Healthcare real estate investment trust Welltower Inc (NYSE:WELL) currently demonstrates characteristics that align with the Mark Minervini Trend Template while also offering fundamental momentum that appeals to high-growth investors. The strategy, developed by two-time U.S. Investing Champion Mark Minervini, combines strict technical criteria with accelerating earnings and revenue growth to identify stocks in strong uptrends that are poised for further gains. Below we break down exactly how WELL measures up against these criteria.
Meeting the Trend Template
The Minervini Trend Template uses eight technical conditions to confirm a stock is in a healthy Stage 2 uptrend. Welltower passes all of them based on current data:
- Current price above the 150-day and 200-day moving averages: At $213.74, WELL trades well above its 150-day SMA of $196.89 and its 200-day SMA of $189.80.
- 150-day and 200-day moving averages trending upward: The 200-day SMA rose to $189.80 from $189.57 previously, confirming an upward slope. The 150-day SMA also trends higher.
- 50-day SMA above both the 150-day and 200-day SMAs: The 50-day SMA at $207.71 sits comfortably above both the 150-day ($196.89) and 200-day ($189.80) averages, indicating strong short-term momentum.
- Price at least 30% above its 52-week low: The 52-week low is $146.65; the current price of $213.74 is 45.8% above that level.
- Price within 25% of its 52-week high: The 52-week high is $221.68; the current price is only 3.6% below that peak.
- Relative Strength above 70: With a ChartMill Relative Strength score of 80.9, WELL outperforms nearly 81% of all stocks.
These conditions confirm that WELL is in a persistent uptrend with strong institutional support. The positive long-term and short-term trends (both rated positive) align with Minervini’s emphasis on buying stocks that already show upward momentum rather than trying to catch falling knives.
High Growth Fundamentals
Minervini’s strategy extends beyond technicals to include fundamental strength – particularly earnings and revenue acceleration. Welltower’s recent data points to accelerating growth across key metrics:
Earnings per share (TTM): $2.02, with 1-year EPS growth of 16.1% and a dramatic 155% quarter-over-quarter EPS surge.
Revenue acceleration: 1-year revenue growth of 37.6%, with the latest quarter showing 38.3% year-over-year sales growth. Revenue estimates also moved upward by 10.2% in the last three months.
Profit margin expansion: The latest quarter’s profit margin jumped to 21.7%, up from 3.0% in the prior quarter and significantly above the full-year margin of 8.6%.
Upward estimate revisions: Analysts raised next-year EPS estimates by 13.3% and next-year revenue estimates by 10.2% in just the last three months.
The combination of strong EPS growth (especially the 155% quarterly spike), accelerating revenue, and improving margins is exactly the type of fundamental backdrop Minervini looks for. These metrics suggest the company is not just growing but gaining operational leverage.
Valuation and Momentum Context
While the stock is trading near its 52-week high – often a psychological barrier for some investors – Minervini argues that stocks making new highs tend to make further new highs. The current price sits just 3.6% below the 52-week peak, while the S&P 500 also trades near its own highs, indicating a supportive macro environment.
From a technical analysis perspective, the ChartMill Technical Report rates WELL with a perfect 10 out of 10 for technical health and an 8 out of 10 for setup quality. This means the stock not only has strong underlying trends but also shows a favorable consolidation pattern with reduced volatility – a classic setup for a potential breakout.
Full Technical Analysis Report for WELL
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The technical report identifies several support zones that could serve as stop-loss levels for a trade:
- A primary support zone at $207.03 – $207.71, combining trend lines and moving averages
- A secondary support zone at $200.04 – $200.25
On the upside, resistance sits in the $215.95 – $220.15 zone, which aligns closely with the current 52-week high.
Conclusion
Welltower meets both the technical and fundamental criteria of the Minervini Trend Template and high-growth momentum investing. The stock exhibits strong uptrend characteristics (perfect technical rating, 80.9 RS), accelerating earnings and revenue growth, expanding margins, and upward estimate revisions – all in a sector (Diversified REITs) where it outperforms 86% of peers.
Investors looking for more candidates that fit this dual screening approach can explore the full list using the ChartMill screener that combines the Minervini Trend Template with high-growth momentum filters.