Happy Friday. I’ve spent the last 24 hours going back and forth on whether I need to hop on the “dad shoe” trend.
Stock futures are little changed this morning. The major indexes are coming off a down day.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Darkest before the dawn?
Wall Street returned to its hunt for artificial intelligence losers yesterday, once again zeroing in on software names. The three major averages all closed Thursday’s session in the red.
Here’s what to know:
- Private credit stocks also dropped after Blue Owl reigned in its investor liquidity on the heels of an asset sale.
- Meanwhile, concerns about U.S. tensions with Iran weighed on investor sentiment and sent oil prices rallying. President Donald Trump said yesterday that he’d decide whether to launch strikes against Iran “over the next probably 10 days.”
- Walmart closed more than 1% lower after providing soft guidance, but the retailer made up significant ground from its sharper declines earlier in the day.
- Despite yesterday’s pullback, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite is on track to snap its five-week losing streak — its longest such stretch since 2022.
2. Follow the numbers
Economic data nerds, rejoice: We’re getting December’s personal consumption expenditures price index report, also known as the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Gross domestic product, consumer spending and income data are also on the docket for this morning.
These reports follow yesterday’s data on the U.S. trade deficit, which came in at $901.5 billion for the full 2025 year. As CNBC’s Jeff Cox notes, that’s a 0.2% decrease from the prior year, despite Trump’s broad and steep tariffs.
Speaking of tariffs: There’s a chance the Supreme Court will rule on the legality of many of Trump’s levies this morning. Regardless of when the ruling comes and which way it sides, the court’s decision could have big implications for consumers and companies.
3. The retail leader board
There’s a new king of the retail jungle by one measure. Amazon dethroned Walmart in quarterly revenue for the first time ever.
Walmart said in its earnings release yesterday that it saw $180.5 billion in sales for the fourth quarter, below the $187.8 billion figure that Amazon reported earlier this month. As CNBC’s Annie Palmer reports, Walmart has been retail’s top quarterly revenue generator since 2012 and still ranks first in annual sales, though Amazon is catching up.
Meanwhile, Bath & Body Works announced this morning that it launched an authorized storefront on Amazon. It’s the home goods retailer’s latest push to hawk products outside of its namesake storefronts.
4. Silicon Valley’s RVs
In California, skyrocketing rents and a housing shortage are pushing an increasing number of people to live in RVs. As CNBC’s Kate Rogers and Jeff Kopp report, that’s created a shadow rental market led by what some are calling the “vanlords.”
It’s a particularly acute problem in Silicon Valley’s Santa Clara County, despite being home to Apple and Google, as well as some of the costliest zip codes in the country. Government data for the county shows the share of individuals sleeping in cars has jumped from 18% in 2019 to 37% last year.
Advocates say RVs are a popular option because they provide more autonomy than a shelter or streets. But there’s a network of people looking to cash in on others’ misfortunes by renting out aging RVs to those searching for housing without a lease or tenant protections.
5. Job hoppers, beware
Remember when job hopping was the key to big wage gains? That’s increasingly in the rearview mirror, data shows.
The gap between pay increases for workers staying and leaving jobs fell below 2 percentage points last month, according to the ADP. That’s down from a peak of 8.4 points in April 2022, when the “great resignation” was economists’ hot term.
To be sure, the pay outlook varies by industry. There’s still notable compensatory incentives for employees in sectors like construction or natural resources to switch jobs, while you’re better off staying for pay bumps in hospitality and leisure.