Central bank wants to save bond buying for emergency and that seems far away
President Donald Trump’s call for the Federal Reserve to resume bond buying to spur the economy won’t resonate at the central bank, which views that policy as reserved for dire emergencies. And Trump’s reelection doesn’t qualify.
“I would say in terms of quantitative tightening, it should actually now be quantitative easing,” the president said Friday to reporters.
Fed officials think the economy is in a “good place” with low unemployment and benign inflation. If they sense a slowdown, Fed officials will first act by trimming their benchmark interest rate.
“If there is an easing cycle, the Fed would first reduce interest rates to zero. Then they would think about unconventional policy depending on the depth of the recession,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC, agreed: “The Fed is unlikely to look to quantitative easing until it is done with interest rates.”
And bond buying might not be the preferred option in the next recession, analysts noted.
Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida in February floated the idea the central bank might try “yield curve control” in the next recession.
The Fed’s bond purchases were never popular among Republicans.
In the wake of the financial crisis, the Fed engineered three rounds of bond buying, known as quantitative easing, to push down long-term interest ratesTMUBMUSD10Y, -0.75% and spur growth in the wake of the financial crisis. This boosted the central bank’s balance sheet above $4 trillion.
Congressional Republicans had a profound dislike of the Fed’s quantitative easing programs and fretted, incorrectly, it would lead to hyperinflation. The Tea Party made headway with an “End the Fed” policy position.
Trump’s proposed selections for the Fed, Herman Cain and Stephen Moore, both were opposed to quantitative easing. They have said they want to juice the economy though low interest rates.
“The new Republican stance on central bank policy seems to be lower interest rates when they have the White House and high rates when Democrats are in the Oval Office,” said Aaron Klein, a fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution.