Major changes to Israeli policy seem unlikely as Benjamin Netanyahu’s 12-year tenure in leadership appears to be nearing an end.
Those who might be expecting sweeping change in Israeli policy as the 12-year tenure of its hard-line leader Benjamin Netanyahu appears poised to draw to a close this weekend are unlikely to see it.
Despite recent international condemnation over the heavy-handed campaign in Gaza, the construction of Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory and the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist, analysts suggest the overall direction of the new government is expected to be consistent with the last.
That may be because the incoming government – formed through an unprecedented coalition of right-wingers and moderates, including for the first time an independent Arab party – are united less by ideology than by a seeming common cause of disaffection for the outgoing political leader. Led by fellow right-winger and Netanyahu protege Naftali Bennett for roughly the first two years, the most pressing issues facing the incoming government won’t differ much from the policies of the outgoing administration.
“On the Iranian front, I assume that the underlying position will not change, namely opposing the current or revised deal, but the tone and style will be much more refined and less defiant than the current one,” says Barak Medina, a law professor at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem. “As for the Palestinians, it will probably take a few months before the new administration in Israel is ready to deal with this sensitive issue. The new prime minister will need some time to gain some legitimacy among the right-wing before he can lead open talks.”
“I assume that secret discussions will start earlier, but it is highly unlikely that a new agreement is reached in the coming year,” Medina adds.
Netanyahu failed to form a government despite four elections in two years. The government that will replace him is composed of an extremely fragile coalition and power-sharing arrangement, which will see current opposition leader Yair Lapid, chairman of the centrist Yesh Atid party. The Knesset will hold a confidence vote on Sunday on the arrangement that the new government is expected to win. The formal transfer of power should take place shortly afterward.
Despite a bigger political tent and the overt urging of the Biden administration, hopes for new peace talks with the Palestinians still appear out of reach for the incoming administration.
“I don’t think these talks are likely in any event, not in a Netanyahu government and not in a Bennett-Lapid government,” says Khaled Elgindy, director of the Middle East Institute’s Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs.
“It’s the sort of thing that could actually bring down the government,” he adds. “Peace talks means that you want to create conditions, and creating conditions means you’re going to do things like freeze settlements or rein in the settlers or cancel the expulsions of Palestinians. This new government is going to be so fragile that it’s going to want to avoid any dramatic moves in any direction.”
Netanyahu’s agenda, in fact, has largely focused on maintaining the status quo in recent years for political reasons but also personally – he continues to face criminal charges for corruption.
“His departure could mark a change in the motivation of the Israeli leadership to bring about a change, but it seems that, at least in the short-run, the new coalition will need some time to be formed and gain popular legitimacy before it can make meaningful steps,” Medina says. “The concern is thus not about Israeli priorities – ‘Israel has only domestic politics’ – but about its political structure that makes a change politically costly, as evident by the attempt of Prime Minister [Ehud] Barak in 2000 to lead to peace.”
Barak’s tenure has become an example of the potential for missteps among a new administration. His attempts at peace negotiations with the Palestine Liberation Organization in the late 1990s were undermined by subsequent violence by the militant group Hamas, which now controls Gaza, ultimately diminishing public confidence in him.
And the need for such talks may not even be at the top of the new government’s agenda. The United Arab List party led by Mansour Abbas signed on to the coalition in a historic move for Arabs in Israel. Analysts say Abbas is betting on downplaying the need for a two-state solution, for Palestinian liberation or even an end to Israeli occupation of contested territories and instead focus on more practical deliverables for his constituents, namely fighting organized crime among Arab populations in Israel, along with infrastructure projects.
The style of Netanyahu’s hard line against Iran will likely remain in the incoming government, if not also his particular brazen style of executing those policy goals for what is perhaps the only issue that unites Israelis.
In his latest memor, former President Barack Obama assessed that Netanyahu considers himself “the chief defender of the Jewish people against calamity,” which, in turn, “allowed him to justify almost anything that would keep him in power.” And, Obama added, “his familiarity with American politics and media gave him confidence that he could resist whatever pressure a Democratic administration like mine might try to apply.”
Nowhere was this more evident than his visits to the U.S. as the Obama administration was conceiving of and later trying to gain congressional approval for a deal with Iran – the Israeli government’s chief rival and, with its nuclear program, perhaps the greatest existential threat to the Jewish state.[
A frosty Oval Office meeting in 2011 resulted in what was broadly considered an on-camera “lecture” by the Jewish leader to a commander in chief 12 years his junior on which he capitalized for subsequent reelections. Four years later Netanyahu took on the highly unusual move of speaking before a joint session of Congress to rail against the Iran deal and attempt to exploit deep support for Israel among some quarters of Capitol Hill.
“The legacy will be mainly one of style,” Elgindy says. “Netanyahu was the prime minister who wagged his finger at President Obama in the Oval Office and showed him up by going to the U.S. Congress to lobby against the Iran deal.”
Even if the Biden administration resumes the path of pursuing negotiations with Iran, for Israel, an outlook without Netanyahu won’t become much different.
Netanyahu’s own plans portend the future of Israeli politics, which have trended rightward in recent years but remain divided over enduring support for the outgoing prime minister.
“If Netanyahu were to leave the scene, the Knesset would probably be able to form the most right-wing government in Israel’s history,” Elgindy says. “Right now, Netanyahu is the divisive factor, he’s the polarizing figure that is splitting the right wing in Israel.”
“How will people respond to him when he doesn’t have the title of prime minister? Will he lose the measure of control he has over his party? Or, it could be like our situation in our country with the GOP where post-President Trump is still somehow the leader of the Republicans.”