Stock has fallen for three straight days but is still a handy 148% above its IPO price
Beyond Meat Inc. shares fell for a third straight day Friday, briefly pushing the stock below its first-day closing level for the first time since the company’s eye-popping initial public offering last week.
The plant-based meat company BYND, -3.00% soared 163% on its first day of trade, nearly tripling its issue price of $25 to close at $65.75. On Friday, it traded below $62, which is still 148% above the IPO price.
The stock’s highest price so far is $85.45, which it hit on Monday.
The company, founded by vegan Ethan Brown in 2009, raised nearly a quarter of a billion dollars last week to grow its line of plant-based meats. Excitement about the deal grew steadily after it first announced plans to go public late last year and hit new heights during its roadshow with investors, leading it to increase the size of the deal and raise its price range a day ahead of pricing.
While research analysts from banks that helped underwrite the deal are unable to offer their views during the current so-called quiet period, Oppenheimer published a bullish note on Tuesday, assigning the stock an $81 share-price target that is more than triple the IPO price.
Analysts led by Alexia Howard said if the plant-based meat market were to develop in the same way as the plant-based dairy market has, it would create a total addressable market of about $40.5 billion within a decade. If Beyond Meat could capture a 5% share of that market—it has a 2% stake today—it would mean sales of $2 billion in 2028, she wrote in a note to clients.
Grizzle, a research firm that focuses on millennial investing and personal finance trends, initiated coverage of Beyond Meat on Friday and described the company as the “belle of the science lab ball,” having won over vegetarians and carnivores alike. The company’s strategy has been to place its products in the meat locker in the stores where it’s sold, and it uses beet juice to create the bleeding effect seen with real meat as another enticement for meat eaters.
“The marketing campaign for Beyond Meat has been nothing short of masterful, this is not marketed as some hippy-dippy shit lifestyle brand — there’s a heavy cadre of big influencers (athletes, musicians) behind this,” said Grizzle President Thomas George, author of the report.
Famous names that have endorsed the brand include entrepreneur and philanthropist Bill Gates, actors Leonardo DiCaprio and Jessica Chastain and rap star and cannabis entrepreneur Snoop Dogg.
George is confident that as the company builds scale, the price of its products will come down. For now, its faux-meat is more expensive than the real thing. The company will further benefit from its first-mover status as first of its peer to hit the public markets, he said.
While it’s likely a big food company will acquire the company in the next five years, the stock has tremendous upside potential as an independent player, he said.
“We believe that Beyond Meat can realistically capture 40% of the U.S., and 25% of the global (ex-U. S.) plant-based protein market by 2030,” he said. Using a 1 times revenue multiple or 17 times price-to-earnings in 2030, gives the stock a value of $1,100 a share, he said.
Beyond Meat shares were last down 1.5%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.5%.
The Renaissance IPO ETF has gained 32% in 2019 so far, while the Renaissance International IPO ETF has gained 13%.