Amid persistent threats from an encircling Russian military, Ukraine’s top diplomat warns that an invasion would be accompanied by ‘systemic and bold attempts’ to destabilize Kyiv.
The Ukrainian government is on high alert this week following intelligence reports revealed Friday by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicating a Russia-backed coup attempt is imminent.
Speaking to reporters early Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said his country’s law enforcement agencies were still studying the intelligence Zelenskiy cited during a press conference the previous week. The reports indicate that a billionaire Ukrainian oligarch may try to seize power with Russia’s support on Dec. 1 or 2. Kuleba said his government would have more details to reveal soon.
But he added it was already clear that the reported move amounted to yet another attempt by President Vladimir Putin to impose pressure on the former Soviet satellite state at a time of threats from Russia’s military.
“When we speak of a hybrid warfare, external military pressure goes hand in hand with domestic destabilization of the country,” Kuleba said in a teleconference from Kyiv. “I want to be clear: If – if – Russia decides to resort to the last measure of military offensive operation, it will undoubtedly be preceded or accompanied by systemic and bold attempts to destabilize Ukraine from inside by all means available to Russia.”
Ukraine, the U.S. and their partners in Europe have expressed alarm in recent weeks at a massive buildup of Russian forces on its side of the border adjacent to the ongoing Russia-backed warzone in Ukraine’s eastern reaches. Russia has also mobilized thousands of forces it deployed to the Crimean Peninsula earlier this year under the auspices of a military exercise but never removed. And Western officials, including Kuleba on Monday, also believe a migrant crisis in Belarus orchestrated by Putin amounts to an attempt to destabilize the region including Ukraine – along with recent deployments there of Russian special operations and paratroops.
Zelenskiy in his statements on Friday claimed that businessman Rinat Akhmetov, among the wealthiest people in Ukraine, “has been drawn into war against the Ukrainian state.” The intelligence he cited at least in part came from U.S. government sources, an unnamed source close to Zelenskiy told Politico. The young Ukrainian leader’s tenure has been defined by a hard line against Moscow.
Akhmetov and the Kremlin have vervently denied any such plans.
One of the big unanswered questions relates to something Russian revolutionary Leon Trotsky once observed about coup attempts, noting that they can succeed without the army but they cannot succeed against the army. As such, it remains unclear how an oligarch would be able to carry out a coup of Ukraine’s fragile democracy without at least some passive buy-in from a sizable portion of its military leadership.
President Joe Biden, whose administration has broadly supported U.S. efforts to help Ukraine defend itself and deter Russia, has also raised concerns about the integrity of Kyiv’s governance. He demurred this summer, for example, when asked whether as president he stood by prior assertions that Ukraine should join NATO.
“School’s out on that question,” Biden said from Brussels during a NATO summit. “It depends on whether they meet the criteria. The fact is they still have to clean up corruption and the fact is they have to meet other criteria to get into the action plan.”
When asked Monday about whether an oligarch or other Russia-backed official could indeed orchestrate a coup plot in Ukraine, Kuleba deferred to the ongoing investigation into the latest details.
“But,” he added, “[The] Ukrainian army enjoys high respect and trust in the Ukrainian society.”
“The leadership of the army is committed to defending the sovereignty and the democratically elected government and leadership of Ukraine,” Kuleba said. “I do not have any evidence that would speak to the contrary. When it comes to such sensitive information, such sensitive cases as [a] potential coup, we have to be extremely careful in wording, in our estimates, and let the law enforcement offices present what they have in due time.”
NATO foreign ministers are gathering in Riga, Latvia, on Tuesday to discuss ways to counter Russia’s increased aggression, including potential diplomatic, economic or military punishments in response.