Gas Prices and Inflation Drag Trump's Economic Approval Down

CBS News reported on Sept. 28, 2026 that high inflation and elevated gasoline prices tied to the war with Iran have pushed President Trump's approval ratings on the economy to near-record lows, creating headwinds for Republican candidates in November, while Trump dismissed the surveys by saying "The polls are fake."

The cost of a tank of gasoline has become the most legible economic statistic in American politics, and right now it is working against the White House. CBS News reported Monday that high inflation and high gasoline prices, both attributed to the war with Iran, have pushed President Trump's approval ratings on the economy to near-record lows. The president's response, as relayed in the report: "The polls are fake."

That exchange — a measurable deterioration in sentiment on one side, a flat denial on the other — frames the final stretch before November's midterm elections. Correspondent Nancy Cordes reported for CBS MoneyWatch that the slide in economic approval is already creating headwinds for Republican candidates on the ballot this fall.

Why the pump price outruns every other data point

Economic approval is not built the way an economist would build it. Most voters do not track core services inflation or the breadth of payroll gains. They see two numbers repeatedly and involuntarily: the price posted on the sign at the gas station, and the total at the grocery checkout. Gasoline is unusual among consumer goods in that its price is advertised in large illuminated digits on nearly every commercial corridor in the country, updated continuously, whether or not you are buying.

That is why a war-driven energy shock transmits into political sentiment faster than almost any other macroeconomic event. There is no lag for a statistical release, no revision, no seasonal adjustment. When crude moves because of conflict in the Gulf, the retail price follows within weeks, and the political effect follows within weeks of that.

The administration's counter-argument — that the surveys themselves are unreliable — is a familiar one, but it does not change the underlying transmission mechanism. Whatever a voter thinks of polling methodology, they still filled the tank.

What the Iran conflict has done to the inflation picture

The CBS report ties the inflation and gasoline pressure directly to the war with Iran. That attribution matters for how durable the problem is. A demand-driven inflation, the kind that comes from an overheating labor market or excess stimulus, responds to interest rates. A supply shock originating in a shipping lane or an oil field does not, at least not quickly. Tighter policy can suppress demand around the edges, but it cannot restore barrels that are not reaching market.

The practical consequence for households is that energy costs leak into nearly everything else. Diesel prices set the cost of moving freight; freight costs set the shelf price of goods that have nothing to do with oil. Airlines, utilities, chemicals, agriculture, plastics — each has an energy input that eventually shows up in a consumer price. A conflict-driven energy shock therefore does not stay in the energy line of the inflation basket. It spreads, with a delay, across the report.

For a governing party heading into a midterm, that delay is unhelpful. Even if the conflict eased tomorrow, the pass-through already embedded in supply chains would keep showing up in prices for some months after.

Monday's close: a market that did not like the day either

Equity markets ended the Monday session lower across all three major benchmarks. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) closed at $765.61, down 0.74% from its prior close of $771.35, after trading in a range of $763.72 to $769.54. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, was the weakest of the three, closing at $736.53 for a 1.07% decline from $744.50, with a day range of $731.63 to $741.42. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: DIA) finished at $514.02, off 0.67% from $517.49. All figures are as of the last trade at 20:00 GMT on Sept. 28, 2026.

A single red session is not a referendum on anything. But the pattern is worth noting: the technology-heavy Nasdaq proxy fell furthest, the industrial-weighted Dow proxy least, and the broad index sat between them. That is the shape a market takes when investors mark down long-duration growth assets — the ones whose value depends most on what discount rate applies to earnings years from now. Persistent inflation raises that discount rate. Conflict-driven inflation raises it with less visibility on when it ends.

The midterm channel that actually reaches portfolios

Investors tend to treat elections as a sentiment event, then discover afterward that the real transmission is legislative. If economic approval stays near record lows through November and Republican candidates underperform as a result, the composition of Congress changes what is possible on tax, spending and energy policy for the following two years. That is a slow-moving variable, but it is a real one, and it is priced gradually rather than on election night.

