Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.6% to US$32.98 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$3.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 3.3% to hit US$0.23 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the 35 analysts covering Chipotle Mexican Grill are now predicting revenues of US$13.0b in 2026. If met, this would reflect an okay 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$1.11, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$13.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.13 in 2026. So it’s pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there’s been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$43.50, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Chipotle Mexican Grill at US$52.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$35.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don’t appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Chipotle Mexican Grill’s past performance and to peers in the same industry. It’s pretty clear that there is an expectation that Chipotle Mexican Grill’s revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 9.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Chipotle Mexican Grill is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there’s been no major change in the business’ prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$43.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Chipotle Mexican Grill going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Chipotle Mexican Grill Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.