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DRDGOLD (DRD) is back in focus after updating investors on production guidance to June 2026. The company indicated that output is tracking toward the upper end of its 140,000 to 150,000 ounce range while keeping unit costs within guidance.
The production update comes after a strong run in the stock, with a 90 day share price return of 27.09% and a very large 1 year total shareholder return. However, the 30 day share price return shows a 1.63% decline, which hints that short term momentum has cooled slightly compared with the longer term trend.
If you are looking beyond gold tailings producers and want to see what else is moving, our screener of 21 elite gold producer stocks is a straightforward way to find other names to research next.
With revenue growth running at 29.22%, an intrinsic discount of 62.35% and the share price still sitting below the average analyst target of US$46.50, you have to ask: is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
DCF suggests plenty of upside, but what is the market pricing in?
Our DCF model points to an estimated fair value of $94.68 for DRDGOLD, compared with the last close of $35.65. This implies a wide valuation gap on paper.
The SWS DCF model works by projecting the company’s future cash flows and then discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. In simple terms, it tries to answer what those future cash flows are worth in today’s dollars, rather than just relying on current earnings or sales.
For a gold tailings retreatment business like DRDGOLD, that kind of approach can matter because cash generation is linked to a defined asset base, production profile and cost discipline, rather than open ended expansion. The model is effectively weighing up the recent revenue growth, higher profit margins and high Return on Equity, and then setting these factors against the usual sector risks to arrive at that $94.68 figure.
Result: DCF Fair value of $94.68 (UNDERVALUED)
However, you still need to weigh gold price volatility and South Africa specific operating risks, which could quickly change how secure those projected cash flows appear.
No contrasting valuation needed here
The SWS view on DRDGOLD already rests on a discounted cash flow approach, so there is no second method pulling in a different direction. That makes the key question quite simple for you as an investor: do you trust the cash flow assumptions that sit behind that $94.68 figure?
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out DRDGOLD for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 54 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
If this mix of potential and concern has you on the fence, take a closer look at the data now and weigh up 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign for yourself.
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