth multiples.

Why one day tells you almost nothing here

A 1.11% gain does not begin to address a 40% five-year hole. That is the central tension for anyone looking at Target now. The stock is cheap relative to its own history, and cheap relative to Walmart and Costco on almost any measure investors care to use — but it has been cheap for a while, and cheapness has not been a catalyst.

What separates the winners here is not merchandising flair. Walmart and Costco both built their five-year records on a heavier mix of consumables, which brings shoppers through the door more often and makes traffic less sensitive to the discretionary spending cycle. Costco layers a membership fee on top, a stream of revenue that arrives whether or not a member buys anything in a given month. Walmart has spent the period converting its store estate into a fulfillment network and monetizing the resulting traffic through advertising and marketplace fees.

Target's mix leans harder on the categories consumers postpone first — apparel, home goods, seasonal decor. That mix is a tailwind when household balance sheets are flush and a millstone when they are not. Add the periodic inventory misjudgments and margin resets that come with discretionary goods, and the earnings line becomes far harder for the market to underwrite. The 24/7 Wall St framing is blunt on the point: while the other two rewarded investors, Target did the opposite.

The new chief executive's actual job

A leadership change at a retailer of this size is usually read as either a reset or an admission. The signal to watch is which problem the new CEO chooses to attack first, because the available options are not equally fast.

• Traffic. The cheapest fix in theory and the hardest in practice. More visits per customer per year is what compounds; discounting buys a quarter and costs a margin point.
• Mix. Pushing further into food and essentials narrows the gap with Walmart on frequency but invites a price fight with the lowest-cost operator in American retail.
• Digital economics. Same-day fulfillment out of stores can be accretive or corrosive depending on how the cost per order is engineered.
• Capital discipline. With the multiple compressed, buybacks look mathematically attractive — and are also the easiest way to spend cash that a turnaround needs.

None of those levers moves a five-year return chart in a quarter. What they can move is the market's confidence interval around future earnings, and that is what a depressed multiple actually reflects.

What would count as evidence of a turn

Investors watching this situation should be looking for a sequence, not a headline. Comparable sales turning positive without a corresponding collapse in gross margin would be the first real signal, because it would mean traffic was bought with relevance rather than markdowns. A stabilized inventory position going into a holiday quarter would be the second. A credible, specific plan on digital fulfillment cost per order would be the third.

The bear case is equally simple: that the discount and warehouse-club models have permanently taken share from the general-merchandise middle, and Target's five-year underperformance is the market pricing a smaller long-term business rather than a temporarily mismanaged one. Tuesday's modest bid, in a down market, does not settle that argument. It only shows that at these levels, some buyers think the argument is worth having.

Key facts

• TGT last trade: 152.68, +1.11% (as of 16:32 GMT, 18 Aug 2026)
• Five-year stock performance: Down 40%
• Peer quotes: WMT 115.86 (+1.34%); COST 968.83 (+1.61%)
• Market backdrop: SPY $768.18 (-0.58%); QQQ $718.19 (-1.60%)

Frequently asked questions

How much has Target's stock fallen over five years?

Target's shares are down 40% over the past five years. That is a decline in the share price over the period, and it stands in contrast to Walmart and Costco, both of which delivered gains for shareholders across the same stretch. The drop reflects the market lowering its assessment of Target's durable earnings power rather than a single bad quarter.

Where was Target trading on 18 August 2026?

Target last traded at 152.68, up 1.11% from a previous close of 151.01, as of 16:32 GMT on 18 August 2026, with the market open. Its intraday range that session was 151.99 to 154.26. The exchange listing and reporting currency were not specified in the market data supplied for this article.

How did Walmart and Costco trade the same day?

Walmart was quoted at 115.86, up 1.34% from a prior close of 114.33, inside a session range of 114.48 to 116.31. Costco traded at 968.83, up 1.61% from 953.50, ranging between 955.03 and 971.96. Both gains outpaced Target's 1.11% advance on the day.

Why have Walmart and Costco outperformed Target?

Both carry a heavier weighting toward groceries and consumables, which brings shoppers back more often and makes sales less sensitive to discretionary spending cycles. Costco also collects membership fees regardless of purchase activity. Target's mix skews toward apparel, home goods and seasonal categories that consumers cut first when budgets tighten.

What is the new CEO expected to fix?

Target has a new chief executive tasked with turning the retailer around. The practical levers are rebuilding customer traffic without heavy discounting, adjusting the merchandise mix toward more frequent purchases, improving the unit economics of digital fulfillment, and allocating capital carefully while the share multiple stays compressed. None of these changes a five-year return chart quickly.

What signals would suggest a genuine recovery?

The most useful evidence would be comparable sales returning to growth without gross margin deteriorating, which implies traffic was won on relevance rather than markdowns. Stable inventory heading into a holiday quarter and a specific, credible plan for lowering digital fulfillment cost per order would strengthen the case further.

Sources

• Target’s Stock Down 40% In Five Years — 24/7 Wall St

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