There is also a shorter-term channel. A president facing near-record-low approval on the economy has strong political incentive to attack the most visible symptom — the pump price. Historically, the levers available to any administration in that position include releases from strategic reserves, pressure on refiners and exporters, and diplomatic movement on the underlying conflict. Each of those, if deployed, moves crude and refined product markets directly. Energy traders will be watching the approval numbers not as political data but as a leading indicator of policy intervention.

What to watch between now and the vote

Three things will determine whether this dynamic hardens or fades before ballots are counted.

• The trajectory of retail gasoline. Not the level on any given day, but the direction over consecutive weeks. Sentiment tracks change more than absolute price.
• Whether the conflict with Iran de-escalates. The energy premium in crude reflects risk to supply as much as actual disruption. Credible de-escalation removes part of that premium quickly.
• Whether goods inflation broadens. If price pressure stays concentrated in energy, it is reversible. If it has already migrated into food, shelter and services, it will outlast the headlines that caused it.

Approval numbers on the economy are, in effect, a lagging survey of household cash flow. They have deteriorated to near-record lows because the two most conspicuous prices in American life have gone up at once. Calling the polls fake does not alter the arithmetic households are doing at the register, and it is that arithmetic — not the survey — that will show up in November.

Key facts

• Trump economic approval: Near-record lows, per CBS News reporting on Sept. 28, 2026
• Stated cause: High inflation and high gasoline prices tied to the war with Iran
• S&P 500 proxy (SPY): $765.61 at the close, -0.74%, as of 20:00 GMT Sept. 28, 2026
• Nasdaq 100 proxy (QQQ): $736.53 at the close, -1.07%, the weakest of the three benchmarks

Frequently asked questions

What is driving the drop in Trump's economic approval?

CBS News reported on Sept. 28, 2026 that high inflation and high gasoline prices, both attributed to the war with Iran, have pushed President Trump's approval ratings on the economy to near-record lows. Gasoline prices are unusually visible to consumers because they are posted publicly and updated constantly, which makes them transmit into political sentiment faster than most economic data.

How did Trump respond to the polling?

According to the CBS News report by correspondent Nancy Cordes, the president dismissed the surveys with the statement "The polls are fake." The report did not indicate any change in the underlying economic conditions that the polling reflects, namely elevated inflation and elevated gasoline prices linked to the conflict with Iran.

Why does a war-driven inflation behave differently from other inflation?

Inflation caused by strong demand responds to higher interest rates, because tighter policy cools spending. Inflation caused by a supply shock in oil or shipping does not respond the same way, since rate policy cannot restore barrels that are not reaching market. Energy costs also pass through to freight, food and manufactured goods with a delay, spreading beyond the energy category.

How did the major stock benchmarks close on Sept. 28, 2026?

All three fell. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust closed at $765.61, down 0.74% from a prior close of $771.35. The Invesco QQQ Trust, tracking the Nasdaq 100, closed at $736.53, down 1.07% from $744.50. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust finished at $514.02, down 0.67% from $517.49, all as of 20:00 GMT.

What is the connection between economic approval and the midterm elections?

CBS News reported that the near-record-low economic approval ratings are creating headwinds for Republican candidates running in November. Economic sentiment historically influences how voters assess the governing party. For investors, the relevant channel is legislative: the composition of Congress shapes what is achievable on tax, spending and energy policy over the following two years.

Why should energy traders watch presidential approval numbers?

A president facing near-record-low approval on the economy has strong incentive to act on the most visible symptom, the retail gasoline price. Options historically used by administrations in that position include strategic reserve releases, pressure on refiners and exporters, and diplomatic movement on the underlying conflict. Each of those can move crude and refined product markets directly.

Sources

• High inflation, gas prices push Trump approval ratings down: "The polls are fake," he says — CBS MoneyWatch

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