A U.S. stock market rocked by President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth on foreign import tariffs faces a Federal Reserve meeting in the coming week, as investors look for hints about further interest rate cuts that could restore some calm to markets.
A weeks-long slide in stocks accelerated in recent days with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab on Thursday confirming it was in a correction, ending down over 10% from its February 19 record high. The decline has wiped off more than $4 trillion in market value, with some of Wall Street’s highest fliers such as Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab and Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab getting pummeled.
The Fed’s latest monetary policy meeting comes as Wall Street is increasingly worried about an economic slowdown, with concerns exacerbated by Trump ramping up his tariff war.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, but investors are anticipating cuts later in the year and will be looking for signs the Fed may be preparing to move.
“The stock market is trying to get any type of insight as to when the Fed will be comfortable enough to implement their next rate cut,” said Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist at Morningstar Wealth. “I don’t think the onslaught of headlines and new policies coming from the White House is going to stop anytime soon.”
Prospects for rate cuts won a boost this week with tame consumer price data that brought some relief about inflation. The pace of inflation has cooled since 2022 when the Fed started its rate-hiking cycle, and while it remains above the central bank’s 2% annual target, recent disappointing economic data could start to take more prominence.
“The first step that the stock market would like to see from (the Fed) is them signaling that focus is shifting back to supporting economic activity away from the inflation fight,” Pappalardo said.
Investors over the past month have increased bets on more easing this year, with Fed funds futures indicating about three quarter-point cuts expected through 2025, compared to the current rate of 4.25%-4.5%, according to LSEG data.
Crucial will be comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his press conference after the monetary policy decision is announced.
“The market has repriced the Fed” over the last few weeks, said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital. “If he pushes back hard against that re-pricing that we’ve had in the futures market, then that could be problematic.”
In the meantime, some prominent strategists have become more downbeat on the outlook for the economy and for U.S. stocks. Goldman Sachs dropped its 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,200 from 6,500, while Yardeni Research lowered its “best-case” target for the index to 6,400 from 7,000. The S&P 500 ended on Thursday at 5,521.52.
Volatility has been rising with the Cboe Volatility index (.VIX), opens new tab this week hitting its highest level since August before receding somewhat.
Tariff news is still likely to be at the forefront for markets in the coming week, with analysts saying the levies could bite into corporate profits and drive up consumer prices.
In the latest salvo, Trump on Thursday threatened a 200% tariff on all wines and other alcoholic products from Europe. A day earlier, the European Commission said it will impose counter tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to blanket U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
While the Fed has been the “centerpiece” for markets in recent years, other policy dynamics are likely to drive markets in the next couple of months, said Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer for equity and multi-asset solutions at Manulife Investment Management.
“The bigger story is still going to likely be the back and forth that we continue to see on the tariff front,” Thooft said.